Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Great info and discussion tonight guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I don't have storm vista so I can't do Ecmwf play by play..only got free sites. On 1/22/2015 at 3:32 AM, IsentropicLift said: I don't know if I'll make the Euro tonight. I'll probably look at the GFS and GGEM and decide if it's worth it. Tomorrow night will be much more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 If no one else has the ECMWF by the time it starts to roll out I might stick around to do a PBP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 On 1/22/2015 at 3:29 AM, SnowGoose69 said: It pretty much assumes no limit to the atmosphere, thats why it generates 5.00 liquid sometimes 60 hours out in snowstorms, to the NAM the atmosphere is neverendingly convective. I remember it had a run for the March 1-2nd, 2009 noreaster where it went ballistic with like 15-24 inch projections up and down the Phi-NYC corridor. It went nuts for the Feb 2013 blizzard too (showing 6 in. QPF in some spots). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Just a FWIW... Our kicker is still over the Pacific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 39 hr gfs 1012 low in ne gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Through 36hrs on the GFS the trough looks sharper than 18z. 1012mb surface low in the northern Gulf. It actually looks quite a bit more amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Trough is more sharper 100%. On 1/22/2015 at 3:42 AM, IsentropicLift said: Through 36hrs on the GFS the trough looks sharper than 18z. 1012mb surface low in the northern Gulf. It actually looks quite a bit more amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 On 1/22/2015 at 3:42 AM, IsentropicLift said: Through 36hrs on the GFS the trough looks sharper than 18z. 1012mb surface low in the northern Gulf. It actually looks quite a bit more amped up.I can guarantee you I'm not the only one happy to hear that good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Almost laughable changes. Much sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 On 1/22/2015 at 3:25 AM, SnowGoose69 said: The only apparent difference with the RGEM at 48 just seeing the surface so far to the NAM is that it is faster How did the rgem runs end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 To keep the bar fairly low, the 18z GFS gave NYC 0.03" qpf. On a more serious note, if the last storm was representative, the GFS eventually moved aggressively toward the ECMWF with timing that would make tomorrow's 12z run perhaps the crucial one. I don't think one will be able to make much of any shift this evening, though one would like to see the 6z run also continue such a shift, should it occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 At 42 you can already tell she's gonna be west of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Trough going negative tilt at hour 60. The kicker is further south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 On 1/22/2015 at 3:47 AM, swamplover56 said: On 1/22/2015 at 3:25 AM, SnowGoose69 said: The only apparent difference with the RGEM at 48 just seeing the surface so far to the NAM is that it is faster How did the rgem runs end? RGEM only runs to 48, although I thought there might be an extended frame to 54, but it's generally only a product out to 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Not going to be good enough for us. You can see the PV pushing it East. At least it's going to bomb, 983mb 250 miles off the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's wetter than 18z for sure, not that it's much of an accomplishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Gfs is not going to do it... the kicker it too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 966mb 300 miles east of Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 At least it bombs. Is it farther west than 18z? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012200/gfs_uv250_eus_10.png very very hot 250 mb jet steak -140kts est- over the top of the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 I can not say that I'm the least bit surprised. The GFS always does this. Normally the first model to pick up on a storm before losing it and then the last one to bring it back. I'll never forget how awful it was with Sandy, trying to back it into Maine 72 hours out while the Euro was into VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Well only 150 miles west and we are in business on the gfs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Well at least it's consistent. If the CMC starts to shift east and the UKMET holds true, then the ECMWF will be all the more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 On 1/22/2015 at 3:54 AM, IsentropicLift said: 966mb 300 miles east of Cape CodImho, there's no way that kicker is strong enough to shunt that strong a storm east like that. I've seen this set up before with this song and dance. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 On 1/22/2015 at 3:56 AM, Doorman said: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012200/gfs_uv250_eus_10.png Stop posting stuff with no explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 On 1/22/2015 at 3:57 AM, USCG RS said: Imho, there's no way that kicker is strong enough to shunt that strong a storm east like that. I've seen this set up before with this song and dance. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer I should clarify, a storm that becomes the behemoth that the GFS is predicting with a ridge this sharp on the East Coast is not getting shunted ots by that kicker. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I particularly enjoy the sheared off precip shield on the 66hr panel. LOL. Look at it. Looks like the NW quadrant got decapitated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 On 1/22/2015 at 4:00 AM, USCG RS said: I should clarify, a storm that becomes the behemoth that the GFS is predicting with a Ridge this sharpen the East Coast is not getting shunted ots by that kicker. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Was about to clarify that for you. Completely agree. The GFS is not a sheared out mess. It's a big storm that just gets kicked way to easily. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 On 1/22/2015 at 3:49 AM, SleetStormNJ said: RGEM only runs to 48, although I thought there might be an extended frame to 54, but it's generally only a product out to 48. Not your classic pre snowstorm setup. A 1023 high sliding east of NJ and a 1014 high 600 miles east of Hudson Bay ridging eastward. If that don't tell you this is going to have to be a dynamic cooling event snow event I don't know what does. Thread the needle folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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