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Potential Major East Coast Storm on Saturday Part 2


IsentropicLift

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The NAM is supportive of a 3-6" event.....3" closer to the city and closer to the 6" SW into PA.....Right now it supports Upton and mount Holly's calls perfectly (3-4" for most).....Its basically a front end dump of snow and then done...as the low is crossing over areas and in a position where it would usually throw back a lot of moisture, there is none to be found as it moves off wuickly

Yeh the 1st 6 hours at KNYC look  to be snow 3 to 4 inches look possible off that run .

The next 6 hours look to be RAIN SLEET SNOW . It never really gets that warm .

The back end is just some light snow . 

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NYC is snow 5-11Z or so....it also hints at a back end shot although it shows it as RASN right now.

Knocking on the door at 4z - Wall of snow til 10z  11-12 Ice . What`s left over is some rain - but not a lot

 

Think a lot of the model see at least 4 at KNYC to start .

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This is an interesting panel from the RGEM. It shows it as rain (turning to snow on Long Island on the next panel but not west of there), but if this is snow, it could add another couple inches on (though the front end dumps usually seem to work out much better than anything at the end) :

f5b01493c19e78f50d71c7b83c41f6ac.jpg

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This is an interesting panel from the RGEM. It shows it as rain (turning to snow on Long Island on the next panel but not west of there), but if this is snow, it could add another couple inches on (though the front end dumps usually seem to work out much better than anything at the end) :

f5b01493c19e78f50d71c7b83c41f6ac.jpg

22z to 0z its snowing from the city east

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22z to 0z its snowing from the city east

What would be the reason why the model would show snow east on Long Island and rain for northern NJ (even as heavier precip passes over the same area in NNJ)? I guess the best dynamics work their way in once you head a bit further east and the low strengthens moving NE?
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