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Potential Major East Coast Storm on Saturday Part 2


IsentropicLift

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The Euro is colder at 850 near the coast at 12Z than any other guidance, I cannot see 925mb so maybe there is a warm layer there, but it may be snowier at the coast on the front end than its maps shows because it may think the surface is above freezing.

The 925mb freezing line makes it back to MMU. 925mb low runs from Cape May to the benchmark.

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The Euro is colder at 850 near the coast at 12Z than any other guidance, I cannot see 925mb so maybe there is a warm layer there, but it may be snowier at the coast on the front end than its maps shows because it may think the surface is above freezing.

There is a warm layer at 925mb. But it's not awful. PB would disagree.

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The problem is that the setup is falling apart as the backend tries to organize. Combination of the kicker and the surface low slipping East. I think 1-2" are possible on the backend but it will need to be stronger in order to induce some dynamic cooling.

 

Backend will be more on LI then in your area. So if you get 1"-2", then it's 2"-4" for LI.

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This storm has HUGE bust potential both good and bad. Nice to see the CCB appear back on most of the models. The low is close enough now to the coast where dynamics can come into play. Hopefully the hi-res models will continue with the cooling of the columns. From where I reside in Nutley, the dreaded rain-snow line will pretty much be on top of my house. That's OK, this hobby is what I live for. Get ready ladies and gents, its almost nowcast time!!! :snowwindow:

Nutley FTW
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The Euro is colder at 850 near the coast at 12Z than any other guidance, I cannot see 925mb so maybe there is a warm layer there, but it may be snowier at the coast on the front end than its maps shows because it may think the surface is above freezing

Is it because the storm closes off further south?

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It's colder than most of the other guidance. Even for nyc and western LI. Although the surface is nw of 195 at hr 27 then 850 0c line is south of nyc and cuts through central suffolk.

 

The Euro is colder at 850 near the coast at 12Z than any other guidance, I cannot see 925mb so maybe there is a warm layer there, but it may be snowier at the coast on the front end than its maps shows because it may think the surface is above freezing.

 

I think the warm nose actually might be maximized above 850-hPa with this event... thats what the NAM was suggesting near the NYC coastline mid-morning tomorrow. Haven't looked at any ECMWF soundings though.

 

GsT3IBV.gif

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I was thinking more along the lines of nothing out here on the back end and 1-2 on LI. The surface is too warm.

 

Backend is coming from the north to south. By the time it develops, it's too late for anyone west of EWR. RGEM shows this perfectly:

 

Hour 30 nothing:

 

RT_PN_030_0000.gif

 

Hour 33, deform band coming down from CT to LI. Kind of like Jan. 26, 2011 HECS did but a bit further east.

 

RT_PN_033_0000.gif

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Backend is coming from the north to south. By the time it develops, it's too late for anyone west of EWR. RGEM shows this perfectly:

Hour 30 nothing:

RT_PN_030_0000.gif

Hour 33, deform band coming down to LI:

RT_PN_033_0000.gif

But it moves through quickly and surface temps are in the mid 30's at best. As I said, 1-2" out that way, nothing West.
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its a disaster in marginal temperature profile situations...

at one point last year it had me getting 18-24" and about 1" of rain ended up falling before a few inches on the back end

it doesnt take into account the whole column for snowfall predictions i dont think

That was the HRRR you were thinking of. I specifically remember that event because of the ludicrous snowfall numbers it was throwing out. Meanwhile the RAP was much more reasonable and ended up nailing the storm. I remember siding with the RAP because when a short term model shows something too good to be true, it usually isn't true. A good rule to abide by.

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We'll see how things pan out, If you get 1" per hour rates for 2 hours you get 2". Maybe some places on LI push 3", maybe more, either way they won't get as much on the front end as inland places.

 

I don't think I am getting it. I am too far west. I believe HFD to FOK from north to south.

And why wont they get as much front end? To me, all guidance has changeover or weakening precip between 11z and 1z, pretty much everywhere.

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