Rjay Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Is the Euro that bad?No its not bad. After glacing at weatherbell, it's pretty cold. Coast changes to rain but barely. City is close to all frozen but not quite..would have to check soundings.Prob 3-6" nyc and more for parts of nnj/hv. 2-5" LI. Total precip .8-.9 nyc 1-1.25"+ nassau on east Most of nnj .5-.75..... .3-.5 nw of there. Not getting too specific bc it's silly to take these number verbatim...and I'm half asleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Not all areas... NW Of i-95 is mostly frozen. Didn't say all areas mostly frozen. Said all areas get heavy thump of snow, then rain. Inland burb surface temps go above freezing during event also. The degree of frozen will of course vary. Fairly tight precip gradient with 0.5" qpf over western and northern burbs to 1.5" qpf over parts of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Didn't say all areas mostly frozen. Said all areas get heavy thump of snow, then rain. Inland burb surface temps and 850 go above freezing during event also. The degree of frozen will of course vary. Fairly tight precip gradient with 0.5" qpf over western and northern burbs to 1.5" qpf over parts of LI. Ehh according to weatherbell..a lot of the nearby suburbs including nyc only make it to 0 to +1c at 850mb. Surface has always lookd a little warm but it's prob not rain in the nearby burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 No its not bad. After glacing at weatherbell, it's pretty cold. Coast changes to rain but barely. City is close to all frozen but not quite..would have to check soundings. Prob 3-6" nyc and more for parts of nnj/hv. 2-5" LI. Total precip .8-.9 nyc 1-1.25"+ nassau on east Most of nnj .5-.75..... .3-.5 nw of there. Not getting too specific bc it's silly to take these number verbatim...and I'm half asleep. Since you've given approx totals have any for CNJ area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Since you've given approx totals have any for CNJ area? Total precip .7-1.3+ west to east 850s 0 to +3 west to east surface temps at their warmest 33-36 west to east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Euro is warmer and further NW than 12z... 12z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Euro is warmer and further NW than 12z... 12z 00z Looks at the temps . Jesus I hate snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Not dry. Rjay's posts are correct. Seriously it's not that hard to read numbers right in front of you lol. I'm just reading verbatim what is on weatherbell minus using their crappy snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'll bet that those EURO wx maps don't count precip as snow if it falls with a surface above 32 degrees when in reality you can easily have heavy wet accumulating snow at 33-34 degrees, which is in fact what you get on the EURO for a good portion of the storm. There's also a couple inches of snow before temps even go above freezing, not sure why those maps have less than 1" for NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'll bet that those EURO wx maps don't count precip as snow if it falls with a surface above 32 degrees when in reality you can easily have heavy wet accumulating snow at 33-34 degrees, which is in fact what you get on the EURO for a good portion of the storm. There's also a couple inches of snow before temps even go above freezing, not sure why those maps have less than 1" for NYC... It doesn't. WxBell map shows more, but that is often overdone. Either way, not going to accumulate much in the city verbatim that run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Temps Those surface temps are basically after the precip shuts off...or is in the process of shutting off. The 0c line briefly makes it up to 287 at hr 42 before crashing back down. Most of the area south of that for the exception of central nj is 0 to +1 c at 850 and surface temps 33 to 35 (35 near the city and on LI). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It doesn't. WxBell map shows more, but that is often overdone. Either way, not going to accumulate much in the city verbatim that run... Toss all snow maps imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Those surface temps are basically after the precip shuts off...or is in the process of shutting off. The 0c line briefly makes it up to 287 at hr 42 before crashing back down. Most of the area south of that for the exception of central nj is 0 to +1 c at 850 and surface temps 33 to 35 (35 near the city and on LI). