IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 18z RGEM is drier NW but also snowier there. The ice threat shifted a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 LOL at these new ads on here when you're on a phone, I just found myself wondering why someone attached a photo of a chick in prison gear to their post She told the forum it wouldn't snow. It will be interesting to see whether the GFS is correct in scaling back the amount of precipitation after the ECMWF had increased it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Jeez the rgem has a lot of snow for me I. Far western Essex elevation of 560 feet will help also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 18z Rgem took away the majority of the rain for NYC. Only 6mm of precip now as rain. 11mm as snow 4mm as ice Always be careful with off hour RGEM runs, they tend to do odd things sometimes although this one did not so much. It changes the front end over to ice faster but has more snow on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yep, we've been through this situation many times in Middlesex/Union/SI. My guess is this is a reflection of how complex the system is and slight differences in opinions between the offices and lack of time to reach consensus at the "boundary conditions" lol - one office will be right and one won't, since the discontinuity, as shown, is an impossible outcome (unless there were perfect banding that stopped right at the borders of these counties). "Opinion" being the keyword, because not only does actual data play a big part in putting together a forecast but the forecasters opinion does as well, albeit a smaller role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 I've lost all faith in the GFS, it's been worse than the NAVGEM which is sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 does this automatically update.. Yes... it updates hourly starting around 20 minutes past the hour. That's probably why you see the images "jump" when its in the middle an update cycle which takes about 15 minutes to produce all the images. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_2d_alb.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Ok dumb question, is it the gfs or gfes..didn't gfs retire? It's still called the GFS. The GEFS is the Global Ensemble Forecasting System. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yes... it updates hourly starting around 20 minutes past the hour. That's probably why you see the images "jump" when its in the middle an update cycle which takes about 15 minutes to produce all the images. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_2d_alb.php thanks again, great resource Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 pic didnt work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The GFS is definately been off its game for this event... very strong systematic bias in suppressing the coastal cyclone from 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 For the most part each model snow map output lays down at least 4" in a swath through north central nj but point and clicks don't match. Are all the snow maps that bad for each model output? Just wondering. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LnbWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 So consensus across board seem to 2-4" which I'm pretty content with for this winter. Upton is much more bullish though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 pic didnt work ahh yea it was my logged in one. sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Radar looks very impressive. Almost feel as if the GFS may bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Radar looks very impressive. Almost feel as if the GFS may bust. I have no doubt the GFS will bust, hasn't put 2 similar runs together yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 not such great collaboration, as often happens along I-95 between Middlesex County in the Mt. Holly CWA and Union/SI in the Upton CWA. 1-2" for my area in northern Middlesex, adjacent to 3-4" amounts immediately to our north and east and you'd figure we'd get at least what SI gets, given that we're further inland at the same latitude. The do have 0.10-0.25" of freezing rain falling in our area, though, which would surprise me. http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter Just watched the NYC TV forecasts and they're even further apart than the NWS offices. Just comparing NYC metro forecasts (NYC proper, i.e., the 5 boroughs, NENJ adjacent to NYC within ~5 miles of the Hudson/Arthur Kill, and western Nassau), Channel 7 had 1-3" forecast, Channel 2 had 0-2" forecast, and Channel 4 had 2-5" forecast, while TWC has 3-5" forecast. I guess the bottom line is this variability simply reflects how complex and difficult this forecast is. Talk about discrepancies, although I'd rather have that than having them all hugging the same model. Would be cool if they included a little graphic highlighting their forecast basis, like the NWS does in the AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This is now 2 major fails by the new GFS OP inside it's first 10 days . This upgraded model has the same S E bias that it's been notorious for . The fact that this models glaring weakness was not addressed in its upgrade is a sad reminder that there are some who really believe it didn't exist. 0 for 2 and another 3 day OTS forecast gets put on file. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This is now 2 major fails by the new GFS OP inside it's first 10 days . This upgraded model has the same S E bias that it's been notorious for . The fact that this models glaring weakness was not addressed in its upgrade is a sad reminder that there are some who really believe it didn't exist. 