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Potential Major East Coast Storm on Saturday Part 2


IsentropicLift

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Wettest run yet for the SREF mean with 95% of everyone here comfortably in the 0.50"+ contour for the first time

sref_namer_066_precip_p24.gif

Looks like we also have a cluster of tucked in members

sref_namer_057_mslp.gif

At h5, the Euro was right there, it just closed off about twelve hours late. This set up is not resolved yet.

United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer

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At h5, the Euro was right there, it just closed off about twelve hours late. This set up is not resolved yet.

United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer

Anyone that's been involved with this hobby long enough knows that models are always going to change from run to run and sometimes drastically even inside of 72hrs.

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Anyone that's been involved with this hobby long enough knows that models are always going to change from run to run and sometimes drastically even inside of 72hrs.

Yes brother, and with this much energy around, nothing should be written off. I know I don't have to tell you this, but others in here.. Different story.

United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer

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This storm as shown by nearly all the models is taking an almost perfect track and delivering a good

amount of precip. We are just lacking a cold high to the north and blocking. This appears to me a very typical winter coastal storm in our area. (Maybe not so typical if you started following the

weather in the 2000's)

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This storm as shown by nearly all the models is taking an almost perfect track and delivering a good

amount of precip. We are just lacking a cold high to the north and blocking. This appears to me a very typical winter coastal storm in our area. (Maybe not so typical if you started following the

weather in the 2000's)

Very possible if we had a cold high this event would have whiffed, the pattern is progressive enough I don't know if the system would have been able to reach as far up the coast

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80% of the 12z EPS members are tightly clustered near Ocean City, MD at 48 hours. Some of them are inland over DE and SNJ. Then at 54 hours are tightly clustered roughly 50-75 miles east of ACY. Then at 60 hours are clustered near the benchmark, or slighly northeast of there.

 

Looking at the individuals I'm starting to wonder if that strong convection along the cold front is robbing the moisture from the cold sector? Most of the individuals and some of the higher resolution models have a wicked quall line developing off the VA coast and pushing northeast. 

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