FPizz Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 seems wet more than white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS is much better. CCB is better developed and stretches back into NE PA. It looks warm but that will work itself out. Just happy to see the good moisture make it inland. How wiill the warmth "work itself out" with a 994 low in Quebec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 The coast flips to snow as the system begins to deepen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 But warmer We have two colder models, one warmer. I am sure we go snow to mix back to snow with CCB. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 We have two colder models, one warmer. I am sure we go snow to mix back to snow with CCB. Rossi That's if it develops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 How wiill the warmth "work itself out" with a 994 low in Quebec? You can see the dynamic cooling go to work as the system deepens and the CCB begins to crank. The 850mb freezing line goes from the Poconos to Long Island in three hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 A 980 low will not automatically mean huge precip well NW of the low. The upper air features have to develop and close off so that precip can pivot west and cold air can crash in. People should get past looking at a surface map and expecting X to happen. The pattern is still quite progressive and the strengthening low can still be nudged too far east before the low can truly mature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 You can see the dynamic cooling go to work as the system deepens and the CCB begins to crank. The 850mb freezing line goes from the Poconos to Long Island in three hours. Precip is over by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Everything closes off except for 500mb. Everything just develops a hair too late. More phasing occured and everything was very close to being a huge run. It was a great sign seeing the precip make it further inland and the more phasing that occured. You can see the jet becoming energized as the trailing vort drops in. We're not there yet, but it was certainly a large step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Precip is over by then No, a few tenths fall from MMU East from 18z to 00z. More on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I think for people wanting more than 4-6" of snow...pray for a bomb like the Euro showed yesterday. Otherwise, prepare yourself for a marginal event...slop that ends as snow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Trends today have been good, I think we are going to end up with a strong storm near a perfect track, but the snow-zone does looked to be small (sandwiched in between a squashed nw precip shield and rain/mix). Would probably want to be near I-95 or just NW at this point for the best chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 And marginal this winter is a BIG step up from what we have had. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Why are people obsessing over temps? And Anthony, you? Of all people? Please...you shuld know better than that. This isn't the final outcome but a necessary step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 For the City and Coastal sections around .2-.3 falls as snow after most of the storm is a mix of ra/sn. A general 2-4 inches on the 12z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 For much of the Mid-Atlantic, including the greater NYC area, the 12z GFS has some snow (front and back ends), but is predominantly rain. The push of warmth, flagged yesterday afternoon by the NWS (Upton), has grown stronger with recent runs of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 For those keeping track at home: NAM showing roughly 2-4" for the area, GFS showing 1-3"/2-4" - not too bad of a consensus between the two - let's see what the Euro shows.. at this point, if I could lock in 2-4" id be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The low over Quebec is a big fly in the ointment and why you need the dynamics to take over and crash the cold air south near the coast. If that doesn't happen this might just be a nuisance type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 For those keeping track at home: NAM showing roughly 2-4" for the area, GFS showing 1-3"/2-4" - not too bad of a consensus between the two - let's see what the Euro shows.. at this point, if I could lock in 2-4" id be happy You're on for that beer by the way if it ends up with this scenario, you've been calling for it for quite some time now. However, I still think a much larger storm remains in the realm of possibilities as we are a hairs breath away from a huge hit, even on the GFS. IMHO it's still all or nothing. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 If trends continue then we're looking at more of a nuisance event. Even 2-4" would be a stretch if the warming becomes more significant. The pattern is also too progressive which doesn't give the system time to bomb out early enough to give us a CCB. It's another reason why people really need to stop hyping up storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 If trends continue then we're looking at more of a nuisance event. Even 2-4" would be a stretch if the warming becomes more significant. The pattern is also too progressive which doesn't give the system time to bomb out early enough to give us a CCB. It's another reason why people really need to stop hyping up storms. Wait for the euro before declaring victory. The Gfs hasn't really been tested yet to see if it now has a warm bias. If the ecmwf comes in weak...then we'll know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 What's qpf output for the GFS for the city and points NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The low over Quebec is a big fly in the ointment and why you need the dynamics to take over and crash the cold air south near the coast. If that doesn't happen this might just be a nuisance type event. Yes without the scenario that yesterdays 12z Euro painted , you may wind up with 2 to 4 and be forced to wait for the Monday system . The air mass in front of this is poor so without a dynamic back end , it is what it is . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Quite simply, the 12z GFS is better than yesterday's runs, but not as snowy even as its own 6z run and definitely nowhere near what models were showing 36 hours ago. The models in general are coming into agreement that this storm will be a fast mover, will not get it's act together in time for anyone but New England for the most part, and temperatures will be marginal for most of us. At this point, as Don has mentioned before, it would be safer to expect - 2-4/3-6 inch type system, and we could even be on the low end of those amounts. I see this by the time it's over as one that will leave a sloppy few inches on some surfaces, and a rainy slush on others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 You're on for that beer by the way if it ends up with this scenario, you've been calling for it for quite some time now. However, I still think a much larger storm remains in the realm of possibilities as we are a hairs breath away from a huge hit, even on the GFS. IMHO it's still all or nothing. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer - you got it sir -- agree with you it is very close to something bigger - unfortunately close only counts in horse shoes and nuclear warfare... I think you know that I'd prefer for you to be right - would love to be eating crow and watching snow on Saturday (rhyme unintentional) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yes without the scenario that yesterdays 12z Euro painted , you may wind up with 2 to 4 and be forced to wait for the Monday system . The air mass in front of this is poor so without a dynamic back end , it is what it is . The one euro one (yesterday's 12z) may have been an outlier. No high to the north and a less deep system spells trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Why are people obsessing over temps? And Anthony, you? Of all people? Please...you shuld know better than that. This isn't the final outcome but a necessary step. We're within 48 hours of the event. When should be start worrying about temps? For the love of peace…there is no cold high to the north and without a rapidly developing storm this event is all but over for the coast and maybe even 30-40 miles inland. Not trying to pick on anyone but alot of people in this forum need to take off the snow goggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 What's qpf output for the GFS for the city and points NW HPN: 0.60" NYC: 0.72" POU: 0.27" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 HPN: 0.60" NYC: 0.72" POU: 0.27" mAppreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 HPN: 0.60" NYC: 0.72" POU: 0.27" So from sounds of it Don due to Temp profile 1/2 of this QPF in NYC is lost to slop. But in any case .72 is a HUGE jump for the GFS & there should be reason for optimism here. It simply has close off further south and we are in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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