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I don't think the city gets any freezing rain out of this. The heavy stuff will be snow then rain/sleet/snow mix probably to rain. Still looks close to mostly frozen for nyc. The 36 degree temps is when the precip shuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looks pretty inaccurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The euro makes me more nervous about FZRA in and near NYC, how quick it goes from snow to a mix depends strongly how heavy that front end is, if it's coming down hard it will delay the changeover since the push of warm air isn't exactly extreme and many places just creep above 0C in the mid levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The euro makes me more nervous about FZRA in and near NYC, how quick it goes from snow to a mix depends strongly how heavy that front end is, if it's coming down hard it will delay the changeover since the push of warm air isn't exactly extreme and many places just creep above 0C in the mid levelsNot worried about freezing rain at all for nyc. If we had an arctic airmass in place or a retreating one, I'd be more inclined to agree. But I agree with the other part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I don't think the city gets any freezing rain out of this. The heavy stuff will be snow then rain/sleet/snow mix probably to rain. Still looks close to mostly frozen for nyc. The 36 degree temps is when the precip shuts off. Alrighty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 That text data is taking current temps and prior precip and making it all whatever the P-type is at the given hour. Dangerous thing to do when you're working with a 6 hour interval... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The euro makes me more nervous about FZRA in and near NYC, how quick it goes from snow to a mix depends strongly how heavy that front end is, if it's coming down hard it will delay the changeover since the push of warm air isn't exactly extreme and many places just creep above 0C in the mid levels Do you mean Manhattan only or are you including Brooklyn and Queens and the other boroughs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Alrighty. It should change to rain in nyc..please don't get me wrong. 2-5"/3-6" looks like a decent bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 thought it was for all maps but its only the euro you cant post if its a pay site so you should probably delete them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The euro makes me more nervous about FZRA in and near NYC, how quick it goes from snow to a mix depends strongly how heavy that front end is, if it's coming down hard it will delay the changeover since the push of warm air isn't exactly extreme and many places just creep above 0C in the mid levelsIn and around our areas (especially the metro areas), it's always tough to get freezing rain to accumulate (thankfully).....but when it does, it is usually following very cold weather when we have cold, dry ground and it starts freezing drizzling. I would think that with this system, if it changes to frozen precip other than snow, the freezing rain would have a very tough time accumulating (again, thankfully) on top of a slushy, wet snow. The danger it seems would be if the freezing rain occurred first and started as freezing drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 thought it was for all maps but its only the euro you cant post if its a pay site so you should probably delete them EuroWX allows you to share snowmaps, the temps map ill delete although it was quoted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Finding it hard to believe that the hills of NW Jersey only receive an inch of snow per that snow map. Here's windergrounds, likely over done and under done somewhat depending on area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I don't think the city gets any freezing rain out of this. The heavy stuff will be snow then rain/sleet/snow mix probably to rain. Still looks close to mostly frozen for nyc. The 36 degree temps is when the precip shuts off. BL HAS ZERO TO DO WITH YOU NOT GETTING SNOW Hour 36 is not SNOW 850`S ARE PLUS 1 925 `S ARE PLUS 1 You are snowing at 48 - But you are probably raining at 36 . Never look at your BL with storms like this , totally irrelevant . Its the mid levels on the Euro that hurt you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The 6z GFS is even more progressive with this system... Is it true to say that the more progressive this system is the better the chances for good snows with the Monday system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The 6z GFS is even more progressive with this system... Is it true to say that the more progressive this system is the better the chances for good snows with the Monday system? Possibly. More spacing/wavelength between systems is usually better for development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Upton has really jumped on the snow train tonight, here is LGA's forecast...the 02z start time may be too early though, 04-06z is more reasonable KLGA 231139Z 2312/2412 32009KT P6SM SKC FM231600 VRB06KT P6SM FEW200 FM231800 24008KT P6SM BKN200 FM240000 22009KT P6SM SCT020 OVC040 FM240200 22007KT 2SM -SN BR BKN020 OVC040 FM240400 VRB06KT 1SM -SN BR BKN006 OVC015 TEMPO 2407/2411 1/2SM SN FZFG OVC004 FM241100 02010KT 1SM FZRASNPL BR OVC005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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