IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 There is another shortwave over central southern Canada that wasn't even on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 A good trend this run at H5 imo...much closer to a phase vs 18z, not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Looks like it will be east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 What a mess. Classic example of this model being incapable of handling these features beyond 48 hours. Despite everything being West it still managed to kick the surface low East, and a sloppy one at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Energy never phases cleanly and the rest of the run suffers from that... This isn't the run that everyone's been waiting for. The trends are good, but we never see any results from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 So the NAM joins the GFS? Is East of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 its the NAM. It will change again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 So the NAM joins the GFS? Is East of 18z for now it seems so - also srefs are close to the va shore, but they also kick SE of benchmark and saw UKIE increments posted in another forum, somewhat similar - just something to watch tonight and tomorrow.. no need to stress.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 So the NAM joins the GFS? Is East of 18z Not a favorable trend. Que doorman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 First piece of bad news for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Energy never phases cleanly and the rest of the run suffers from that... This isn't the run that everyone's been waiting for. The trends are good, but we never see any results from it. If the trend just continues a hair more and holds (which we know it wont) then we are all very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's the NAM...outside the window. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The NAM is still in it's LR, so this isn't anything to get too worked up about yet. Eventually one camp is going to completely cave to the other, and it seems that it shouldn't be too long from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Holy cow, the negative nancies are out. This was a great trend aloft guys and gals. Settle down! The surface low bumping so far east makes no sense. The NAM wants to phase but is treating the energy as a kicker still. It is an error imo . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 for now it seems so - also srefs are close to the va shore, but they also kick SE of benchmark and saw UKIE increments posted in another forum, somewhat similar - just something to watch tonight and tomorrow.. no need to stress.. ukie has been trending west,can't really put it with the gfs/nam yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Looks like the trends at 5H were good, but it didn't reflect to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Not a favorable trend. Que doorman You can be the Door Knob!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Looks like the trends at 5H were good, but it didn't reflect to the surface. Winner winner chicken dinner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The NAM is still in it's LR, so this isn't anything to get too worked up about yet. 100% true. If the euro stays the same tonight. Gfs and Nam will adjust tomorrow.. Like always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The NAM is still in it's LR, so this isn't anything to get too worked up about yet. Eventually one camp is going to completely cave to the other, and it seems that it shouldn't be too long from now. Why do you say this? I actually disagree, i think the pattern is progressive enough where the Euro will end up too far west but I also am not buying that the storm will be as far east as the GFS. why can't a compromise between the two be right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Not scared of SE trends at this point on the coast SE is better then inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's the NAM...outside the window. Sent from my iPhone Define the window of the NAM. I'm not sure there is one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Not a favorable trend. Que doorman You need to look at what's occurring in the models It's really close to something big here still, just need that phasing/timing aspect and the models tend to waffle back and forth at this range. If it holds itself to this again tomorrow afternoon, then I'll pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Healthy little 3-6 incher for southern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I thought the Nam is in its wheelhouse by Fri 12z or is it it Thur night oz ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Why do you say this? I actually disagree, i think the pattern is progressive enough where the Euro will end up too far west but I also am not buying that the storm will be as far east as the GFS. why can't a compromise between the two be right? Because thinking like that is simply put, lazy. What is occurring in the evolution of each model? Compare it. Look at what is occurring and analyze it transparently vis-a-vis those same models/runs. Taking a blend might be an okay approach, but again, based on what. What's the justification/reasoning? Which model is handling certain features better? Etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I thought the Nam is in its wheelhouse by Fri 12z or is it it Thur night oz ? Usually you wan't it to be inside of 48 hours, but we've all seen it bust horribly even during that time. Personally I can't remember the last time I said "Wow the NAM nailed that storm 60 hours out'" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 NAM = within 48 hrs of storm. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Because thinking like that is simply put, lazy. What is occurring in the evolution of each model? Compare it. Look at what is occurring and analyze it transparently vis-a-vis those same models/runs. Taking a blend might be an okay approach, but again, based on what. What's the justification/reasoning? Which model is handling certain features better? Etc. that isn't what you did though. you posted that one will cave to the other without any reasoning. in fact, the GFS and NAM handle many of the features differently, although reaching a somewhat similar result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Why do you say this? I actually disagree, i think the pattern is progressive enough where the Euro will end up too far west but I also am not buying that the storm will be as far east as the GFS. why can't a compromise between the two be right? Because this isn't a storm where you can have an "up the middle of the spread" approach. This pattern will either allow for a sub 985mb low inside the benchmark, or a weak/strung out storm. This was the case on the ECMWF ensembles before the operational model started to trend west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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