IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yet another strong vort is diving down the backside, it's like a train of vort maxes which dive down and attempt to amplify the flow but just keep getting kicked by the next one behind it, and no southern stream involvement at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Look at the lift at 72 . I may have jumped the gun a min ago . That's not dead by any means It`s not the best set up , but it does need some work for it to work . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's still worth monitoring that's quite an energetic system diving down and high placement is excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 We need the trailing vort to really dive down and attempt to phase. That might result in enough of a height rise as the transfer is occuing. Otherwise it's a similar problem to tomorrows event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This thing is going to end up shafting DCA in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This thing is going to end up shafting DCA in the end Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 As seen here the main vort is 100 - 150 mile west of Canada. Next how is the upstream vort going to pump up the ridge. Neither of these things are close to being sampled. The models are jiust throwing out guesses.....and I have no problem having a strong opinion either pro or con the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 With a flattening PNA ridge and an absence of blocking, it's difficult to envision the trough in the east sharpening quickly enough so as to hold the clipper close to the coast and then turn it more to the north as it redevelops off shore. If the clipper digs southward as much as is currently forecast, it will move rapidly out to sea off the Mid-Atlantic coast while making a fairly wide turn. Prospects of this clipper producing a significant or major snowfall in the greater NYC area are fairly low in the larger synoptic pattern that is shown on the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 What a shame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Why? The last 2 events down there approached more from a W-SW or W direction, this last one had a vort lifting up in the flow. This one dives in from the NW with a sharper downslope component for them and its trended south again on the Euro at 12z, also the vort sort of opens and gets wishy washy as it reaches near the EC. I'd want to be in the Oh Valley for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 What a shame Miller B's are almost impossible without some blocking. Nothing to slow down the flow enough to amplify up the coast. You need a perfect track otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Well, the NWS has downgraded Monday's snow chances to about 30%. It's not completely over, but . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The GFS is really close to trying to pull this off . We could use another 6 hour separation between tomorrow's system and this one and you would sharpen the trough axis just enough As it is at 18z the best VV is right through our area and it will not take much for this to develop close enough to effect us. It's a long lasting cold system . We are not there yet but we are close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The GFS is really close to trying to pull this off . We could use another 6 hour separation between tomorrow's system and this one and you would sharpen the trough axis just enough As it is at 18z the best VV is right through our area and it will not take much for this to develop close enough to effect us. It's a long lasting cold system . We are not there yet but we are close. Does any other model show this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Does any other model show this? Show what a near miss? Haven't seen the NAVGEM but all are misses. Like the GFS is. The post wasn't the GFS was a hit. It was that it's close and is not that far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Show what a near miss? Haven't seen the NAVGEM but all are misses. Like the GFS is. The post wasn't the GFS was a hit. It was that it's close and is not that far away. are any other models this close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Lol I told you guys like 2 days ago. This storm can't work out for us. But you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Lol I told you guys like 2 days ago. This storm can't work out for us. But you never know. You never posted why... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 are any other models this close? SREFS ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro is a big hit, and a mega hit for LI. Digs all the way to GA and then closes off H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Shhh, don't wake up the weenies, but the EURO just changes the ballgame for this storm, in a big way. absolutely HAMMERS E. LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro is a big hit, and a mega hit for LI. Digs all the way to GA and then closes off H5 Huge hit for LI and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 LI SNE MECS / BLIZZARD Wow, 40-50 miles west I-95 Blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 LOL, I got a text that said 2/1999 redux? and I knew right away what it meant the Euro did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro is a big hit, and a mega hit for LI. Digs all the way to GA and then closes off H5Wow.. Certainly this few days has been a rollercoaster.. Now it comes north? Can we hope it comes west too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Wow! Gotta see if this is the start of a trend or just a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 LOL, I got a text that said 2/1999 redux? and I knew right away what it meant the Euro did 2/99 was one of the Cape's greatest hits. What a run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 pretty pretty nice 3-5" NENJ to 6" NYC east....12-18" for eastern long island...Let's see if this is the start of something big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro is a big hit, and a mega hit for LI. Digs all the way to GA and then closes off H5 Define big hit for NYC?! or is it one of those deals 1-3 in the city and 8-14 for LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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