IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 We're within 48 hours of the event. When should be start worrying about temps? For the love of peace…there is no cold high to the north and without a rapidly developing storm this event is all but over for the coast and maybe even 30-40 miles inland. Not trying to pick on anyone but alot of people in this forum need to take off the snow goggles. I still think a rapidly deepening surface low is on the table. I liked the improvements at H5 regarding the phasing. I think the GFS is still playing catchup and hopeuflly the 00z Euro run was just a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 We're within 48 hours of the event. When should be start worrying about temps? Yesterday* It's a real issue and I'll post a chart shortly. As noted previously, blocking is associated with NYC's major or blockbuster storms (> 8" snowfall) during the second half of January. While numerous 4"-8" amounts (and lesser ones) have occurred when storms commenced with an AO+ (which is forecast for Saturday), almost none of the >8" snowstorms for that timeframe have occurred when the AO was positive. *-NWS Upton's forecast discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 HPN: 0.60" NYC: 0.72" POU: 0.27" Considering this model was showing a total miss.. It's encouraging. Now we just need it to be a little colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Considering this model was showing a total miss.. It's encouraging. Now we just need it to be a little colder. It's quite simple, get that CCB to develop roughly 6 hours sooner than what the 12z GFS had and many people here would be singing a different tune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 So from sounds of it Don due to Temp profile 1/2 of this QPF in NYC is lost to slop. But in any case .72 is a HUGE jump for the GFS & there should be reason for optimism here. It simply has close off further south and we are in business. At least half is probably lost to mixing or rain. Considering all the guidance, I still think a moderate snowstorm (3"-6" variety in the city) remains on the table. I suspect that by tonight's 0z and tomorrow's 12z runs, we'll be able to have good confidence in whether the storm will close off a little farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 We're within 48 hours of the event. When should be start worrying about temps? For the love of peace…there is no cold high to the north and without a rapidly developing storm this event is all but over for the coast and maybe even 30-40 miles inland. Not trying to pick on anyone but alot of people in this forum need to take off the snow goggles. Maybe for the city and coast it might be minor... but definitely not 30-40 miles inland that seems quite far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The one euro one (yesterday's 12z) may have been an outlier. No high to the north and a less deep system spells trouble. Yeh the Euro was too amped and the explosive CCB ( outside the NAVGEM ) was on it`s own . I bought it , I was wrong . Best skill score model F%^& me . If this holds KUDOS do not go to the OTS crowd as the SLP is at the BM with .75 to 1 inch of liquid at KNYC ( thats not OTS ) , its to Bluewave who has been arguing progression and against closing off so early . 2-4 , 3- 6 is still possible . The bigger totals look like they wait until Monday . The GFS and UKMET are there . No towel throwing yet for 6 plus but it`s my hand . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 I think it's important to note that the further N&W you get from the city, the colder temps will be. So while NYC may have lost about half to rain or a mix on the 12z GFS, the same can not be said for places further inland. Of course those areas see less moisture so you're giving and taking away at the same time. That's why I still feel as if the NW burbs will be the place to be with this one, basically where the most moisture overlaps the coldest temps for the longest duration. I know a lot of folks on Long Island don't want to hear that but in this pattern you're going to have to take what you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 At least half is probably lost to mixing or rain. Considering all the guidance, I still think a moderate snowstorm (3"-6" variety in the city) remains on the table. I suspect that by tonight's 0z and tomorrow's 12z runs, we'll be able to have good confidence in whether the storm will close off a little farther south. Hey Don... how do you think areas in northern westchester will fair? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yeh the Euro was too amped and the explosive CCB ( outside the NAVGEM ) was on it`s own . I bought it , I was wrong . Best skill score model F%^& me . If this holds KUDOS do not go to the OTS crowd as the SLP is at the BM with .75 to 1 inch of liquid at KNYC ( thats not OTS ) , its to Bluewave who has been arguing progression and against closing off so early . 