mattinpa Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 looks warm over I 95 to my eyes. If the low deepens like it shows on the NAM, isn't there a decent chance this is too warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 We need one of two things to happen in order to get any city accumulation out of this slop. 1) Heavy returns for a front end dump 2) CCB Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I'll say this.....not only does the NAM not give us much precip, but even on the backend of the storm as well as at the height of it, there is precip type issues abound. At least it seems like we all have no expectations beyond a few inches or so. Anything more is a bonus, anything less just confirms that this is the winter of 2014-2015:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 A 985mb low 100 miles offshore and basically nothing to show for it. There must be something going on that a majority of us are missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 A 985mb low 100 miles offshore and basically nothing to show for it. There must be something going on that a majority of us are missing. What it is, is that it's winter 2014-15. Sometimes you get winters when most storms work out no matter what, and some winters most storms don't work out no matter what. This seems like one of those winters where almost every storm will find a way to screw us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 A 985mb low 100 miles offshore and basically nothing to show for it. There must be something going on that a majority of us are missing. We're overlooking the garbage antecedent airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 We're overlooking the garbage antecedent airmass. I'm not as concerned with precip types as I am the precip itself to the NW of the center. Is the polar influince really enough to rob the NW side of moisture? Similar to when a trough begins impacting a tropical cyclone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 We're overlooking the garbage antecedent airmass.Yes but the fast flow appears to not be giving it time to consolidate, which I don't specifically buy. Between the PV pressing down and creating confluence, and the screaming jet, its having issues maturing quickly enough for the northwest side to blossom. However with how this storm is truly digging around obx, I don't buy this depiction yet. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I'm not as concerned with precip types as I am the precip itself to the NW of the center. Is the polar influince really enough to rob the NW side of moisture? Similar to when a trough begins impacting a tropical cyclone?Yes that's what I was thinking, it's acting like shear on a tropical cyclone, but at our latitudes, this effect should not be as pronounced, especially on a non tropical system. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I'm not as concerned with precip types as I am the precip itself to the NW of the center. Is the polar influince really enough to rob the NW side of moisture? Similar to when a trough begins impacting a tropical cyclone?The upper lows aren't able to throw much precip back because everything is so progressive that it's all getting shunted out to sea. That's why I mentioned before that people shouldn't get too excited over seeing a 980mb low on a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 A lot of the 18z NAM soundings are showing a few hour period of freezing rain after the initial front end dump. That would sort of match up well with the 12z RGEM. Places well inland like MMU finish as a rain/snow mix. Total accumulations of 0.6" of snow on 0.31" liquid. Places like LGA actually do better in the snow department because of slightly better dynamics. 1.3" of snow on 0.56" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 We're overlooking the garbage antecedent airmass. 250mb Relative Humidity Variable 250-mb Relative Humidity250-mb Wind Display Color FillStreamlines Units %N/A Notes: This plot can help indicate how close the air is to saturation based on a given temperature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 A 985mb low 100 miles offshore and basically nothing to show for it. There must be something going on that a majority of us are missing. It's been like this for the last few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 A 985mb low 100 miles offshore and basically nothing to show for it. There must be something going on that a majority of us are missing. That precipitation shield looks similar to the GEM. It just cuts off in SE NY and NE PA (and in NNJ on the hi-res NAM pictured here). I commented on it in the NW burbs forum earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 We're overlooking the garbage antecedent airmass. And a progressive pattern. There is 0 blocking a HP sliding east, and a low in SE Canada. It's a miracle in the first place that we're somehow going to get a little bit of snow out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 That precipitation shield looks similar to the GEM. It just cuts off in SE NY and NE PA (and in NNJ on the hi-res NAM pictured here). I commented on it in the NW burbs forum earlier today. DC and Baltimore may end up getting hit really well with this one and the next one combined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 DC and Baltimore may end up getting hit really well with this one and the next one combined I think the FAR NW burbs of DC might have a shot but even there the warm push looks to taint things. Without high pressure we're toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 A strongly negative NAO would have kept this well to our South. DC would have been slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 And the 18z GFS is coming in more robust, like clockwork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Hope for the front end thump FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's very warm, but not a bad look precip wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 KNYC is snow hour 36 - 42 - changing over here Warms up at 45 like most guidance today . 1-3 on the front at KNYC . Back to snow at 54 maybe 1 -2 on the back . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 18z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 KNYC is snow hour 36 - 42 - changing over here Warms up at 45 like most guidance today . 2 -4 on the front at KNYC . Back to snow at 54 that makes 9 hours out of snow ( more than 50% of storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The RGEM is actually a nice 3-6" event for most (showing heavy front end dump). GFS is only 1-2" for the most part (3-4" for higher elevations of NWNJ) with the only 6"+ amounts in areas N of Boston. I could see this being a situation where a wall of snow is approaching us and suddenly people will think that totals should be upped to 6-12" and blog posts will start conspiracy theories about the models totally underestimating this or that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS remained basically the same with its snow output 12Z: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012212&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=063 18Z: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012218&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=063 1-4" storm area-wide on this sub-forum - could have been better, could have been worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Does western Long island change to plain rain or is it more sleet or frz rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 that makes 9 hours out of snow ( more than 50% of storm) Roughly 6 , we are changing at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 KNYC is snow hour 36 - 42 - changing over here Warms up at 45 like most guidance today . 1-3 on the front at KNYC . Back to snow at 54 maybe 1 -2 on the back . Under the CCB with a strong NNE wind, I would say NYC is changing to all-snow several hours before...around hr 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.