IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Watch this end up being a huge ice storm and catching most people completely offguard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 How about we stop using the 14 hour rap for please. That model is not trusted till 4- 6 hours out as far as I know. Neither is the Hrrr. We don't need to clog up the forum with worthless models that are bad this far out. its a disaster in marginal temperature profile situations... at one point last year it had me getting 18-24" and about 1" of rain ended up falling before a few inches on the back end it doesnt take into account the whole column for snowfall predictions i dont think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Watch this end up being a huge ice storm and catching most people completely offguard. I don't see where any surface warmth comes from with this, winds are NE once precipitation comes in on all models, I can buy 850-925mb warmth but surface warmth I just don't know how its going to happen, the air mass in place is cold enough that everyone will wet bulb to 32 or lower quickly, its going to be tough away from the immediate shore to get it above that I think. The RGEM is probably on the right track, and it may not be cold enough in the 15-18Z period inland, but by then this may be mostly over anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Agree that the model isn't that accurate in this range however telling people it's worthless is outragous, how are they clogging a storm forum with models pertaining to the storm? It matches the RGEM closely on advancement of the precip shield fairly well through the end of its run...if you're talking convection I'd never use it past 6-8 hours but for a large scale synoptic system just trying to predict start times its usually very close, it has been better than the HRRR the last few months on that. The only thing to remember with the RAP is in a S-N moving system it shows precip too far west near the end of its run and on a W-E moving system it shows precip too far north. So if I lived in N-C PA I would not get too excited over how far west that snow shield is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 ive noticed up here if the precip is heavy its hard to accumulate with temps above 30 kind of runs off before it freezes Watch this end up being a huge ice storm and catching most people completely offguard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Every model now showing a better ""CCB" here in the afternoon except the GFS, the UKMET does too...unfortunately I think its going to be one of those poor snow growth, marginal air mass type things where nothing much happens, the RGEM has it as a mix and may be correct. We can hold out hope this closes off a taf earlier and pull it off from 20-00Z or so, right now I'd say NYC to central LI would have the best shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 ive noticed up here if the precip is heavy its hard to accumulate with temps above 30 kind of runs off before it freezes I think surface temps could be in the 20's in places for awhile with moderate precip over the area. The RGEM is typically pretty deadly at this range. Wth that being said, it looks like the freezing rain threat becomes limited as you move further up the coast. Probably because most models swing the mid-level centers offshore once past ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's kind of an odd track. Normally with a surface low tucked in at ACY you're going to track over Long Island, but the kicker comes in and pushes it East at the last second. At the same token that probably prevents some of the dry slotting that would have occured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Just got a report from my buddy in Greensboro NC says it's sleeting and snowing mixture good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Im in west chester pa, is FREEZING RAIN looking bad here? Last year was horrible. thanks guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Im in west chester pa, is FREEZING RAIN looking bad here? Last year was horrible. thanks guys Depends on which model you want to believe. Per the 12z RGEM yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 For all the wishful thinkers, yes, another model with a "CCB" but one that has not been good lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Depends on which model you want to believe. Per the 12z RGEM yes. Thanks man, RGEM did the best with the sleet/FRZ we got here last week. hope it doesnt pan out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 All the models develop somewhat of a CCB, but it moves through quickly. Probabably a 2-3 hour type deal mid-afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 You guys think western Long isand goes over to plain rain or just a mix as Upton has forcasted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Not for you, for the city and LI yes. KNYC and Nassau County are not 2 inches of snow. Both are going to be close to 3 to 4 on the front and 2 on the back. I will not be shocked if some spots on long Island get 4 in 3 hours on the back side alone. The Orange on the RGEM tends to be snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 You guys think western Long isand goes over to plain rain or just a mix as Upton has forcasted? It'll likely go to rain for awhile, I would guess around 13-14Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The UKMET is great on the front at KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Not for you, for the city and LI yes. Depends on the model. I'll go with the Rgem, which has 4" for NYC before changeover and then 1" on backside and the latest trends are a more pronounced backend, which would favor the coast and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 KNYC and Nassau County are not 2 inches of snow. Both are going to be close to 3 to 4 on the front and 2 on the back. I will not be shocked if some spots on long Island get 4 in 3 hours on the back side alone. The Orange on the RGEM tends to be snow . The orange on the graphics that were posted earlier are low res. The higher res maps show that to be all freezing rain. Go back a few pages and look at where I posted all the precip type totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Depends on the model. I'll go with the Rgem, which has 4" for NYC before changeover and then 1" on backside and the latest trends are a more pronounced backend, which would favor the coast and LI. I wasn't talking about accumulations. I think NYC could pick up 2-4 or 3-5 on the front end in a relatively short period. But most models do bring in the mid level warming around 12z so... I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's obviously very early to be using the HRRR but it looks very robust with snow moving in around 05z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's obviously very early to be using the HRRR but it looks very robust with snow moving in around 05z. Yep. Looks like there is a pretty sharp edge to the front end precip with many folks in NJ already > 0.05" of total liquid equivalent precip by 0600 UTC. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_refl_alb.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I wasn't talking about accumulations. I think NYC could pick up 2-4 or 3-5 on the front end in a relatively short period. But most models do bring in the mid level warming around 12z so... I guess we'll see. I think the back end will become more pronounced and someone on the coast will jackpot. Probably north shore of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Euro update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Euro update? Just started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think the back end will become more pronounced and someone on the coast will jackpot. Probable north shore of LI. The problem is that the setup is falling apart as the backend tries to organize. Combination of the kicker and the surface low slipping East. I think 1-2" are possible on the backend but it will need to be stronger in order to induce some dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Euro early on is further West with the trough axis and heights are slighly higher along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Timing looks the same as the other guidance. About 0.05" by 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Huge hit on the front end dump. Mabye 6" inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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