SleetStormNJ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 that isn't what you did though. you posted that one will cave to the other without any reasoning. in fact, the GFS and NAM handle many of the features differently, although reaching a somewhat similar result. I never said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Big differences vs 12z NAM at 5h. It's still out of its best range where we can take it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I never said that. my apologies, i thought you were the original poster that I had replied to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Because this isn't a storm where you can have an "up the middle of the spread" approach. This pattern will either allow for a bomb inside the benchmark, or a weak/strung out storm. what is your reasoning for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Healthy little 3-6 incher for southern NJ The NAM has lots of mixing for SNJ.... that being said why bother with it outside of it's accurate range... Just yesterday the NAM had much more QPF for today's clipper and only backed off during this morning's runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The NAM has lots of mixing for SNJ.... that being said why bother with it outside of it's accurate range... Just yesterday the NAM had much more QPF for today's clipper and only backed off during this morning's runs.... I don't think anyone in their right mind takes the NAM too seriously at more than a day or so out.....However, this is a thread where we post about model runs. Taken as is, this run gives southern NJ 3-6" of snow following the rain and mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Extreme southern nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 what is your reasoning for this? Look at the H5 patterns on each camp. You have a kicker over the northern states, that if it does not get involved in the correct manner, will ultimately lead to a strung out system like you see on the UKMET, NAM, and GFS. If we manage to have a more favorable phase and a trough axis that's slightly west so this can come up this coast and deepen significantly, then you'll see something similar to the storm that the foreign models have. It's starting to look like things are a bit more complicated than they previously were since the timing and position of any additional shortwaves dropping out of Canada will not be correctly understood yet. We had the same issue during the February Blizzard last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam-hires/00/nam-hires_namer_060_200_wnd_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 You know its bad when the NAM on a funky bad run gives us more snow than the GFS is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam-hires/00/nam-hires_namer_060_200_wnd_ht.gif there he is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Not seeing the nam amped up is not good don't care what anyone says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18z vs. 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Not seeing the nam amped up is not good don't care what anyone says Well, its inside of 72 hours as far as when its near NYC, the NAM's amped bias tends to be from 72 to 84 hours, inside of that it can be highly variable from 36 to 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Not seeing the nam amped up is not good don't care what anyone saysIt's amped, just not quite the outcome we want to see. That being said, the system trended significantly West and sharper. It really begins to dig as it rounds the bend, but it's having trouble resolving the shortwaves. The Nam not delivering is a little suspect imho because at h5 everything is coming together and then it just shunts the storm east in a weird/funky set up. Could it get kicked? With this pattern, of course. However, with the set up, especially what it's showing when the low is near obx, the storm should not have ended up strung out and shunted east (in the model outcome) . United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Look at the H5 patterns on each camp. You have a kicker over the northern states, that if it does not get involved in the correct manner, will ultimately lead to a strung out system like you see on the UKMET, NAM, and GFS. If we manage to have a more favorable phase and a trough axis that's slightly west so this can come up this coast and deepen significantly, then you'll see something similar to the storm that the foreign models have. It's starting to look like things are a bit more complicated than they previously were since the timing and position of any additional shortwaves dropping out of Canada will not be correctly understood yet. We had the same issue during the February Blizzard last year. We have these types of scenarios/interactions on a thread the needle basis for a lot of the big ones. Some play out, some wither. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 0z Nice strung out trio of lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Not seeing the nam amped up is not good don't care what anyone says We have the SREF West which is good. The NAM not jiving with the SREF is a red flag. The NAM is likely the outlier as the SREF has some nice clustering inside the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 We have these types of scenarios/interactions on a thread the needle basis for a lot of the big ones. Some play out, some wither. this storm does remind me somewhat of the february storm from last year. i can understand what you are saying, but I still think there is room for a scenario besides a bomb or OTS. In fact, the NAM itself isn't a total whiff.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 this storm does remind me somewhat of the february storm from last year. i can understand what you are saying, but I still think there is room for a scenario besides a bomb or OTS. In fact, the NAM itself isn't a total whiff....Yes but if the storm doesn't tilt and deepen, the pattern will scoot it right out to sea. Additionally, the shortwave behind it will act to kick it. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Im doing cmc pbp. Yanks is going the Ecmwf and Gfs. Who's doing thugs Pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Nice strung out trio of lows. Usually a good indicator that the NAM is struggling. Does it a lot with Miller A types for some reason. Wonder if it's a resolution issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Who's doing thugs Pbp Thankfully Yanks does. I'm not in the mood to catch that kind of flak if this run isn't anything less than the 12z ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The only apparent difference with the RGEM at 48 just seeing the surface so far to the NAM is that it is faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/NE/namNE_prec_precacc_084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Usually a good indicator that the NAM is struggling. Does it a lot with Miller A types for some reason. Wonder if it's a resolution issue.That's exactly what it is. The resolution helps it tremendously, but when it gets outside of its range (though once in a while it does this within 36 hours), the higher resolution acts as a double edged sword and the model cannot resolve all the players. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 That's exactly what it is. The resolution helps it tremendously, but when it gets outside of its range (though once in a while it does this within 36 hours), the higher resolution acts as a double edged sword and the model cannot resolve all the players. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer It pretty much assumes no limit to the atmosphere, thats why it generates 5.00 liquid sometimes 60 hours out in snowstorms, to the NAM the atmosphere is neverendingly convective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It pretty much assumes no limit to the atmosphere, thats why it generates 5.00 liquid sometimes 60 hours out in snowstorms, to the NAM the atmosphere is neverendingly convective.Thank you for the information. (I mean that sincerely by the way) United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 I don't know if I'll make the Euro tonight. I'll probably look at the GFS and GGEM and decide if it's worth it. Tomorrow night will be much more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/NE/namNE_prec_precacc_084.gif keep em comin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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