PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Under the CCB with a strong NNE wind, I would say NYC is changing to all-snow several hours before...around hr 51 I hear ya , I just don`t trust it . This entire evolution is a 180 from just 24 hours ago . We go from CCB being our savior , to front end accumulations . Always hard to accumulate on the front , then the back with crap air masses . IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 So the models have a good track and are okay on precip amounts but have trended warmer. They might be overdoing some of that warmth. I've commonly seen them trend colder the closer we get and that's something to keep in mind giving the intensifying offshore coastal. If they don't cool off then we may see a few inches to start only to be washed away until things get cold again and in the end we end up with like 2" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I'm not worried about the CCB so much anymore as I am the front end, the WAA is not exceptionally strong to blast the mid layers above 0C, eventually the 850 low gets close enough we changeover but I could possibly see that being as late as 14Z near NYC if we get surprised with moderate snow on the front end and it prevents the mid levels from warming longer until the 850 low actually gets very close. Will over in the SNE thread brought up a good point that he does not think the front end will be bad because there is no high to the north, but the jet setup is far from the worst I've seen, the front end of this now to me is the dangerous part where forecasts could bust. The back end to me looks very undynamic and I don't know if it can cool back the layers sufficiently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I hear ya , I just don`t trust it . This entire evolution is a 180 from just 24 hours ago . We go from CCB being our savior , to front end accumulations . Always hard to accumulate on the front , then the back with crap air masses . IMO We're looking at a 980mb low east of Cape Cod. The stale surface air mass can be overcome, when a cranking low pulls in cold air from the upper levels. If this 980, turns into a 990-995, yea you're pretty much dead on..it's not going to cut it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 We're looking at a 980mb low east of Cape Cod. The stale surface air mass can be overcome, when a cranking low pulls in cold air from the upper levels. If this 980, turns into a 990-995, yea you're pretty much dead on..it's not going to cut it... Hey bud. My question is where does the storm mature. With the trough being depicted to be so sharp, I say it's in time for us, despite the less than ideal set up. Would love to hear your thoughts my friend. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Hey bud. My question is where does the storm mature. With the trough being depicted to be so sharp, I say it's in time for us, despite the less than ideal set up. Would love to hear your thoughts my friend. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Can we close this off earlier in a progressive pattern ? Yesterday the GGEM and EURO at 12z did it , This AM the 6z GFS did it . But the models have gone away from it . I think that`s the whole forecast on the back end . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Can we close this off earlier in a progressive pattern ? Yesterday the GGEM and EURO at 12z did it , This AM the 6z GFS did it . But the models have gone away from it . I think that`s the whole forecast on the back end . Gratzi United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Haven't posted yet this winter as there's really been nothing to post about lol. Seems all those who laughed at Uptons calls yesterday are very quiet today. Thanks to those who did an excellent job for the most part with the PBP's. Much appreciated. At this point I think 3-5 on the N shore of LI will be a fair call. I don't see it being anymore than a nuisance event and par for the course this winter. I got a huge smile reading all the weenies blasting off yesterday. But I also appreciated those who kept their cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Hey bud. My question is where does the storm mature. With the trough being depicted to be so sharp, I say it's in time for us, despite the less than ideal set up. Would love to hear your thoughts my friend. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer I think the problem comes with the 992 mb low moving through Quebec. That system is hindering CAA and height falls on the western side of our storm which is slowing down the maturing phase from reaching occlusion at our latitude. I'd like to see that system either a.) speed up, so we're no longer on the the warm side, as our storm is just to the east or b.) deepen further so that we can potentially see some phasing occur earlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 The SREF looks wetter, more like 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The SREF looks wetter, more like 09z. yeah, but very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick T Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 2 hours of silence in this group Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 yeah, but very warm. No they are not . At KNYC there is front end snow and 850s fall Hour 48 - 51 - 54 - all snow on the backed for almost everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 No they are not . At KNYC there is front end snow and 850s fall Hour 48 - 51 - 54 - all snow on the backed for almost everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Never look at temps on the SREF's. They are useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM is faster to move the trailing energy East vs 12z and 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Never look at temps on the SREF's. They are useless im not saying they are gospel but when they support the warning trend we have seen for the last 36 hours, it is worth noting. anyway, NAM doesn't look that different so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM hahaha there had to be one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Hah....wowzers...nam is very, very different in a good way. We're about to get NAM'd with 6"+ I'm sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 nam slim radar looks sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM is going negative sooner this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 The NAM is really wet, here comes all the models to suck us back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 KNYC still all snow at 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The NAM is really wet, here comes all the models to suck us back in Dynamic cooling ftw. We are getting NAM'd this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM sucks us all back in LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Dynamic cooling ftw. We are getting NAM'd this run. Oh my God , just as EVERYBODY, and their mother gives up hope on a biggie the NAM just HAD to do this!! here comes another night of staying up till 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 who was giving up on anything, by today - all pretty much finally agreed on a 1-3/2-4 type event with 6" probably being the top amount for our subforum - NAM was wetter, no doubt, but I dont see anything to change the thinking above... perhaps more of the 2-4" range with 6" as the high points - but overall - on course.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The NAM is supportive of a 3-6" event.....3" closer to the city and closer to the 6" SW into PA.....Right now it supports Upton and mount Holly's calls perfectly (3-4" for most).....Its basically a front end dump of snow (to a mix) and then done...as the low is crossing over areas and in a position where it would usually throw back a lot of moisture, there is none to be found as it moves off quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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