Captain Will Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Upton has really jumped on the snow train tonight, here is LGA's forecast...the 02z start time may be too early though, 04-06z is more reasonable KLGA 231139Z 2312/2412 32009KT P6SM SKC FM231600 VRB06KT P6SM FEW200 FM231800 24008KT P6SM BKN200 FM240000 22009KT P6SM SCT020 OVC040 FM240200 22007KT 2SM -SN BR BKN020 OVC040 FM240400 VRB06KT 1SM -SN BR BKN006 OVC015 TEMPO 2407/2411 1/2SM SN FZFG OVC004 FM241100 02010KT 1SM FZRASNPL BR OVC005 In their latest briefing package they mention two scenarios. A west favored track or an east favored track. Maybe they are leaning towards the eastern track.. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/WxBriefing_FB.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 09z SREF mean is wetter. NYC is 1"+ and 0.75"+ contour stretches back to Sullivan County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 09z SREF mean is wetter. NYC is 1"+ and 0.75"+ contour stretches back to Sullivan County. How about west of there into CNJ/TTN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 12z NAM is slightly NW of 06z through 20hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 How about west of there into CNJ/TTN? 1"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 This run is going to be a lot wetter, especially for central and southern NJ and then likely spreading to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 The heaviest dynamics stretch well into PA this run. Moderate snows back to Wilkes-Berre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 992mb about 20 miles east of Cape May, NJ. Mixing issues up to about MMU at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 990mb tucked right into the coast. Rain for the city and most of NE NJ. NW of 287 in NJ and NY still snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yanksfan can you just put timestamps for the periods youre talking about? Model center is a pain on mobile. Thanks dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Dynamic cooling starting to take place. Looks like the whole kitchen sink of precip types over the area. 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 17z Saturday. 985mb south of LI. Looks like a rain/snow/sleet mix over the area. Plain rain for LI but it's close everywhere to being snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 3-4" front end snow for the NYC area and a bit more for NNJ by 12z before changing over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 It tries to throw back some decent moisture into the cold sector. The surface is warm south of KSWF but the rest of the atmosphere is below freezing. In any event, things are starting to wrap up. 984mb over the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Warning criteria event for the interior before any mixing issues. 2-4, 3-5 for the coast before taint. NYC is 1.0"+. 0.75"+ contour stretches from the Poconos to about SWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM looks good, about 3-5" on the front end, then mix, then maybe an inch on the back....not too bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looking at the mid-levels, the city is very close to dry slotting around 16z before the backside moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM looks good, about 3-5" on the front end, then mix, then maybe an inch on the back....not too bad... 6-12 for nw nj and poconos per nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 The mid-level jet cranks right over the area. It never quite closes off all the mid-level centers which is hindering it some, but it was still a great run, especially considering how things have gone so far this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 WxBell maps show 2-5" on the front end for most here and 6-8" once you get back to the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Total accumulations.....not bad at all taken as is, 3-6". Realistically probably 2-4" in and around the city with 6" or even a bit more N and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 By this time in the winter we should be probably at around 15 inches. We are at 3.2 in CPK. Most of models for last 24 hours showing 3-6 ( 2-4 in sme cases). Upton going with 3-4 for NY metro. Ill take a doubling of our seasonal total and go from there. in winters , like this one, we take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 BL HAS ZERO TO DO WITH YOU NOT GETTING SNOW Hour 36 is not SNOW 850`S ARE PLUS 1 925 `S ARE PLUS 1 You are snowing at 48 - But you are probably raining at 36 . Never look at your BL with storms like this , totally irrelevant . Its the mid levels on the Euro that hurt you . This has what to do what I said???Many are snowing at hr 36. Probably not my area or nyc . Its the precip that falls before hr 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 The 4k NAM has snow overspreading the area after midnight. By 2AM it should be ripping just about everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 A solid 3-5" thump before a changeover looks likely. precip moves in like a wall so it should come down fairly heavy once things get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 The backend also looks really solid during the afternoon, however temps are really marginal. One of the problems is that it could move through rather quickly. I think by dinner time it's all over, outside of maybe eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 This reminds me a lot of one of the events from last Winter. It looked like we might get a lot of freezing rain. We received 4-8" on a front end dump and then changed over to sleet and freezing rain before ending by mid-day. Came in around the same time as well. This system might be just a bit warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Per NAM is right.... NW of 287 in both NJ and NY will be a warning snow.... let's see what GFS and the rest of the model suite brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Major improvement 09z 03z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This reminds me a lot of one of the events from last Winter. It looked like we might get a lot of freezing rain. We received 4-8" on a front end dump and then changed over to sleet and freezing rain before ending by mid-day. Came in around the same time as well. This system might be just a bit warmer. That system was our first widespread event in Dec. This is much warmer... totally different airmass... what I'll remember about that storm was the intense thermal gradient that set up over the Metro... I believe it was in the low teens at EWR for a time when JFK was in the upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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