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Potential Major East Coast Storm on Saturday Part 2


IsentropicLift

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no offense taken - I did say a scraper - I was wrong - not a child and I can admit it.

 

I also said that SNE would do the best with this set up - and that part does look to be the case..

 

was I correct in my forecast, absolutely not... but I made one and went down with the ship - didnt change my tune with each run like 75% of the board did (not all)... 

 

I also never jumped on the crazy solution that the Euro showed Wednesday, how many can say the same thing?

 

Euro's crazy solution Wednesday is not that far off from today's models. Temps were 1-2 degrees too cold.

Surface track and strength aren't crazy off.

GFS was a complete joke.

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upton updated:

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

well 4-6 looks great right now for my location in the northwestern corner of the bronx and it seems the boundry layers are trending a bit cooler at the coast which can only increase the totals from here on out,still have a bit of time and see how this plays out as i mentioned last night in the banter thread nothing is set in stone yet..

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Euro's crazy solution Wednesday is not that far off from today's models. Temps were 1-2 degrees too cold.

Surface track and strength aren't crazy off.

GFS was a complete joke.

I was about to post the same thing.

 

The Euro's mistake was closing off at H5. That would have slowed things down and allowed the surface low to really bomb out. The front end looks good pretty much everywhere and the back end CCB is the wildcard.

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4-6" for my area..seems a good call from UPTON.

Yup looks good for us. I think we have a decent shot at 6. Do you believe that fire at Avalon in Edgewater? Unreal. I have 1 co-worker who lived there. My building in Cliffside Park is taking donations for the displaced residents.

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Euro's crazy solution Wednesday is not that far off from today's models. Temps were 1-2 degrees too cold.

Surface track and strength aren't crazy off.

GFS was a complete joke.

It had the setup backwards, the Euro had the crazy CCB which is gone but no front end snow, the GFS though was really out to lunch.

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What are you talking about? Albany?

 

Yea it looks like we are the cutoff up here.

 

The structure of the 850-hPa low supports why there is a more confined precipitation corridor... more focused region of frontogenesis over NYC means higher precipitation rates where temp gradient is the strongest, but sharper northern edge of the precipitation since the tightening of the temperature gradient is occurring further south. 

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It had the setup backwards, the Euro had the crazy CCB which is gone but no front end snow, the GFS though was really out to lunch.

 

Euro was the best by far with this event.

Every other model played catch up.

GFS was the worst by far. Horrible.

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Yup looks good for us. I think we have a decent shot at 6. Do you believe that fire at Avalon in Edgewater, unreal. I have 1 co-worker who lived there. My building in Cliffside Park is taking donations for the displaced residents.

Yeap I also think we have a chance for 6, we always do good compare to cities around us... about the fire, pretty awful. Many business are taking donations.. amazing how big it was.

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Yeap I also think we have a chance for 6, we always do good compare to cities around us... about the fire, pretty awful. Many business are taking donations.. amazing how big it was.

Our area was lucky the wind was not out of the North that night. We would have all been choking on toxic smoke.

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