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Potential Major East Coast Storm on Saturday Part 2


IsentropicLift

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I'll say this.....not only does the NAM not give us much precip, but even on the backend of the storm as well as at the height of it, there is precip type issues abound. At least it seems like we all have no expectations beyond a few inches or so. Anything more is a bonus, anything less just confirms that this is the winter of 2014-2015:)

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A 985mb low 100 miles offshore and basically nothing to show for it. There must be something going on that a majority of us are missing.

 

nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_16.png

 

 

What it is, is that it's winter 2014-15. Sometimes you get winters when most storms work out no matter what, and some winters most storms don't work out no matter what. This seems like one of those winters where almost every storm will find a way to screw us.

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We're overlooking the garbage antecedent airmass.

Yes but the fast flow appears to not be giving it time to consolidate, which I don't specifically buy. Between the PV pressing down and creating confluence, and the screaming jet, its having issues maturing quickly enough for the northwest side to blossom. However with how this storm is truly digging around obx, I don't buy this depiction yet.

United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer

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I'm not as concerned with precip types as I am the precip itself to the NW of the center. Is the polar influince really enough to rob the NW side of moisture? Similar to when a trough begins impacting a tropical cyclone?

Yes that's what I was thinking, it's acting like shear on a tropical cyclone, but at our latitudes, this effect should not be as pronounced, especially on a non tropical system.

United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer

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I'm not as concerned with precip types as I am the precip itself to the NW of the center. Is the polar influince really enough to rob the NW side of moisture? Similar to when a trough begins impacting a tropical cyclone?

The upper lows aren't able to throw much precip back because everything is so progressive that it's all getting shunted out to sea. That's why I mentioned before that people shouldn't get too excited over seeing a 980mb low on a map.
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A lot of the 18z NAM soundings are showing a few hour period of freezing rain after the initial front end dump. That would sort of match up well with the 12z RGEM. Places well inland like MMU finish as a rain/snow mix. Total accumulations of 0.6" of snow on 0.31" liquid. Places like LGA actually do better in the snow department because of slightly better dynamics. 1.3" of snow on 0.56" liquid.

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We're overlooking the garbage antecedent airmass.

 

250mb Relative Humidity
Variable 250-mb Relative Humidity

250-mb Wind

Display Color Fill

Streamlines

Units %

N/A

Notes: This plot can help indicate how close the air is to saturation based on a given temperature

 

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A 985mb low 100 miles offshore and basically nothing to show for it. There must be something going on that a majority of us are missing.

 

nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_16.png

That precipitation shield looks similar to the GEM. It just cuts off in SE NY and NE PA (and in NNJ on the hi-res NAM pictured here). I commented on it in the NW burbs forum earlier today.

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That precipitation shield looks similar to the GEM. It just cuts off in SE NY and NE PA (and in NNJ on the hi-res NAM pictured here). I commented on it in the NW burbs forum earlier today.

DC and Baltimore may end up getting hit really well with this one and the next one combined

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The RGEM is actually a nice 3-6" event for most (showing heavy front end dump). GFS is only 1-2" for the most part (3-4" for higher elevations of NWNJ) with the only 6"+ amounts in areas N of Boston. I could see this being a situation where a wall of snow is approaching us and suddenly people will think that totals should be upped to 6-12" and blog posts will start conspiracy theories about the models totally underestimating this or that lol

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GFS remained basically the same with its snow output

 

12Z: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012212&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=063

 

18Z: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012218&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=063

 

1-4" storm area-wide on this sub-forum - could have been better, could have been worse

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