IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 With the start of the 00z runs tonight I thought it would be a good idea to start a new thread, especially given that the other one is up to 30 pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Let's have a great night of model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 NAM @ 30 hours. Negligible changes so far Don't make any assumptions about the outcome of the run until the system has passed so we don't clutter the thread up like the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 SREF west: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 SREF west: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Nam is different than 18 z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 00z NAM @ 36 hours Low over Gulfport, MS and beginning to take in a lot of Gulf moisture. Trough is backed slightly SW compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Nam is different than 18 z so far Not really much thru 36...maybe a hair farther south with the slp in the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Trough is not as sharp but it's early in the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Trough is not as sharp but it's early in the run I know you're trying but that would not be correct. Please allow those of us that know what we're doing to handle it, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 No problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 NAM @ 39 hours Kicker over southern Canada is digging a bit more and the trough axis is still backed further SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 The trend since 12z on all of the modeling has been to hang the trough back more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 1016mb over the western FL panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Is this the run we get NAM'd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 NAM @ 42 hours The kicker over MN is definitely the larger change so far in this run. Continues to dig in further south Large system taking shape over the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 At hour 45 the trough looks sharper and the 500mb jet is more energized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 NAM @ 45 hours Compared to the 18z, the trough axis seems to be far enough west and the energy over MN seems to be digging enough to where we should see some changes later on in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 NAM @ 42 hours The kicker over MN is definitely the larger change so far in this run. Continues to dig in further south Large system taking shape over the SE If that can speed up some it would increase the chances of at least a partial phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 That trailing shortwave is really diving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The 500mb setup doesn't seem too far off from the 18z GFS with regards to the kicker. The main changes are present in the south with the NAM having more of a favorable trough position so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 1012mb surface low over southern GA. Moisture just about up to southern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 At hour 51 the trough looks significantly more amplified than the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 NAM @ 51 hours Energy continues to dive SE and is beginning to near the large trough over the South. We may actually see a partial phase like Isentropic alluded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 You can see the trailing vort starting to interact with the trough at hour 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 You can see the trailing vort starting to interact with the trough at hour 54 Trough back further west and the energy is beginning to get involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 At 57 hours it's not even close. The trough axis is probably a good 50+ miles West of the 18z run, maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Please specify if good or bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Hour 60 997mb just east of OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Hour 60 The energy needs to phase in quickly because it is significantly limiting the QPF field on the NW side of the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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