Animal Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 hr 24 precip total. Solid snow event for many if you stay snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 What are you talking about? Albany? The backedge of nothing shifted about 30 miles southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 So the main thing going on here is the precip shield seems to becoming more compact. It's going to be a sharper cutoff if you're unlucky enough to be too far NW. I'll be at work tomorrow at West Point in Orange County, I think I'll be far enough North not to mix, and far enough South not to get cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 It really tries to close off at H5 near the benchmark. Just doesn't quite make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 nw nj makes out like bandits if this run verifies ccb as well, mid levels never go over 32 past mmu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Critical frames for in and around NYC..... NAM wants a thump of snow (09z) ..Also has low south of LI at 15z, Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 NJ gets the most on the backend this run because the mid-level cyclones track too close to LI and dry slot the area. They get some but a lot of it lifts northeast into SNE instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Last three hours of HRRR are seriously speeding up the arrival time of this thing tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Are current obs further south hinting towards a different solution than currently progged by some of the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 upton updated: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 total qpf through hr 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 no offense taken - I did say a scraper - I was wrong - not a child and I can admit it. I also said that SNE would do the best with this set up - and that part does look to be the case.. was I correct in my forecast, absolutely not... but I made one and went down with the ship - didnt change my tune with each run like 75% of the board did (not all)... I also never jumped on the crazy solution that the Euro showed Wednesday, how many can say the same thing? Euro's crazy solution Wednesday is not that far off from today's models. Temps were 1-2 degrees too cold. Surface track and strength aren't crazy off. GFS was a complete joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 4-6" for my area..seems a good call from UPTON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 upton updated: well 4-6 looks great right now for my location in the northwestern corner of the bronx and it seems the boundry layers are trending a bit cooler at the coast which can only increase the totals from here on out,still have a bit of time and see how this plays out as i mentioned last night in the banter thread nothing is set in stone yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Warmest NAM frame for NYC and surrounding (09z) .. drops after to <0C. Surface are around 32-33F till 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Euro's crazy solution Wednesday is not that far off from today's models. Temps were 1-2 degrees too cold. Surface track and strength aren't crazy off. GFS was a complete joke. I was about to post the same thing. The Euro's mistake was closing off at H5. That would have slowed things down and allowed the surface low to really bomb out. The front end looks good pretty much everywhere and the back end CCB is the wildcard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 4-6" for my area..seems a good call from UPTON. Yup looks good for us. I think we have a decent shot at 6. Do you believe that fire at Avalon in Edgewater? Unreal. I have 1 co-worker who lived there. My building in Cliffside Park is taking donations for the displaced residents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Euro's crazy solution Wednesday is not that far off from today's models. Temps were 1-2 degrees too cold. Surface track and strength aren't crazy off. GFS was a complete joke. It had the setup backwards, the Euro had the crazy CCB which is gone but no front end snow, the GFS though was really out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 What are you talking about? Albany? Yea it looks like we are the cutoff up here. The structure of the 850-hPa low supports why there is a more confined precipitation corridor... more focused region of frontogenesis over NYC means higher precipitation rates where temp gradient is the strongest, but sharper northern edge of the precipitation since the tightening of the temperature gradient is occurring further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 What we've learned is that the new Goofus is just as bad as the old Goofus. New computers and same old GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It had the setup backwards, the Euro had the crazy CCB which is gone but no front end snow, the GFS though was really out to lunch. Euro was the best by far with this event. Every other model played catch up. GFS was the worst by far. Horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Central nj looks screwed. We might have more ice than snow concerns if the surface stays cold. The best snows are another 30 miles N&W or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 What we've learned is that the new Goofus is just as bad as the old Goofus. New computers and same old GFS. I think it's SE bias is even worse. It was incredibly terrible last Sunday and with tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yup looks good for us. I think we have a decent shot at 6. Do you believe that fire at Avalon in Edgewater, unreal. I have 1 co-worker who lived there. My building in Cliffside Park is taking donations for the displaced residents. Yeap I also think we have a chance for 6, we always do good compare to cities around us... about the fire, pretty awful. Many business are taking donations.. amazing how big it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yeap I also think we have a chance for 6, we always do good compare to cities around us... about the fire, pretty awful. Many business are taking donations.. amazing how big it was. Our area was lucky the wind was not out of the North that night. We would have all been choking on toxic smoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 ski you should be fine in EB for this. I dont know why middlesex county has been in a snow hole this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think the higher resolution causes it to overreact to every little change and causes worse run to run swings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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