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Potential Major East Coast Storm on Saturday Part 2


IsentropicLift

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Upton has really jumped on the snow train tonight, here is LGA's forecast...the 02z start time may be too early though, 04-06z is more reasonable

KLGA 231139Z 2312/2412 32009KT P6SM SKC

FM231600 VRB06KT P6SM FEW200

FM231800 24008KT P6SM BKN200

FM240000 22009KT P6SM SCT020 OVC040

FM240200 22007KT 2SM -SN BR BKN020 OVC040

FM240400 VRB06KT 1SM -SN BR BKN006 OVC015

TEMPO 2407/2411 1/2SM SN FZFG OVC004

FM241100 02010KT 1SM FZRASNPL BR OVC005

In their latest briefing package they mention two scenarios. A west favored track or an east favored track. Maybe they are leaning towards the eastern track..

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/WxBriefing_FB.pdf

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By this time in the winter we should be probably at around 15 inches. We are at 3.2 in CPK. Most of models for last 24 hours showing 3-6 ( 2-4 in sme cases). Upton going with 3-4 for NY metro.

Ill take a doubling of our seasonal total and go from there. in winters , like this one, we take what we can get.

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BL HAS ZERO TO DO WITH YOU NOT GETTING SNOW

Hour 36 is not SNOW

850`S ARE PLUS 1

925 `S ARE PLUS 1

You are snowing at 48 - But you are probably raining at 36 .

Never look at your BL with storms like this , totally irrelevant . Its the mid levels on the Euro that hurt you .

This has what to do what I said???

Many are snowing at hr 36. Probably not my area or nyc . Its the precip that falls before hr 36.

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This reminds me a lot of one of the events from last Winter. It looked like we might get a lot of freezing rain. We received 4-8" on a front end dump and then changed over to sleet and freezing rain before ending by mid-day. Came in around the same time as well. This system might be just a bit warmer.

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This reminds me a lot of one of the events from last Winter. It looked like we might get a lot of freezing rain. We received 4-8" on a front end dump and then changed over to sleet and freezing rain before ending by mid-day. Came in around the same time as well. This system might be just a bit warmer.

 

That system was our first widespread event in Dec.  This is much warmer... totally different airmass... what I'll remember about that storm was the intense thermal gradient that set up over the Metro... I believe it was in the low teens at EWR for a time when JFK was in the upper 30s. 

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