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Potential Major East Coast Storm on Saturday Part 2


IsentropicLift

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3-5" on the front end, a little less than that North of 80. The heart of the dynamics still stay offshore.

 

Oakland, NJ - 0.40"

Sussex, NY - 0.20"

Newark, NJ - 0.70"

JFK - 0.80"

NYC - 0.70"

HPN - 0.30"

West Milford, NJ - 0.30"

Trenton, NJ - 0.60"

Smithtown, NY - 1.10"

Back end CCB?

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Is there anything after that period, CCB or main core of the storm?

No CCB . Some rain on the s shore of long island , 850s on the N shore are a tad colder so is the BL

Some rain too into MC .

But the threat of accumulating snow has now moved to the front end. 

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The system doesn't close off at H5 until up into Canada so it's a slowly developing CCB that drops more snow as you move further northeast.

yup - said yesterday SNE would do better with this setup - pretty good model agreement at the moment - the weaker scraper idea looks to have won out.. Many cautioned yesterday not to take the Euro at face value - it didnt make sense. 

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3-5" on the front end, a little less than that North of 80. The heart of the dynamics still stay offshore.

 

Oakland, NJ - 0.40"

Sussex, NY - 0.20"

Newark, NJ - 0.70"

JFK - 0.80"

NYC - 0.70"

HPN - 0.30"

West Milford, NJ - 0.30"

Trenton, NJ - 0.60"

Smithtown, NY - 1.10"

 

 

Is this liquid all snow?

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yup - said yesterday SNE would do better with this setup - pretty good model agreement at the moment - the weaker scraper idea looks to have won out.. Many cautioned yesterday not to take the Euro at face value - it didnt make sense. 

 

.7 into KNYC

1 inch a liquid to JFK and Monmouth county 

1.2 onto Suffolk County is no way constitutes a scraper 

 

  996 to 975 in 12 hours is not weak . OBX to CC 

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The differences aloft this run were huge from the 00z run. The northern stream vort completely phases in and the kicker shortwave was weaker and further NW. I don't think we're at the final outcome yet.

I agree with the last point. At still nearly 2 days out we can't lock anything in especially when it comes to storms like this.

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.7 into KNYC

1 inch a liquid to JFK and Monmouth county 

1.2 onto Suffolk County is no way constitutes a scraper 

 

  996 to 975 in 12 hours is not weak . OBX to CC 

you're right I used the wrong verbiage... fair enough. If things remain the same, the outcome will be right in-line with my thoughts that ive stuck by for days regarding the snow potential, despite my misuse of the term "scraper"  - you know its kind of like you saying HECS yesterday, and 30" potential, sometimes you get caught up in the moment  :whistle:

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you're right I used the wrong verbiage... fair enough. If things remain the same, the outcome will be right in-line with my thoughts that ive stuck by for days regarding the snow potential, despite my misuse of the term "scraper"  - you know its kind of like you saying HECS yesterday, and 30" potential, sometimes you get caught up in the moment  :whistle:

30 was not my comment , and

 

The poster who said 30 was alluding to high end Miller A s where banding occurs . 

 

You may want to scroll back and see who said what my man . 

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you're right I used the wrong verbiage... fair enough. If things remain the same, the outcome will be right in-line with my thoughts that ive stuck by for days regarding the snow potential, despite my misuse of the term "scraper"  - you know its kind of like you saying HECS yesterday, and 30" potential, sometimes you get caught up in the moment  :whistle:

IsentropicLift, on 21 Jan 2015 - 2:14 PM, said:snapback.png

A Euro run like that if verified would drop 30" in spots. A general 12-18" with pockets of 20-30".

I think that could show up in New England . 

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