IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Anyone from TTN north does pretty well here, especially north of 80. 850 temps get to +1 over the NW burbs and +3 at the coast so there is some taint until you get to the 23, 287 interchange. Once NW of that it's pretty solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 How about kbdr for us ct peeps? BDR is about 0.90" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The Euro is colder at 850 near the coast at 12Z than any other guidance, I cannot see 925mb so maybe there is a warm layer there, but it may be snowier at the coast on the front end than its maps shows because it may think the surface is above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Some QPF numbers Sussex - 0.70" Oakland, NJ - 0.90" Somerset, NJ - 1.00" EWR - 1.10" NYC - 1.10" HPN - 0.90" ISP - 1.10" KMMU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 The Euro is colder at 850 near the coast at 12Z than any other guidance, I cannot see 925mb so maybe there is a warm layer there, but it may be snowier at the coast on the front end than its maps shows because it may think the surface is above freezing. The 925mb freezing line makes it back to MMU. 925mb low runs from Cape May to the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 KMMU? 0.85" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The Euro is colder at 850 near the coast at 12Z than any other guidance, I cannot see 925mb so maybe there is a warm layer there, but it may be snowier at the coast on the front end than its maps shows because it may think the surface is above freezing. There is a warm layer at 925mb. But it's not awful. PB would disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 If people on LI are wondering, there is zero chance of an all snow event there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The problem is that the setup is falling apart as the backend tries to organize. Combination of the kicker and the surface low slipping East. I think 1-2" are possible on the backend but it will need to be stronger in order to induce some dynamic cooling. Backend will be more on LI then in your area. So if you get 1"-2", then it's 2"-4" for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This storm has HUGE bust potential both good and bad. Nice to see the CCB appear back on most of the models. The low is close enough now to the coast where dynamics can come into play. Hopefully the hi-res models will continue with the cooling of the columns. From where I reside in Nutley, the dreaded rain-snow line will pretty much be on top of my house. That's OK, this hobby is what I live for. Get ready ladies and gents, its almost nowcast time!!! Nutley FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The Euro is colder at 850 near the coast at 12Z than any other guidance, I cannot see 925mb so maybe there is a warm layer there, but it may be snowier at the coast on the front end than its maps shows because it may think the surface is above freezing Is it because the storm closes off further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 If people on LI are wondering, there is zero chance of an all snow event there. I could see it being mostly snow though in a scenario where it came in like a monster and overcame the mid-level warming til basically the area semi dry slotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ordr Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 How's Norwalk in Fairfield County looking? I'm assuming its proximity to the coast will bring a quicker changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Backend will be more on LI then in your area. So if you get 1"-2", then it's 2"-4" for LI.I was thinking more along the lines of nothing out here on the back end and 1-2 on LI. The surface is too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's colder than most of the other guidance. Even for nyc and western LI. Although the surface is nw of 195 at hr 27 then 850 0c line is south of nyc and cuts through central suffolk. The Euro is colder at 850 near the coast at 12Z than any other guidance, I cannot see 925mb so maybe there is a warm layer there, but it may be snowier at the coast on the front end than its maps shows because it may think the surface is above freezing. I think the warm nose actually might be maximized above 850-hPa with this event... thats what the NAM was suggesting near the NYC coastline mid-morning tomorrow. Haven't looked at any ECMWF soundings though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Please no more IMBY questions. It's impossible to keep up. Look hard and you'll likely find your answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 I could see it being mostly snow though in a scenario where it came in like a monster and overcame the mid-level warming til basically the area semi dry slotted.Maybe on the north shore but eventually the surface torches. Almost 40F on the south shore by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I was thinking more along the lines of nothing out here on the back end and 1-2 on LI. The surface is too warm. Backend is coming from the north to south. By the time it develops, it's too late for anyone west of EWR. RGEM shows this perfectly: Hour 30 nothing: Hour 33, deform band coming down from CT to LI. Kind of like Jan. 26, 2011 HECS did but a bit further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Maybe on the north shore but eventually the surface torches. Almost 40F on the south shore by 00z. I'm not sure what torches the surface though, all model guidance has NE winds, so I continue to be baffled where the surface warmth comes from unless the EURO turns winds SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 starting to think more rain/mix than snow for Hoboken area - thinking I head out to Morris County for this one.. we still looking at a 12AM - 12PM window for the most part? will help with the decision Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Backend is coming from the north to south. By the time it develops, it's too late for anyone west of EWR. RGEM shows this perfectly: Hour 30 nothing: Hour 33, deform band coming down to LI: But it moves through quickly and surface temps are in the mid 30's at best. As I said, 1-2" out that way, nothing West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 If I could pick any place to be with this one I'd pick HPN. The actual airport, think that's the JP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 its a disaster in marginal temperature profile situations... at one point last year it had me getting 18-24" and about 1" of rain ended up falling before a few inches on the back end it doesnt take into account the whole column for snowfall predictions i dont think That was the HRRR you were thinking of. I specifically remember that event because of the ludicrous snowfall numbers it was throwing out. Meanwhile the RAP was much more reasonable and ended up nailing the storm. I remember siding with the RAP because when a short term model shows something too good to be true, it usually isn't true. A good rule to abide by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 But it moves through quickly and surface temps are in the mid 30's at best. As I said, 1-2" out that way, nothing West. Quickly meaning 2-3 hours? These types of bands usually hold 1"-3" an hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Well well, base on that EURO map, I'm getting more than 6 inches of snow..? mmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 If I could pick any place to be with this one I'd pick HPN. The actual airport, think that's the JP. I would pick from HFD to Port Jefferson, LI because of the backside deformation band tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Well well, base on that EURO map, I'm getting more than 6 inches of snow..? mmm no, those are Weatherbell maps, cut the amounts in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 The scary part is that if you take a Euro/RGEM blend it's probably the worst ice storm for the interior in many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Quickly meaning 2-3 hours? These types of bands usually hold 1"-3" an hour rates. We'll see how things pan out, If you get 1" per hour rates for 2 hours you get 2". Maybe some places on LI push 3", maybe more, either way they won't get as much on the front end as inland places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 We'll see how things pan out, If you get 1" per hour rates for 2 hours you get 2". Maybe some places on LI push 3", maybe more, either way they won't get as much on the front end as inland places. I don't think I am getting it. I am too far west. I believe HFD to FOK from north to south. And why wont they get as much front end? To me, all guidance has changeover or weakening precip between 11z and 1z, pretty much everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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