IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Or you could use Ewall. Still looks like a very messy CCB like SnowGoose and Forky stated. I don't like ewall for the 4k NAM. I've never found it to look like the rest of the versions out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 please come on and post more - some of the best posts of the entire board.... Thanks ... I think its always important to try to figure out what is causing a given model solution. That way it can help us to understand why we sometimes see counterintuitive solutions (e.g. precipitation shield smaller yet has higher precipitation amounts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 18z Rgem is about 30mm of precip through 18z tomorrow and it appears there's a backend forming at that time. So a pretty wet run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 upton updated: not such great collaboration, as often happens along I-95 between Middlesex County in the Mt. Holly CWA and Union/SI in the Upton CWA. 1-2" for my area in northern Middlesex, adjacent to 3-4" amounts immediately to our north and east and you'd figure we'd get at least what SI gets, given that we're further inland at the same latitude. The do have 0.10-0.25" of freezing rain falling in our area, though, which would surprise me. http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NYC and LI get it good too, this is why I said the whole area receives it. 0112.png Does that CCB come thru at about 2PM? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Here is the CCB as it crosses NJ. Keep in mind that surface temps at this point are right on the border of 32. 0111.png What are the sea surface temps like right now off of LI and NJ? I think that may play a key factor in how much mixing/change over given where the low is forecast to be centered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Reports of snow in DC. Earlier than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Mt.Holly keeps the WWA for my area, actually they lowered the snowfall amounts slighty from 2-4" to 1-3" with 0.15" of ice expected. I have a feeling this may get increased as the storm is occuring. In addition the is in effect from 7pm this evening until 8am tomorrow morning so it was extended from the previous adivsory which went into effect at 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 19z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I would like to throw some caution into the recent 4-km NAM simulation... the latest (18z) run was quite aggressive with precipitation near the mid-atlantic coastline. This results in a lot of the moisture that is being fed into the system to be "rained out"... reducing the downstream moisture flux available for additional precipitation that would likely be frozen in nature (such as over the baroclinic zone over NY/PA/NJ ect.). This will need to be watched the next 6-12 hours, as it resulted in substantially reduced precipitation amounts over the southeast this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 not such great collaboration, as often happens along I-95 between Middlesex County in the Mt. Holly CWA and Union/SI in the Upton CWA. 1-2" for my area in northern Middlesex, adjacent to 3-4" amounts immediately to our north and east and you'd figure we'd get at least what SI gets, given that we're further inland at the same latitude. The do have 0.10-0.25" of freezing rain falling in our area, though, which would surprise me. http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter Ughhh, not ice! And .25 is no joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 19z HRRR valid at 05z. (Midnight) hrrr1.png That is valid at 5am EST. And if you want to total QPF amounts at that point: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_refl_alb.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Mt. Holly is not feeling it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 19z HRRR valid at 05z. (Midnight) hrrr1.png That's valid at 10z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 not such great collaboration, as often happens along I-95 between Middlesex County in the Mt. Holly CWA and Union/SI in the Upton CWA. 1-2" for my area in northern Middlesex, adjacent to 3-4" amounts immediately to our north and east and you'd figure we'd get at least what SI gets, given that we're further inland at the same latitude. The do have 0.10-0.25" of freezing rain falling in our area, though, which would surprise me. http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter This is not surprising, this corridor is usually the "wildcard" so to speak. This just shows the gaps IMO of the lack of collaboration between NWS offices at times, we have seen this happen in this area many times before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 LOL at these new ads on here when you're on a phone, I just found myself wondering why someone attached a photo of a chick in prison gear to their post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick5892 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 LOL at these new ads on here when you're on a phone, I just found myself wondering why someone attached a photo of a chick in prison gear to their post Hahahah! That's happened to my like 4 different times today. Once in a while you'll get some bikini ad tho and that always is entertaining haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 That's valid at 10z Yeah oops, I don't know what I was looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 LOL at these new ads on here when you're on a phone, I just found myself wondering why someone attached a photo of a chick in prison gear to their post You're not the only one. It will be interesting to see where the battle line sets up im not so sure nyc goes over to a plain rain, hell I could see brooklyn raining and the northern bronx fighting back and fourth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 You're not the only one. It will be interesting to see where the battle line sets up im not so sure nyc goes over to a plain rain, hell I could see brooklyn raining and the northern bronx fighting back and fourth. yep i'm in that battle zone and my snow totals up in my location are usually in +2 category..which means bk and lower manhattan gets 4 inches and i usually end up at 6,also whats interesting about this is that northern manhattan and bronx do have some elevation but not much to directly affect the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS? How's it looking so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Mt. Holly is not feeling it at all. RGEM says they are right S of the Driscoll bridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 LOL at the GFS. It was initially further NW and ended up weaker and a bit southeast. Someone should really just take it out back and put it out of its misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This is not surprising, this corridor is usually the "wildcard" so to speak. This just shows the gaps IMO of the lack of collaboration between NWS offices at times, we have seen this happen in this area many times before. Yep, we've been through this situation many times in Middlesex/Union/SI. My guess is this is a reflection of how complex the system is and slight differences in opinions between the offices and lack of time to reach consensus at the "boundary conditions" lol - one office will be right and one won't, since the discontinuity, as shown, is an impossible outcome (unless there were perfect banding that stopped right at the borders of these counties). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 That is valid at 5am EST. And if you want to total QPF amounts at that point: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_refl_alb.php does this automatically update.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 18z Rgem took away the majority of the rain for NYC. Only 6mm of precip now as rain. 11mm as snow 4mm as ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 18z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Thanks ... I think its always important to try to figure out what is causing a given model solution. That way it can help us to understand why we sometimes see counterintuitive solutions (e.g. precipitation shield smaller yet has higher precipitation amounts). Agree, you are a huge asset to this forum. Good to have you here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Ok dumb question, is it the gfs or gfes..didn't gfs retire? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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