ag3 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 4km NAM also agrees with Rgem. Deform backend snows for the coast and LI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 What we've learned is that the new Goofus is just as bad as the old Goofus. New computers and same old GFS. Increasing model resolution but keeping the same cumulus parameterization will still create significant convective feedback problems. In fact it might exacerbate those problems. The GFS (and the ECMWF to an extent) for this system have had convective feedback problems that were originally over-intensifying the surface cyclone and preventing poleward moisture flux. You aren't going to be able to handle these sub-synoptic details until you get < 24 h which is what we are seeing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 What about our area? Whatever snow you receive, good luck. Personally, I don't think it will be more than 2 inches with the mixing issues involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The ECMWF does have a elevated warm nose like Phil mentioned, it's just not as pronounced as the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The ECMWF does have a elevated warm nose like Phil mentioned, it's just not as pronounced as the NAM What hour and what location is this? If it's Accuwx, the lat-lon for NYC is for KJFK, if I'm not mistaken. Which would be warmer then Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looks like precip is going to come in WAY Earlier. 39 degrees atm, projected high was 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Interesting experimental graphic from Mt. Holly snow.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 4km NAM also agrees with Rgem. Deform backend snows for the coast and LI: it's really hitting the dynamic cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Here is what I was talking about with the NAM before... note how the temperature gradient is tighter in the 18z run vs. the 12z run over NYC. The winds along this temperature gradient are strongly convergent over the temperature gradient, which implies frontogenesis. Stronger Temperature Gradient + Convergent Flow --> Stronger Frontogenesis ---> More Vertical Motion ---> More Precipitation. There isn't as much precipitation on the northern edge because the frontogenesis is confined further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 How can they say 0% of 8+ for so many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Wow Upton is sticking with an advisory for Orange County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 4km NAM has the coast the same as the magical NWNJ area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think the higher resolution causes it to overreact to every little change and causes worse run to run swing I used to figure when the euro and GFS were in sync, forecasts were higher confidence, but now it's like one eye blind. Euro plus what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 What hour and what location is this? If it's Accuwx, the lat-lon for NYC is for KJFK, if I'm not mistaken. Which would be warmer then Central Park. It's ten miles west of HPN @ 30 hours NYC (manual lat/lon) has the warm layer @ 900mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 4km NAM also agrees with Rgem. Deform backend snows for the coast and LI: Storm Vista shows the CCB ripping over NJ and NYC before it gets to LI. It pretty much nails the whole area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Here is what I was talking about with the NAM before... note how the temperature gradient is tighter in the 18z run vs. the 12z run over NYC. The winds along this temperature gradient are strongly convergent over the temperature gradient, which implies frontogenesis. Stronger Temperature Gradient + Convergent Flow --> Stronger Frontogenesis ---> More Vertical Motion ---> More Precipitation. There isn't as much precipitation on the northern edge because the frontogenesis is confined further south. please come on and post more - some of the best posts of the entire board.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Storm Vista shows the CCB ripping over NJ and NYC before it gets to LI. It pretty much nails the whole area. Maps? It's ten miles west of HPN @ 30 hours NYC (manual lat/lon) has the warm layer @ 900mb Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 4km NAM has the coast the same as the magical NWNJ area: Where did this come from? Why is it always a coast versus inland battle with you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 There is obviously going to be the need for alot of nowcasting for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Upton raised NYC and it's boroughs to 3"-6" on the point and clicks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Maps? Thanks. You know that SV maps aren't allowed to be posted, but once WxBell updates I will show it. The problem with tropicaltidbits is the 3hr intervals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Here is the CCB as it crosses NJ. Keep in mind that surface temps at this point are right on the border of 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmcrae66 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Wow Upton is sticking with an advisory for Orange County Wii ter storm warning for norther Fairfield. Have to think orange changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 You know that SV maps aren't allowed to be posted, but once WxBell updates I will show it. The problem with tropicaltidbits is the 3hr intervals. Or you could use Ewall. Still looks like a very messy CCB like SnowGoose and Forky stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 NYC and LI get it good too, this is why I said the whole area receives it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 How much faith can we put into the CCB prediction being made by the models? I remember similar CCB model outcomes for storms in the past that did not come to fruition. In particular Feb '14 comes to mind when the area got between 8-12" during the initial hours, then we had a dry period, and then the area was going to get slammed with the CCB, only to see flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I started a separate thread for storm observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Wii ter storm warning for norther Fairfield. Have to think orange changes. They increased my totals to 4-7, but didn't upgrade to warning as of yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think the higher resolution causes it to overreact to every little change and causes worse run to run swings Yes, because higher resolution models has more degrees of freedom to deviate from the initial conditions. Since the initial conditions aren't perfect (we introduce convective-scale errors which quickly grow upscale and influence the synoptic-scale. Global models don't typically have as much run to run variability because their initial conditions are more on the synoptic-scale which is actually better sampled (e.g. we sample long-wave troughs a lot better than we sample individual convective elements). Synoptic scale processes have higher predictability out the longer time scales, so you don't see as much run to run variability of global models in their first 24-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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