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Potential Major East Coast Storm on Saturday Part 2


IsentropicLift

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Under the CCB with a strong NNE wind, I would say NYC is changing to all-snow several hours before...around hr 51

 

I hear ya , I just don`t trust it . This entire evolution is a 180 from just 24 hours ago .

We go from CCB being our savior , to front end accumulations .

 

Always hard to accumulate on the front , then the back with crap air masses . IMO

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So the models have a good track and are okay on precip amounts but have trended warmer. They might be overdoing some of that warmth. I've commonly seen them trend colder the closer we get and that's something to keep in mind giving the intensifying offshore coastal.

If they don't cool off then we may see a few inches to start only to be washed away until things get cold again and in the end we end up with like 2" or so.

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I'm not worried about the CCB so much anymore as I am the front end, the WAA is not exceptionally strong to blast the mid layers above 0C, eventually the 850 low gets close enough we changeover but I could possibly see that being as late as 14Z near NYC if we get surprised with moderate snow on the front end and it prevents the mid levels from warming longer until the 850 low actually gets very close.  Will over in the SNE thread brought up a good point that he does not think the front end will be bad because there is no high to the north, but the jet setup is far from the worst I've seen, the front end of this now to me is the dangerous part where forecasts could bust.  The back end to me looks very undynamic and I don't know if it can cool back the layers sufficiently.

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 I hear ya , I just don`t trust it . This entire evolution is a 180 from just 24 hours ago .

We go from CCB being our savior , to front end accumulations .

 

Always hard to accumulate on the front , then the back with crap air masses . IMO

 

We're looking at a 980mb low east of Cape Cod. The stale surface air mass can be overcome, when a cranking low pulls in cold air from the upper levels.

 

If this 980, turns into a 990-995, yea you're pretty much dead on..it's not going to cut it...

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We're looking at a 980mb low east of Cape Cod. The stale surface air mass can be overcome, when a cranking low pulls in cold air from the upper levels.

If this 980, turns into a 990-995, yea you're pretty much dead on..it's not going to cut it...

Hey bud. My question is where does the storm mature. With the trough being depicted to be so sharp, I say it's in time for us, despite the less than ideal set up. Would love to hear your thoughts my friend.

United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer

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Hey bud. My question is where does the storm mature. With the trough being depicted to be so sharp, I say it's in time for us, despite the less than ideal set up. Would love to hear your thoughts my friend.

United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer

 

Can we close this off earlier in a progressive pattern ? Yesterday the GGEM and EURO at 12z  did it , This AM the 6z GFS did it .

But the models have gone away from it .

I think that`s the whole forecast on the back end .

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Can we close this off earlier in a progressive pattern ? Yesterday the GGEM and EURO at 12z did it , This AM the 6z GFS did it .

But the models have gone away from it .

I think that`s the whole forecast on the back end .

Gratzi

United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer

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Haven't posted yet this winter as there's really been nothing to post about lol. Seems all those who laughed at Uptons calls yesterday are very quiet today. Thanks to those who did an excellent job for the most part with the PBP's. Much appreciated. At this point I think 3-5 on the N shore of LI will be a fair call. I don't see it being anymore than a nuisance event and par for the course this winter. I got a huge smile reading all the weenies blasting off yesterday. But I also appreciated those who kept their cool.

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Hey bud. My question is where does the storm mature. With the trough being depicted to be so sharp, I say it's in time for us, despite the less than ideal set up. Would love to hear your thoughts my friend.

United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer

 

I think the problem comes with the 992 mb low moving through Quebec. That system is hindering CAA  and height falls on the western side of our storm which is slowing down the maturing phase from reaching occlusion at our latitude.

 

I'd like to see that system either a.) speed up, so we're no longer on the the warm side, as our storm is just to the east or b.) deepen further so that we can potentially see some phasing occur earlier...

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who was giving up on anything, by today - all pretty much finally agreed on a 1-3/2-4 type event with 6" probably being the top amount for our subforum - NAM was wetter, no doubt, but I dont see anything to change the thinking above... perhaps more of the 2-4" range with 6" as the high points - but overall - on course..

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The NAM is supportive of a 3-6" event.....3" closer to the city and closer to the 6" SW into PA.....Right now it supports Upton and mount Holly's calls perfectly (3-4" for most).....Its basically a front end dump of snow (to a mix) and then done...as the low is crossing over areas and in a position where it would usually throw back a lot of moisture, there is none to be found as it moves off quickly

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