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Potential Major East Coast Storm on Saturday Part 2


IsentropicLift

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Right off the bat heights are higher over the southeast and the trough is more amped up already.

 

12z GFS initialization.

 

This storm is making it apparent that it is coming closer to coast, but obviously that brings in more pecip issues for the coast and city... hopefully the snow begins earlier than thought and comes down heavy for an extended period of time to hold off the warmer push of air.

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Man is the RGEM far south with mixed precip at 12Z...I've seen it show that orange a few times this year and it had verified as snow...its snow accumulations would seem to suggest its seeing that orange as snow as well, it shows as much as 8 inches near NYC although some of that could be adding the late part of the system...the first image is the 36 hour forecast from the 00Z run and the 2nd this morning's 12Z...notice how the mix line is fairly far souh into CNJ, even at the coast.

gemreg00_PT.13.gif?t=1422027028

 

gemreg12_PT.9.gif?t=1422027098

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Man is the RGEM far south with mixed precip at 12Z...I've seen it show that orange a few times this year and it had verified as snow...its snow accumulations would seem to suggest its seeing that orange as snow as well, it shows as much as 8 inches near NYC although some of that could be adding the late part of the system...the first image is the 36 hour forecast from the 00Z run and the 2nd this morning's 12Z...notice how the mix line is fairly far souh into CNJ, even at the coast.

gemreg00_PT.13.gif?t=1422027028

 

gemreg12_PT.9.gif?t=1422027098

 

I'm not familliar with that map, is the orange supposed to represent snow or a mix of some sort?

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GFS has the same backend moving through like the NAM. The surface is warm but all other levels are below freezing. Some areas could pick up another sloppy 1-3". So 2-4" total accumulations likely, a very sloppy mess with rain falling on wet snow and then a freeze as surface temps drop below freezing by evening.

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GFS has the same backend moving through like the NAM. The surface is warm but all other levels are below freezing. Some areas could pick up another sloppy 1-3". So 2-4" total accumulations likely, a very sloppy mess with rain falling on wet snow and then a freeze as surface temps drop below freezing by evening.

Even all the way up into Orange County and points north

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mentioned a few days ago that SNE would do quite well with this one - models starting to reflect that.

 

Ill take the 1-2/2-4 in the city tonight before the changeover - if storm would have been more of a tomorrow timing, would have gone out n/w of 287 where I think they can see 3-6

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mentioned a few days ago that SNE would do quite well with this one - models starting to reflect that.

Ill take the 1-2/2-4 in the city tonight before the changeover - if storm would have been more of a tomorrow timing, would have gone out n/w of 287 where I think they can see 3-6

Well if theres a changeover which seems likely then any front end accumulation would melt away especially if it's only 1-2" and you have to hope the backend works out.

In the end there may be 1-2" on the ground even though something like 4" could've fallen.

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I feel a bust is coming as the warming is quite substantial and it takes too long for the storm to bomb out.

The mid levels are quite warm on the gfs and the surface isn't good either. We are under an advisory for 2-4" which may verify if we get an inch before the changeover and an inch on the backend but it could just as well be an inch on the front only to melt away and we miss the backend.

Let's hope the surface is warm because icing could be a problem yet again for some.

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And the first advisories have been updgraded to warnings. I would suspect that this will be the norm today for much of the area

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1023 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST...
BRINGING AN 8 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

PAZ026>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063-240400-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WW.Y.0007.150124T0000Z-150124T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0001.150124T0000Z-150124T1800Z/
HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-UNION-SNYDER-
MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN...
MIFFLINTOWN...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG...
LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...
BLOOMSBURG...BERWICK...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...
POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE
1023 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.


* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...AND WESTERN POCONO MOUNTAINS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE SNOW
WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW COULD POTENTIALLY MIX WITH LIGHT RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY MORNING FROM AROUND THE HARRISBURG
AND LEBANON AREA...SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.
USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVELING. FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION...GO TO WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE OR MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO.

REPORT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STATE COLLEGE BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected]...
POSTING TO THE NWS STATE COLLEGE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
@NWSSTATECOLLEGE WITH THE HASHTAG C...T...P...W...X.

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