2-4 , 3- 6 is still possible . The bigger totals look like they wait until Monday . The GFS and UKMET are there . No towel throwing yet for 6 plus but it`s my hand . Yeah that's not true, basically every model yesterday at 12z had a bomb except for the GFS. The NAM lost it at 18z and the rest of the pieces fell off at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Any CMC news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yeah that's not true, basically every model yesterday at 12z had a bomb except for the GFS. The NAM lost it at 18z and the rest of the pieces fell off at 00z. NAVGEM and GEM had it but the GEM was very warm for 9 hours - I bought the Euro and its poss convection, banding . Non of that is modeled now . Chris argued that it would be hard to close off fast . The Euro did that . If we end up with 3 to 6 I don`t think anyone should complain . The upside is limited here and I think it`s ok to take the middle ground . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GGEM looks to be following the GFS, wider precip shield, sharp cutoff and warmer temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Below is a chart that illustrates the maximum 850 mb temperature during the upcoming storm for the last three runs of the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Hey Don... how do you think areas in northern westchester will fair? Perhaps a similar range. More snowfall, but less qpf. Even there, a risk of at least some sleet for a period of time is a distinct possibility, if the 12z GFS is correct.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Based off the crappy B&W maps the GGEM looks good precip wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Nice front end dump for the whole area on the 12z GGEM. Probably close to 0.25" frozen on the front end. Maybe even more in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Nice front end dump for the whole area on the 12z GGEM. Probably close to 0.25" frozen on the front end. Maybe even more in some spots. Mine won't load past 48 hrs, what it showing for areas say, 40-50 miles north of nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 992mb about 75 miles southeast of ACY. You can really see the northern stream energy attempting to drag everything back towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 992mb about 75 miles southeast of ACY. You can really see the northern stream energy attempting to drag everything back towards the coast. That's not a bad track at all. Only thing missing is the colder air haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GGEM looks ok for Saturday on the front . Front end , no CCB on the 1st Will post on the 2 nd in the other thread . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 What's qpf output for the GFS for the city and points NW MGJ-- .13" SWF-- .20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 MGJ-- .13" SWF-- .20" Terrible lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yeh the Euro was too amped and the explosive CCB ( outside the NAVGEM ) was on it`s own . I bought it , I was wrong . Best skill score model F%^& me . If this holds KUDOS do not go to the OTS crowd as the SLP is at the BM with .75 to 1 inch of liquid at KNYC ( thats not OTS ) , its to Bluewave who has been arguing progression and against closing off so early . 2-4 , 3- 6 is still possible . The bigger totals look like they wait until Monday . The GFS and UKMET are there . No towel throwing yet for 6 plus but it`s my hand . Excellent post, with one minor comment. I'd only issue "preliminary kudos" until after the storm (or at least a model consensus is reached). Even with the best track, without dynamic cooling snow turns to rain/sleet, if one does not have cold enough air in place - it's actually pretty simple at a fundamental level. That's why it only rains in the summer, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Excellent post, with one minor comment. I'd only issue "preliminary kudos" until after the storm (or at least a model consensus is reached). Even with the best track, without dynamic cooling snow turns to rain/sleet, if one does not have cold enough air in place - it's actually pretty simple at a fundamental level. That's why it only rains in the summer, lol... I actually think this has reversed in the way it snows here .It may have evolved into a front thump and thenwe hope for the back end rain to be less intense . The CCB looks like it does not want to materialize , If we can get the precip in here ahead of the mid level burst then we can accumulate on the front , then we deal with the back end effects . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I actually think this has reversed in the way it snows here .It may have evolved into a front thump and thenwe hope for the back end rain to be less intense . The CCB looks like it does not want to materialize , If we can get the precip in here ahead of the mid level burst then we can accumulate on the front , then we deal with the back end effects . I think your hugging a little too much. We have seen good threats over the years look great at three days and go to crap on the models around two days only to come back. Going with the theme of the winter and the SE ridge I think rain is inevitable but the CCB is still on the table with any system sub 980 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Anybody have access to the Euro for pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro @ 48: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2015012212®ion=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=048 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro looks a bit better, still formulating the details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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