0 for 2 and another 3 day OTS forecast gets put on file. You only need to be accurate under 48 hours for a weather forecast. Most people only are concerned with this is my understanding. GFS had the storm. Question is on the precip totals at this point. I am little concerned when lookiing at the radar, GFS may be a little light on the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Having reviewed some of the latest data...and factoring in climatological normals...the projected track of the cyclone...and a few other items...I think many parts of Long Island are looking at a total snowfall in the 5 to 10 inch range...with about 3 to 6 inches before any changeover...and another 2 to 4 inches during the afternoon hours...assuming a change back to accumulating snow. It is late January...a very favorable time of the year...the water is cold...the track is fairly favorable...not too much warm air is going to be advected onshore or even aloft...I don't see it getting too much warmer than maybe 1 C at 850 mb...and that is within the normal error range of most of these models. TWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Having reviewed some of the latest data...and factoring in climatological normals...the projected track of the cyclone...and a few other items...I think many parts of Long Island are looking at a total snowfall in the 5 to 10 inch range...with about 3 to 6 inches before any changeover...and another 2 to 4 inches during the afternoon hours...assuming a change back to accumulating snow. It is late January...a very favorable time of the year...the water is cold...the track is fairly favorable...not too much warm air is going to be advected onshore or even aloft...I don't see it getting too much warmer than maybe 1 C at 850 mb...and that is within the normal error range of most of these models. TWT. What are your thoughts in my local area.( not that it can vary that much from the current forecast) your call will catch alot of people off guard on the island. Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Having reviewed some of the latest data...and factoring in climatological normals...the projected track of the cyclone...and a few other items...I think many parts of Long Island are looking at a total snowfall in the 5 to 10 inch range...with about 3 to 6 inches before any changeover...and another 2 to 4 inches during the afternoon hours...assuming a change back to accumulating snow. It is late January...a very favorable time of the year...the water is cold...the track is fairly favorable...not too much warm air is going to be advected onshore or even aloft...I don't see it getting too much warmer than maybe 1 C at 850 mb...and that is within the normal error range of most of these models. TWT. Not too shabby without a high to the north of us. I've got a hunch this storm might surprise some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Having reviewed some of the latest data...and factoring in climatological normals...the projected track of the cyclone...and a few other items...I think many parts of Long Island are looking at a total snowfall in the 5 to 10 inch range...with about 3 to 6 inches before any changeover...and another 2 to 4 inches during the afternoon hours...assuming a change back to accumulating snow. It is late January...a very favorable time of the year...the water is cold...the track is fairly favorable...not too much warm air is going to be advected onshore or even aloft...I don't see it getting too much warmer than maybe 1 C at 850 mb...and that is within the normal error range of most of these models. TWT. I really hope you're right. The precip right now looks quite robust. Is it ahead of schedule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Pamela ...what's your thoughts .for Nyc and 5 boroughs ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 So you think Upton, and majority of my media outlets are under doing this storm and in fact the weather channels 3-5 inch range seems more accurate, of them all? I'm looking that thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Updated at about 7pm though I think it's basically same sine 4pm...NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- FORECAST ON TRACK. MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY T/TD/WINDS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN THIS EVENING FROM THE SW. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE MET AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. -- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A QUICK MOVING BUT RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON SLIDING TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...WHILE INTERACTING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THE TREND HAS BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSIFYING SHORTWAVE...WITH FULL PHASING AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPMENT NE OF THE REGION. SIMILARLY MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON QUICKLY TRACKING NE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND NOW INSIDE OF THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK BY SATURDAY EVENING. ALL OF THE ABOVE POINTS TO AN INTENSE BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEM...WITH A FASTER...MORE WESTWARD TRACK...AND SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. WITH NO HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...A MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE. THERMAL PROFILES AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POINTS TOWARDS CONDITIONS COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO START AS SNOW FOR ALL AREAS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOULD BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FROM SW TO NE BTWN 4-7AM WITH STRONG WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT AND STRONG LIFT FROM A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. 