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Potential Major East Coast Storm on Saturday Part 2


IsentropicLift

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How about we stop using the 14 hour rap for please. That model is not trusted till 4- 6 hours out as far as I know. Neither is the Hrrr. We don't need to clog up the forum with worthless models that are bad this far out.

its a disaster in marginal temperature profile situations...

 

at one point last year it had me getting 18-24" and about 1" of rain ended up falling before a few inches on the back end

 

it doesnt take into account the whole column for snowfall predictions i dont think

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Watch this end up being a huge ice storm and catching most people completely offguard.

 

I don't see where any surface warmth comes from with this, winds are NE once precipitation comes in on all models, I can buy 850-925mb warmth but surface warmth I just don't know how its going to happen, the air mass in place is cold enough that everyone will wet bulb to 32 or lower quickly, its going to be tough away from the immediate shore to get it above that I think.  The RGEM is probably on the right track, and it may not be cold enough in the 15-18Z period inland, but by then this may be mostly over anyway.

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Agree that the model isn't that accurate in this range however telling people it's worthless is outragous, how are they clogging a storm forum with models pertaining to the storm?

 

It matches the RGEM closely on advancement of the precip shield fairly well through the end of its run...if you're talking convection I'd never use it past 6-8 hours but for a large scale synoptic system just trying to predict start times its usually very close, it has been better than the HRRR the last few months on that.  The only thing to remember with the RAP is in a S-N moving system it shows precip too far west near the end of its run and on a W-E moving system it shows precip too far north.  So if I lived in N-C PA I would not get too excited over how far west that snow shield is.

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Every model now showing a better ""CCB" here in the afternoon except the GFS, the UKMET does too...unfortunately I think its going to be one of those poor snow growth, marginal air mass type things where nothing much happens, the RGEM has it as a mix and may be correct.  We can hold out hope this closes off a taf earlier and pull it off from 20-00Z or so, right now I'd say NYC to central LI would have the best shot.

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ive noticed up here if the precip is heavy its hard to accumulate with temps above 30 kind of runs off before it freezes

I think surface temps could be in the 20's in places for awhile with moderate precip over the area. The RGEM is typically pretty deadly at this range. Wth that being said, it looks like the freezing rain threat becomes limited as you move further up the coast. Probably because most models swing the mid-level centers offshore once past ACY.

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Not for you, for the city and LI yes.

KNYC and Nassau County are not 2 inches of snow.

Both are going to be close to 3 to 4 on the front and 2 on the back.

I will not be shocked if some spots on long Island get 4 in 3 hours on the back side alone.

The Orange on the RGEM tends to be snow .

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KNYC and Nassau County are not 2 inches of snow.

Both are going to be close to 3 to 4 on the front and 2 on the back.

I will not be shocked if some spots on long Island get 4 in 3 hours on the back side alone.

The Orange on the RGEM tends to be snow .

The orange on the graphics that were posted earlier are low res. The higher res maps show that to be all freezing rain. Go back a few pages and look at where I posted all the precip type totals.

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Depends on the model. I'll go with the Rgem, which has 4" for NYC before changeover and then 1" on backside and the latest trends are a more pronounced backend, which would favor the coast and LI.

I wasn't talking about accumulations. I think NYC could pick up 2-4 or 3-5 on the front end in a relatively short period. But most models do bring in the mid level warming around 12z so... I guess we'll see.

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It's obviously very early to be using the HRRR but it looks very robust with snow moving in around 05z.

 

Yep. Looks like there is a pretty sharp edge to the front end precip with many folks in NJ already > 0.05" of total liquid equivalent precip by 0600 UTC.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_refl_alb.php

 

hrrr_ncep_refl_KALB_61.png

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I wasn't talking about accumulations. I think NYC could pick up 2-4 or 3-5 on the front end in a relatively short period. But most models do bring in the mid level warming around 12z so... I guess we'll see.

 

I think the back end will become more pronounced and someone on the coast will jackpot. Probably north shore of LI.

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I think the back end will become more pronounced and someone on the coast will jackpot. Probable north shore of LI.

The problem is that the setup is falling apart as the backend tries to organize. Combination of the kicker and the surface low slipping East. I think 1-2" are possible on the backend but it will need to be stronger in order to induce some dynamic cooling.

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