Rjay Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I always say toss the nam but since people will talk about it anyway...shows a nice small event for the city on east. Maybe a moderate event towards Suffolk Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 For the Euro to go from nothing to this is huge. Euro is deadly in this time frame, and it looked as though the Navgem, GEFS & NAM have all gone sorta towards its solution. Now his name is Dr. No for a reason, but the Euro really could be on to something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 For the Euro to go from nothing to this is huge. Euro is deadly in this time frame, and it looked as though the Navgem, GEFS & NAM have all gone sorta towards its solution. Now his name is Dr. No for a reason, but the Euro really could be on to something here. The last two runs of the NAM have also trended closer to the coast. Even as the NAM is outside its more useful range, that both higher resolution models are picking up on something is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The last two runs of the NAM have also trended closer to the coast. Even as the NAM is outside its more useful range, that both higher resolution models are picking up on something is interesting. and yet UPTON is going in other direction, with no mention of EURO, almost as if they didnt see it. Sometimes I truly dont understand their thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Just saw that EURO run, would be a crushing here if it happened. 1.6" liquid over here, all snow. Where can I sign up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 and yet UPTON is going in other direction, with no mention of EURO, almost as if they didnt see it. Sometimes I truly dont understand their thinking They're tied up with today's event right now, they definitely saw it but I believe they have a chance of snow in the forecast which covers them for now, if 12z runs keep it up they'll sound the alarms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Upton did mention the Euro in the latest discussion they said at this time it's an outlier!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Upton did mention the Euro in the latest discussion they said at this time it's an outlier!!!!!!!! at this time it is... but rooting for our eastern LI peeps - that would be awesome to see from a met perspective.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 6z GEFS is west of the 0z GEFS but still a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Hopefully things will continue to trend in our favor today, I would like to see the heavier snow continue to shift back west on future model runs. The 0z Euro looked like NENJ would do anywhere from between 6-10" depending on your exact location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 At the least it looks like 1-3" from the system...maybe more. Better than yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 6z GEFS is west of the 0z GEFS but still a miss The GFS New is useless. Please use Euro. Last night GFS 2" here we have almost 5 Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 6z navgem. Shifting west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 6z navgem. Shifting west. yup -looks like E. LI and SNE may do quite well with this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 correct 35 members out of 50 from EPS.bomb out the clipper..so the Euro is not that crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 as I said my Blog on thursday night MANITOBA MAULERS are rare but extremely dangerous or dynammic. 8-10 FEB 1969 and FEB 5-7 1978 both MM.... I dont know if NYC LI and se third of New England are going to get crushed like this BUT it might Once this MM reaches the coast ...with its severe negative tilt...it is going to go BOOM Perhaps it drops further south .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 One other point... we wont know how far south the MM will " dig" until this current Low gets up into SE Canada ... and becomes the 50/ 50 Low... in fact the whole god damn pattern has changed as the PV has finally left Baffin island and is coming south ... NOW its winter ... maybe 60 days of it coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 as I said my Blog on thursday night MANITOBA MAULERS are rare but extremely dangerous or dynammic. 8-10 FEB 1969 and FEB 5-7 1978 both MM.... I dont know if NYC LI and se third of New England are going to get crushed like this BUT it might Once this MM reaches the coast ...with its severe negative tilt...it is going to go BOOM Perhaps it drops further south .... MM's - rare - and VERY tough to pinpoint - will definitely be a close call - if I had to throw out a location that may stand the best chance, I would throw out e li and SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Dave -- Can you elaborate on potential impact if it does drop further south? Thanx as I said my Blog on thursday night MANITOBA MAULERS are rare but extremely dangerous or dynammic. 8-10 FEB 1969 and FEB 5-7 1978 both MM.... I dont know if NYC LI and se third of New England are going to get crushed like this BUT it might Once this MM reaches the coast ...with its severe negative tilt...it is going to go BOOM Perhaps it drops further south .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 ROGUE IF the Mm were to drop further south the heavy band would run from Boston/ cape cod to demarva possibly into chessy Bay ps Loved you the Xmen movies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 turns out I was right about the Mixing getting into NYC / Long island after all.... MM's - rare - and VERY tough to pinpoint - will definitely be a close call - if I had to throw out a location that may stand the best chance, I would throw out e li and SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 turns out I was right about the Mixing getting into NYC / Long island after all.... who said mixing wouldnt make it into the city? was that ever even a question? might have me confused with someone else - there are very few coastals where that doesnt happen for those areas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbo073 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 turns out I was right about the Mixing getting into NYC / Long island after all.... Everyone predicted mixing would be an issue, you surely werent the only one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Everyone predicted mixing would be an issue, you surely werent the only one And mixing isn't really a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Thanks, Dave. Stay well. (Nick says hi; we'll have to have you back on the radio show). ROGUE IF the Mm were to drop further south the heavy band would run from Boston/ cape cod to demarva possibly into chessy Bay ps Loved you the Xmen movies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks like the 09z SREF mean is a hair drier. Hard to tell of ncep site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks like the 09z SREF mean is a hair drier. Hard to tell of ncep site. Further west than 3z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Further west than 3zWith the mean SLP but not QPF. Out of range anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 what is the ideal track for an MM/ like system for our area? exiting off va /nc coast, strengthening off delmarva? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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