1+ INCH SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES...AN E/SE LLJ JET BEGINS TO ADVECT +1-4C 850-900MB AIR FROM S TO N FOR ALL BUT FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION PRECIP TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FROM S TO N...BTWN 6AM AND 8AM FOR NY/NJ METRO AND COASTAL AREAS...AND MID MORNING TO MIDDAY WORKING INTO MUCH OF INTERIOR. INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOR THE NY/NJ METRO AND COASTAL PLAIN...THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR GETS IN ALOFT FOR A CHANGE TO MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP (RAIN/FREEZING RAIN) FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A BIT FARTHER N AND W...THIS WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF SLEET...SNOW...AND FREEZING RAIN. WHILE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SW CT WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT. THERMAL PROFILES ARE ONE ISSUE...BUT THE OTHER ISSUE IS BANDING PLACEMENT AND QPF. BASED ON WESTWARD ENSEMBLE OPER MODEL TREND...HAVE INCREASED QPF BY ABOUT 1/4 INCH ACROSS THE BOARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SWEET SPOT FOR DEFORMATION BANDING POTENTIAL AND COLDER THERMAL PROFILE SAT AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE ACROSS INTERIOR SW CT AND NORTHEASTERN HUDSON VALLEY ZONES...WITH THE HIGHEST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THREAT. IN TERMS OF SNOW AMOUNTS...THE TOUGH PART OF THIS FORECAST IS THAT WE COULD BE LOOKING AT 1+ INCH SNOWFALL RATES AS WE ARE ARE TRANSITIONING SATURDAY MORNING...SO A 1-2 HR TIMING DIFFERENCE IN CHANGEOVER COULD BE A 1 TO 3 INCH DIFFERENCE IN SNOWFALL. FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO AND COAST MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUM SHOULD BE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. A GENERAL 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE STILL LOOKS REASONABLE THERE...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SW CT. AGAIN WITH BEST BANDING POTENTIAL AND WESTWARD MODEL DRIFT ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SW CT ZONES AND PUTNAM COUNTY...5 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED THERE...AND A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. IN TERM OF FREEZING RAIN THREAT...ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE FROM THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW SHOULD KEEP WINDS MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE STORM. THIS TYPICALLY PROMOTES COLD AIR DRAINAGE DOWN THE HUDSON AND CT RIVER VALLEYS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD SURFACE TEMPS NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW FOR NY/NJ METRO...NORTH SHORE OF LI...AND COASTAL SW/SC CT THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING(AFTER CHANGEOVER). SO POTENTIAL OF UP TO TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION AWAY FROM SOUTH COASTAL LI/NYC IN THE MORNING. HEAVIEST ICE ACCRETION LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN CT...WITH WARMER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT BUT SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ICE HERE. IN TERMS OF WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SAT AFTERNOON...PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 30S. A PEAK GUST TO 40 MPH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT. ACROSS LI AND COASTAL CT...HEAVY RAIN SAT MORN/EARLY AFT AND EARLIER SNOW MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES APPEARS TO COOL ENOUGH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR A CHANGE BACK TO SLEET THEN SNOW DOWN TO COAST...BUT QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH PRECIP IS LEFT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR SOUTH BANDING POTENTIAL EXISTS...AND WILL NOT LIKELY BECOME CLEAR UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON. WITH PROGRESSIVE TREND OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTING ADDITIONAL ACCUM FOR THE METRO/COAST TO BE LIGHT (COATING TO 3 INCHES) MID-LATE SAT AFT INTO EARLY SAT EVE FOR NY/NJ METRO AND COAST AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE SWEET SPOT FOR DEFORMATION BANDING SAT AFTERNOON STILL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT ZONES. ANY SNOW COMES TO AND END LATE SAT AFTERNOON/EARLY SAT EVENING...WITH BREEZY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS SAT NIGHT. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 What are your thoughts in my local area.( not that it can vary that much from the current forecast) your call will catch alot of people off guard on the island. Best. Probably 6 to 12 inches over western Passaic / eastern Sussex Counties...certainly no changeover to liquid...maybe a brief period of sleet at the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Pamela ...what's your thoughts .for Nyc and 5 boroughs ? Probably 4 to 8 inches...least in Staten Island...where the warming aloft will intrude first...and that afternoon band appears to be focused a bit to the east...so they have two things going against them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 So you think Upton, and majority of my media outlets are under doing this storm and in fact the weather channels 3-5 inch range seems more accurate, of them all? I'm looking that thinking No... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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