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Potential Major East Coast Storm on Saturday Part 2


IsentropicLift

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I would pick from HFD to Port Jefferson, LI because of the backside deformation band tomorrow afternoon.

 

That deformation band is going to be very sloppy, the mid-levels won't cool sufficiently to get good snow growth in this setup, it may be predominantly RASN or just snow that has very choppy radar echoes.

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I think what that Euro Weatherbell map is saying is, if all the QPF falls as snow at a 10:1. But we know from the temp profiles, it is not going to all fall as snow, right? So that map is not really useful, right? Or am I missing something?

Yes exactly. From my experience with those maps, they seem to take anything FROZEN as SNOW. They've been off many, many times...usually way off.

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Note: Any maps, images or charts from ECMWF (License) may never be posted or re-distributed (except for WMO-Essential). All other maps, images and charts from other models may be shared in moderation under the following conditions: The images may not be used for any commercial (revenue generating) purpose including, but not limited to, ad-supported websites or private consulting. Any images must be attributed to WeatherBell Analytics. If confused, ask Ryan. 

 

The scary part is that if you take a Euro/RGEM blend it's probably the worst ice storm for the interior in many years.

 

Yeah, the soundings on the ECMWF look pretty good up here. I'm not too convinced that we'll see a significant period of freezing rain or IP  since the winds mainly stay from the NE, but I'm still wary of some slight mixing since this air mass is still very marginal and there might be be a warm layer above 850mb.  

 

I think 4-6" is probably a good call for now based on how the 12z guidance came in. 

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I think what that Euro Weatherbell map is saying is, if all the QPF falls as snow at a 10:1.  But we know from the temp profiles, it is not going to all fall as snow, right?  So that map is not really useful, right?  Or am I missing something?

 

They are very basic snowfall maps that assume 10:1 ratios for the entire period. Plain and simple, they will not be accurate. 

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I don't think I am getting it. I am too far west. I believe HFD to FOK from north to south.

And why wont they get as much front end? To me, all guidance has changeover or weakening precip between 11z and 1z, pretty much everywhere.

If you want to believe the Euro, places like MMU never changeover.

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That deformation band is going to be very sloppy, the mid-levels won't cool sufficiently to get good snow growth in this setup, it may be predominantly RASN or just snow that has very choppy radar echoes.

Couldn't agree more. That's why I continue to think that 3" is the ceiling on the backend. If H5 had closed off it would be a different story. It's sort of like getting ready to have some adult fun and then realizing at the last minute that you forgot something.

 

nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_11.png

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The RGEM has had a warm bias too on ptypes this year, consistently been 30 miles on average too far north with changeover lines on almost every event

 

I'm buying what you're selling, regarding the surface temps away from the water and north of the cities. Wrote this in the Philly forum:

More like 6 hours, geez louise. I have this nagging feeling that ice is going to be an issue north of route 1, maybe along into the 202 corridor area. Call it the Lambertville to Bridewater strip. Still seeing the models give the idea that the low doesn't crank until it's under the best jet dynamics, but that doesn't happen until after it is around ACY. So the upper level trough axes suggest warming aloft for the southern 2/3 of the state, but if the winds never really blow hard off the ocean, and are NE by the time it starts to bomb, how are we not going to wetbulb down to 30/31/32 away from the immediate coastal plain? I think maybe some light icing for Philly-Trenton-New Brunswick, and maybe a little more Lambertville to Bridgewater.

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15Z SREF'S look wetter again

sref_namer_033_precip_p24.gif

Definitely wetter again. The interior should definitely do really well.....I'm wondering though how much will be snow as opposed to sleet or freezing rain. That's the big question we have as models continue to increase the moisture. I'm not too into the moisture at the end of the storm. I think Snowgoose will be correct.....it'll be a sloppy rain snow mix. Great job again today consistently posting useful pbp, maps, and thoughts
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15Z SREF'S look wetter again

 

sref_namer_033_precip_p24.gif

Since this storm is on the door step I'd like to give massive Kudos to IsentropicLift.  I've been tracking this thing since Monday and your pbp has been spot on.  Clear, concise and without interjecting any kind of bias.  I appreciate all the maps, data and insight.

 

Cheers!  :clap:  :clap:  :mapsnow: 

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