Rjay Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro looks a bit better, still formulating the details Looks colder. Maybe slightly east of the 0z run last night but near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Front end NYC of 4 inches possible in NYC KNYC Hour 42 850 -2 BL 32 Hour 48 850 0 - BL 30 Hour 51 850 0 BL 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 3-5" on the front end, a little less than that North of 80. The heart of the dynamics still stay offshore. Oakland, NJ - 0.40" Sussex, NY - 0.20" Newark, NJ - 0.70" JFK - 0.80" NYC - 0.70" HPN - 0.30" West Milford, NJ - 0.30" Trenton, NJ - 0.60" Smithtown, NY - 1.10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Front end NYC of 4 to 6 inches possible in NYC KNYC Hour 42 850 -2 BL 32 Hour 48 850 0 - BL 30 Hour 51 850 0 BL 33 Is there anything after that period, CCB or main core of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yea why is there only a front end thump of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 3-5" on the front end, a little less than that North of 80. The heart of the dynamics still stay offshore. Oakland, NJ - 0.40" Sussex, NY - 0.20" Newark, NJ - 0.70" JFK - 0.80" NYC - 0.70" HPN - 0.30" West Milford, NJ - 0.30" Trenton, NJ - 0.60" Smithtown, NY - 1.10" Back end CCB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick T Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 what a difference a day makes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 The system doesn't close off at H5 until up into Canada so it's a slowly developing CCB that drops more snow as you move further northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Is there anything after that period, CCB or main core of the storm? No CCB . Some rain on the s shore of long island , 850s on the N shore are a tad colder so is the BL Some rain too into MC . But the threat of accumulating snow has now moved to the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Temperatures get dicey near the city for about a six hour period before flipping back to snow. Places 30 miles NW of the city stay as snow but with lighter liquid amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The system doesn't close off at H5 until up into Canada so it's a slowly developing CCB that drops more snow as you move further northeast. yup - said yesterday SNE would do better with this setup - pretty good model agreement at the moment - the weaker scraper idea looks to have won out.. Many cautioned yesterday not to take the Euro at face value - it didnt make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The final verdict seems to be shaping up as an area wide 3-6 inches ( unless last minute surprise takes place) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 The differences aloft this run were huge from the 00z run. The northern stream vort completely phases in and the kicker shortwave was weaker and further NW. I don't think we're at the final outcome yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 yup - said yesterday SNE would do better with this setup - pretty good model agreement at the moment - the weaker scraper idea looks to have won out.. Many cautioned yesterday not to take the Euro at face value - it didnt make sense. but it a isn't "scraper" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 3-5" on the front end, a little less than that North of 80. The heart of the dynamics still stay offshore. Oakland, NJ - 0.40" Sussex, NY - 0.20" Newark, NJ - 0.70" JFK - 0.80" NYC - 0.70" HPN - 0.30" West Milford, NJ - 0.30" Trenton, NJ - 0.60" Smithtown, NY - 1.10" Is this liquid all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Is this liquid all snow? That's liquid, a lot of that is frozen, espeically N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 yup - said yesterday SNE would do better with this setup - pretty good model agreement at the moment - the weaker scraper idea looks to have won out.. Many cautioned yesterday not to take the Euro at face value - it didnt make sense. .7 into KNYC 1 inch a liquid to JFK and Monmouth county 1.2 onto Suffolk County is no way constitutes a scraper 996 to 975 in 12 hours is not weak . OBX to CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Is this liquid all snow? Liquid. Snow amounts are less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Please refrain from drawing conclusions or claiming victory when you haven't even looked at the model data and are going solely off of what you've read here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The differences aloft this run were huge from the 00z run. The northern stream vort completely phases in and the kicker shortwave was weaker and further NW. I don't think we're at the final outcome yet. I agree with the last point. At still nearly 2 days out we can't lock anything in especially when it comes to storms like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The differences aloft this run were huge from the 00z run. The northern stream vort completely phases in and the kicker shortwave was weaker and further NW. I don't think we're at the final outcome yet. So your saying the surface reflection is wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 That's liquid, a lot of that is frozen, espeically N&W. This run of the Euro has some rain in LI and Coastal Monmouth.. All the rest is frozen. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 So your saying the surface reflection is wrong? What I'm saying is that often times it takes a few runs for the differences aloft to reflect at the surface. That's not always the case but we haven't had much run to run continuity yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 12z JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 .7 into KNYC 1 inch a liquid to JFK and Monmouth county 1.2 onto Suffolk County is no way constitutes a scraper 996 to 975 in 12 hours is not weak . OBX to CC you're right I used the wrong verbiage... fair enough. If things remain the same, the outcome will be right in-line with my thoughts that ive stuck by for days regarding the snow potential, despite my misuse of the term "scraper" - you know its kind of like you saying HECS yesterday, and 30" potential, sometimes you get caught up in the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 you're right I used the wrong verbiage... fair enough. If things remain the same, the outcome will be right in-line with my thoughts that ive stuck by for days regarding the snow potential, despite my misuse of the term "scraper" - you know its kind of like you saying HECS yesterday, and 30" potential, sometimes you get caught up in the moment 30 was not my comment , and The poster who said 30 was alluding to high end Miller A s where banding occurs . You may want to scroll back and see who said what my man . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 you're right I used the wrong verbiage... fair enough. If things remain the same, the outcome will be right in-line with my thoughts that ive stuck by for days regarding the snow potential, despite my misuse of the term "scraper" - you know its kind of like you saying HECS yesterday, and 30" potential, sometimes you get caught up in the moment IsentropicLift, on 21 Jan 2015 - 2:14 PM, said: A Euro run like that if verified would drop 30" in spots. A general 12-18" with pockets of 20-30". I think that could show up in New England . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 One trend that continues is the fast flow. This thing is pretty much done by Saturday afternoon and the next event is now occurring in the Sunday night/Monday morning timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 0 for 2 Uh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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