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Potential Major East Coast Storm on Saturday Part 2


IsentropicLift

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A 980 low will not automatically mean huge precip well NW of the low. The upper air features have to develop and close off so that precip can pivot west and cold air can crash in. People should get past looking at a surface map and expecting X to happen. The pattern is still quite progressive and the strengthening low can still be nudged too far east before the low can truly mature.

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Everything closes off except for 500mb. Everything just develops a hair too late. More phasing occured and everything was very close to being a huge run. It was a great sign seeing the precip make it further inland and the more phasing that occured. You can see the jet becoming energized as the trailing vort drops in. We're not there yet, but it was certainly a large step in the right direction.

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For those keeping track at home: NAM showing roughly 2-4" for the area, GFS showing 1-3"/2-4" - not too bad of a consensus between the two - let's see what the Euro shows..

at this point, if I could lock in 2-4" id be happy

You're on for that beer by the way if it ends up with this scenario, you've been calling for it for quite some time now. However, I still think a much larger storm remains in the realm of possibilities as we are a hairs breath away from a huge hit, even on the GFS.

IMHO it's still all or nothing.

United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer

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If trends continue then we're looking at more of a nuisance event. Even 2-4" would be a stretch if the warming becomes more significant. The pattern is also too progressive which doesn't give the system time to bomb out early enough to give us a CCB. It's another reason why people really need to stop hyping up storms.

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If trends continue then we're looking at more of a nuisance event. Even 2-4" would be a stretch if the warming becomes more significant. The pattern is also too progressive which doesn't give the system time to bomb out early enough to give us a CCB. It's another reason why people really need to stop hyping up storms.

Wait for the euro before declaring victory. The Gfs hasn't really been tested yet to see if it now has a warm bias. If the ecmwf comes in weak...then we'll know.

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The low over Quebec is a big fly in the ointment and why you need the dynamics to take over and crash the cold air south near the coast. If that doesn't happen this might just be a nuisance type event.

 

Yes without the scenario that yesterdays 12z Euro painted , you may wind up with 2 to 4 and be forced to wait for the Monday system . 

The air mass in front of this is poor  so without  a dynamic back end , it is what it is . 

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Quite simply, the 12z GFS is better than yesterday's runs, but not as snowy even as its own 6z run and definitely nowhere near what models were showing 36 hours ago. The models in general are coming into agreement that this storm will be a fast mover, will not get it's act together in time for anyone but New England for the most part, and temperatures will be marginal for most of us. At this point, as Don has mentioned before, it would be safer to expect - 2-4/3-6 inch type system, and we could even be on the low end of those amounts. I see this by the time it's over as one that will leave a sloppy few inches on some surfaces, and a rainy slush on others.

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You're on for that beer by the way if it ends up with this scenario, you've been calling for it for quite some time now. However, I still think a much larger storm remains in the realm of possibilities as we are a hairs breath away from a huge hit, even on the GFS.

IMHO it's still all or nothing.

United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer

:)  - you got it sir -- agree with you it is very close to something bigger - unfortunately close only counts in horse shoes and nuclear warfare... I think you know that I'd prefer for you to be right - would love to be eating crow and watching snow on Saturday (rhyme unintentional)

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Yes without the scenario that yesterdays 12z Euro painted , you may wind up with 2 to 4 and be forced to wait for the Monday system . 

The air mass in front of this is poor  so without  a dynamic back end , it is what it is . 

The one euro one (yesterday's 12z) may have been an outlier.    No high to the north and a less deep system spells trouble.

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Why are people obsessing over temps? And Anthony, you? Of all people? Please...you shuld know better than that. This isn't the final outcome but a necessary step.

We're within 48 hours of the event.  When should be start worrying about temps?

For the love of peace…there is no cold high to the north and without a rapidly developing storm this event is all but

over for the coast and maybe even 30-40 miles inland.

 

Not trying to pick on anyone but alot of people in this forum need to take off the snow goggles.

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