PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Uh His comments are 0 for 2 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 That is not too bad... 4-6 NW of NYC... I will definitely sign up for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Wettest run yet for the SREF mean with 95% of everyone here comfortably in the 0.50"+ contour for the first time Looks like we also have a cluster of tucked in members At h5, the Euro was right there, it just closed off about twelve hours late. This set up is not resolved yet. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 At h5, the Euro was right there, it just closed off about twelve hours late. This set up is not resolved yet. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Anyone that's been involved with this hobby long enough knows that models are always going to change from run to run and sometimes drastically even inside of 72hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Anyone that's been involved with this hobby long enough knows that models are always going to change from run to run and sometimes drastically even inside of 72hrs.Yes brother, and with this much energy around, nothing should be written off. I know I don't have to tell you this, but others in here.. Different story. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 sref drier than previous run. map posted was the 9z one, the 15 is drier for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Wettest run yet for the SREF mean with 95% of everyone here comfortably in the 0.50"+ contour for the first time sref drier than previous run. oh well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 sref drier than previous run. map posted was the 9z one, the 15 is drier for many this may be slightly off topic but in the rush to be the first person to post maps or takes ,we get a lot of misinformation. maybe slow down a little bit and check this kind of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yes, the SREF was a hair drier which is interesting because the NCEP site had already updated to the latest run In any event, it looks like it may be a result of an even larger spread in surface low placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 This storm as shown by nearly all the models is taking an almost perfect track and delivering a good amount of precip. We are just lacking a cold high to the north and blocking. This appears to me a very typical winter coastal storm in our area. (Maybe not so typical if you started following the weather in the 2000's) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 This storm as shown by nearly all the models is taking an almost perfect track and delivering a good amount of precip. We are just lacking a cold high to the north and blocking. This appears to me a very typical winter coastal storm in our area. (Maybe not so typical if you started following the weather in the 2000's) Very possible if we had a cold high this event would have whiffed, the pattern is progressive enough I don't know if the system would have been able to reach as far up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 A 4-6" event would be a huge win from this I just wish the antecedent air mass was colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 80% of the 12z EPS members are tightly clustered near Ocean City, MD at 48 hours. Some of them are inland over DE and SNJ. Then at 54 hours are tightly clustered roughly 50-75 miles east of ACY. Then at 60 hours are clustered near the benchmark, or slighly northeast of there. Looking at the individuals I'm starting to wonder if that strong convection along the cold front is robbing the moisture from the cold sector? Most of the individuals and some of the higher resolution models have a wicked quall line developing off the VA coast and pushing northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Well.. Lets see what the NAM has to say now. Yanks, you got the PBP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 The 18z NAM is once again sharper and more amplified than the previous run. It would be nice to get something out of that for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 You can see that at 36hrs everything is shifted 50 miles NW, including the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Here's hoping we get Nam'd! and if we do reason & logic will dictate we say its the 18 Z nam. Lets face it: this run is usually for entertainment ( though closer to crunch time it does have some more credibility) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 nam is looking good, more amplified, precip shield a tick more west and we are getting within its more accurate timeframe, I take it back precip shield much more organized this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 hr. 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 and if we do reason & logic will dictate we say its the 18 Z nam. Lets face it: this run is usually for entertainment ( though closer to crunch time it does have some more credibility) Would be pretty epic if the NAM starts to lead the charge into big things for the 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 hr 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's a much cleaner phase this run, hopefully that helps things later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 42hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Upton issues winter storm watches: Northern New Haven, Northern Middlesex, Northern New London counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's so much more amped up this run and yet the PV is dropping south quicker so everything still gets pushed East. This storm is finding ways to miss us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's so much more amped up this run and yet the PV is dropping south quicker so everything still gets pushed East. This storm is finding ways to miss us. It still looks like a general 3-6 inches to me; pretty much the consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It still looks like a general 3-6 inches to me; pretty much the consensus looks warm over I 95 to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Nam stays consistent with final output - IWM have it about a 1-3/2-4 type event - link below so no one argues... http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012218&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=054 picture is pretty clear at this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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