WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Define big hit for NYC?! or is it one of those deals 1-3 in the city and 8-14 for LI? 6" for the city, 12-18"+ LI Obviously this will change a bit, or might not even happen at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 6" for the city, 12-18"+ LI Obviously this will change a bit, or might not even happen at all I thought it was only a e LI hit. 6 inches is great if it does happen as the euro depicts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 No mixing issue worries with this one (if it happens) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks like 6-10" from nnj to the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro just went nuts. The energy on the backside of this SW catches this from behind and spins up a long duration cold snowstorm for the jersey shore but more so Long Island and into New England If this system can get caught just a bit sooner off the Delmarva it will get pulled back be closer to the coast and get everyone. That was close. We are just another 75 miles west and just a little earlier and it would be a great snowstorm. Fingers crossed peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 This could be overdone, the ensembles will be big, if they're largely misses or just SNE E LI hits we can toss this run probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks like 6"-10" on the euro for NYC and its boroughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Temps in lower 20s and teens. Higher than 10 to 1 ratios, that most snowfall maps use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 No mixing issue worries with this one (if it happens) None at all. 850mb temps are below freezing all the way down to southern Georgia during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Any chance it might shift west about 50 miles or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 UKMET looks quite similar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Any chance it might shift west about 50 miles or so? Asked the same ? on another forum this was the response: it would have to keep digging. The northern stream catches it at last second and tugs it in. Slow it down 6hrs and it would be further west. Actually, it probably would be fine with where it's at now, the northern stream would just have to phase in a little faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 UK.gif UKMET looks quite similar! The UKMET tried, I saw the 21Z SREFs were interesting a few hours ago but quickly forgot about it and figured they were wrong anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Maybe is not that crazy of a solution.. Its worth mentioning the shortwave responsible for the 00z Euro bomb is just made landfall in British Columbia. This was likely the first run that the shortwave had proper sampling by the North American radiosonde network. I say this because the run to run differences between the 12z and 00z here are well outside of the expected uncertainty provided by the 12z ECMWF EPS... like the 00z deterministic run is more extreme than even the most extreme 12z EC ensemble member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Yes because we should trust a model that only a few days ago had most of us receiving a foot of snow and more from this current storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Yes because we should trust a model that only a few days ago had most of us receiving a foot of snow and more from this current storm. All models had problem with the current storm. The euro was the first to bring this up the coast, and the one which performed best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Yes because we should trust a model that only a few days ago had most of us receiving a foot of snow and more from this current storm. The Euro was far and away the best model for this storm, and is bar none the best model in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 As much use as we can make of them the 03Z SREFs still show something of the idea of the Euro, nowhere near as bad from a quick glance but closer than the GFS/NAM would have you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The UKMET tried, I saw the 21Z SREFs were interesting a few hours ago but quickly forgot about it and figured they were wrong anyway. Yeah, a few SREF members gave Philly like 14-18 inches and I figured they must have gone crazy with clipper-coastal development (obviously tucked in closer than Euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 As much use as we can make of them the 03Z SREFs still show something of the idea of the Euro, nowhere near as bad from a quick glance but closer than the GFS/NAM would have you think. The mean has a heavy lean left. Actually one of the heaviest leans I've ever seen on the sref's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The mean has a heavy lean left. Actually one of the heaviest leans I've ever seen on the sref's. At first glance it appeared to be east of the 21Z, but when I took a second look I think several members came way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 What's crazy is this is less than 72 hours away. How often does the EURO jump like this? For SNE it went from 0 to 12-18 inches in one run. Could really just be a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 What's crazy is this is less than 72 hours away. How often does the EURO jump like this? For SNE it went from 0 to 12-18 inches in one run. Could really just be a hiccup. Yes, definitely, the ensembles will let us know if it was or not. I think after tonight though, if this turns out to just be a fluke everyone will take it alittle bit better than if this event busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 All models had problem with the current storm. The euro was the first to bring this up the coast, and the one which performed best. Also, the Euro did at least get the track to/near the benchmark right from Wednesday on and the rest of the models played catch-up on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ensembles should be out real soon now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ensembles should be out real soon now. I don't have storm vista but I hear they are east of the OP but well west of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Shhh, don't wake up the weenies, but the EURO just changes the ballgame for this storm, in a big way. absolutely HAMMERS E. LI The weenies have awaken and I'm shocked at the depiction but never doubted the potency of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The weenies have awaken and I'm shocked at the depiction but never doubted the potency of this system. Nobody did thats why the feelings were hurt when potential disappeared. At least we bought 1 more day being in the game now. If this Euro run wasnt a fluke by time 12 Z GFS we shall know if this was for real or just a bad tease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Nobody did thats why the feelings were hurt when potential disappeared. At least we bought 1 more day being in the game now. If this Euro run wasnt a fluke by time 12 Z GFS we shall know if this was for real or just a bad tease I'm not too sure about that. We'll know by the 12z Euro if this run had any merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 35 members out of 50 from EPS.bomb out the clipper..so the Euro is not that crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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