IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Coastal hugger. Huge hit interior. Mixing for NYC and LI so far after front end dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 987 south of LI. CCB cranking, coast is still warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Coastal hugger. Huge hit interior. Mixing for NYC and LI so far after front end dump.How much for nyc before changeover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 980mb southwest of the benchmark. Wrap around CCB passing through like the rest of the guidance shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 How much for nyc before changeover? It's tough to say, maybe 1-3 or 2-4. 30 miles NW do much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 987 south of LI. CCB cranking, coast is still warm. When you say coast is it the immediate coast or 25 miles in from the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's tough to say, maybe 1-3 or 2-4. 30 miles NW do much better. How's qpf look for areas like orange and ulster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's less progressive than 00z. Not by a ton but a shade because of everything being further west slightly. I suspect that western zones will be upgraded to winter storm warnings after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 The taint is probably limited to about 10-15 miles NW of NYC for most of the event. It gets a little further NW, maybe to MMU for short period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 When you say coast is it the immediate coast or 25 miles in from the coast?5 Boro's are considered immediate coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Just taking a quick glance, NYC is around 1.00", maybe a bit more. 0.75"+ line goes back to Sussex County/Orange County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 5 Boro's are considered immediate coast That's not true, the immediate coast is within 20 miles of the shore, and that includes NJ and NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Euro is showing 1" per hour snow rates from MMU to back into PA for a six hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Just taking a quick glance, NYC is around 1.00", maybe a bit more. 0.75"+ line goes back to Sussex County/Orange County. Sweet. Solid warning snowfall. 6-9 inches or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's colder than most of the other guidance. Even for nyc and western LI. Although the surface is nw of 195 at hr 27 then 850 0c line is south of nyc and cuts through central suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's a warning criteria snowfall for most of the Mt. Holly CWA north of 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Lift, I don't know what you have access to, but if you can tell, is the tainted area more icy or sleet/rn? Any idea where the warming is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 The inflated WxBell maps are showing 6-10" for almost the whole area from TTN to SWF, outside of the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The inflated WxBell maps are showing 6-10" for almost the whole area from TTN to SWF, outside of the south shore. not tryin to be a pain but what would north shore Li be lookin at based on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The inflated WxBell maps are showing 6-10" for almost the whole area from TTN to SWF, outside of the south shore. I know they're over done but u mind posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 The surface gets to 37F at EWR and 38F on the south shore of LI. Even MMU gets to 36F for a very short period. But that's at 00z and by then it's pretty much over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 I know they're over done but u mind posting I'm not allowed to post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 not tryin to be a pain but what would north shore Li be lookin at based on that run Around 6" or so, depending on exact location. It's inflated though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The surface gets to 37F at EWR and 38F on the south shore of LI. Even MMU gets to 36F for a very short period. But that's at 00z and by then it's pretty much over. Temps bump up when it's shutting off like I said last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm not allowed to post it. I figured that thnx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This storm has HUGE bust potential both good and bad. Nice to see the CCB appear back on most of the models. The low is close enough now to the coast where dynamics can come into play. Hopefully the hi-res models will continue with the cooling of the columns. From where I reside in Nutley, the dreaded rain-snow line will pretty much be on top of my house. That's OK, this hobby is what I live for. Get ready ladies and gents, its almost nowcast time!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 guhhhhhhhhhh!!!!! so needing to see a map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Some QPF numbers Sussex - 0.70" Oakland, NJ - 0.90" Somerset, NJ - 1.00" EWR - 1.10" NYC - 1.10" HPN - 0.90" ISP - 1.10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Sweet. Solid warning snowfall. 6-9 inches or so. Sounds about right.. NAM, RGEM, & now Euro give us in the interior a nice solid warning criteria snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Some QPF numbers Sussex - 0.70" Oakland, NJ - 0.90" Somerset, NJ - 1.00" EWR - 1.10" NYC - 1.10" HPN - 0.90" ISP - 1.10" How about kbdr for us ct peeps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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