EasternLI Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Holy heck, I just saw the EURO......WOW. 2 feet on pretty much all of LI(according to weeniebell snow maps).......and thats not the highest totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 No one in this area ought to sweat amounts yet. Do you mean the prediction amounts? I posted the 06Z GFS amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 2000's have just been amazing for the ferocity and number of all types of weather extremes. The number of high end snow events continues to off the charts for such a relatively short duration in time. You can add the February 2013 blizzard to the list below which hammered Suffolk County. http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/BiggestSnowstorms.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 2000's have just been amazing for the ferocity and number of all types of weather extremes. The number of high end snow events continues to off the charts for such a relatively short duration in time. You can add the February 2013 blizzard to the list below which hammered Suffolk County. http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/BiggestSnowstorms.pdf How insane you get shut out all year then you drop your yearly average out of one storm and 4 days later there is another. Looking at the 10M winds its not the 30 to 40 sustained across the island that get me , its one the duration plus the hurricane force gusts out in eastern Suffolk that are possible. If you get 25 to 30 with 18 hours of those winds you gona see 10 ft drifts . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Sorry to be off topic here but.. So last night around 9PM i went on Craigs List to find a used but decent snow blower, I found a nice 8HP 24" one that was near new and ran mint, as i was loading in it up my Passat 4Motion i told the guy "Wow i got this just in time for a huge storm coming on Monday" Dude says, "no way.. Not going to happen" tells me he is only selling it because he thinks winter is a bust... We shall see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 How insane you get shut out all year then you drop your yearly average out of one storm and 4 days later there is another. Looking at the 10M winds its not the 30 to 40 sustained across the island that get me , its one the duration plus the hurricane force gusts out in eastern Suffolk that are possible. If you get 25 to 30 with 18 hours of those winds you gona see 10 ft drifts . This is just off the charts. I have never seen a comeback from a fish clipper to a full bird KU blizzard in 96 to 72 without stronger signals longer range than we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This is just off the charts. I have never seen a comeback from a fish clipper to a full bird KU blizzard in 96 to 72 without stronger signals longer range than we got. ecmwf_mslp_uv850_eus_5.png ecmwf_mslp_uv850_eus_4.png What every snow lover should realize unlike some of our great storm in the past where they came on the backside of a retreating troughs only to have their snow melt in a week to 10 days , this opens up to a extremely cold and potentially active pattern. We probably test 0. We snow again next weekend and the cold is then sustained. May not see bare ground until March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Blue wave, correct me if I'm wrong but, is Friday nights storm acting as a 50/50 impromptu blocking agent for this, which would also explain why models had it, and then lost once Friday's storm was in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Blue wave, correct me if I'm wrong but, is Friday nights storm acting as a 50/50 impromptu blocking agent for this, which would also explain why models had it, and then lost once Friday's storm was in our areasorry 2 jump in, 50 50 helps but the real key was the disturbance entering the coverage region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 sorry 2 jump in, 50 50 helps but the real key was the disturbance entering the coverage region. That's the only thing holding me back a little here this. Phil was saying last nite the backside SW full sampling will be in the 12z suites today so if we hold serve. Then I really start buying the 25 inch amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 That's the only thing holding me back a little here this. Phil was saying last nite the backside SW full sampling will be in the 12z suites today so if we hold serve. Then I really start buying the 25 inch amounts. Kudos for not bailing on this threat a few days ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think there was a period from the early 80's to the early 90's with one blizzard warning for the tri-state area. They have certainly increased in frequency the last dozen years. There were just two issued...one for 4/6/1982 and the other 10 months later for 2/11/83. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What every snow lover should realize unlike some of our great storm in the past where they came on the backside of a retreating troughs only to have their snow melt in a week to 10 days , this opens up to a extremely cold and potentially active pattern. We probably test 0. We snow again next weekend and the cold is then sustained. May not see bare ground until March. The eye-like feature on the first visible satellite images Tuesday morning south of Long Island is going to be icing on the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 i think most of the metro is good for 18-24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The eye-like feature on the first visible satellite images Tuesday morning south of Long Island is going to be icing on the cake. GFS_3_2015012506_F54_RH_500_MB.png the eye and the dryslot 2 features to look out for.that dryslot is going to be a killer for whoever gets under it until the ccb swings back around from the nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 One thing is for sure this is no ordinary clipper system,this baby is power loaded already it seems,once it hits the open waters of the Atlantic and seeks out the gulf stream power source it's going to be a monster.the current water vapor and satellite loops are already pretty impressive for this clipper as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 i think most of the metro is good for 18-24"wow you know it's serious when forky is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 wow you know it's serious when forky is on board Yeah, yeah.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 i think most of the metro is good for 18-24" forky/ or anyone, do you have the Newark top 5/10 or 20 snow storms list anywhere? I don't have my usual access and cant find a link on any searches. It differs a bit from the NYC one. thanks, TOny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 06Z GFS Cobb Method has 32" at LGA. Latest SREF is (just) 14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The initial over running tomorrow is the wildcard. Some areas could pick up several inches before the coastal arrives. That's part of what makes this system so epic on paper. Long duration, tons of moisture, intense winds. I think it has the potential to be a lot more widesoread than Boxing Day which really only had an intense but rather narrow band. And then you have the insanely good temperature profiles. We're talking 2" QPF in places with higher than normal ratios. The ceilings the limit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The NAM is useless here. Too much covective feedback near the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 1/25 06z Summary Just to post for reference NYC : QPF (snow) SREF: 0.80 - 1.00 (>12") NAM: 0.25 - 0.40 (>4") GFS: 1.25 - 1.50 (>15" ) GEFS: 1.25 - 1.50 (>15") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 So obviously the 0z EURO was amazing along with the 6z GFS and the 6z NAM wasn't all that great. Any other models overnight? Edit: preceding post answers my question, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 09z SREF mean is wetter. 1" contour West of TTN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 forky/ or anyone, do you have the Newark top 5/10 or 20 snow storms list anywhere? I don't have my usual access and cant find a link on any searches. It differs a bit from the NYC one. thanks, TOny NYC has had 4 20"+ storms in the last 9 years and a total 6 of them over the last 19 years. Prior to that they came every 30 years. Cutoff used to be the high teens, but seems to have increased 10% in the last 20 years, meaning an addition .10"-.30" of liquid equivalent in the biggest storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 09z SREF mean is wetter. 1" contour West of TTN Interested to know whether some of the members show Euro/GFS solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 First up is the 9z SREF. Beautiful hit with members leaning west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NYC has had 4 20"+ storms in the last 9 years and a total 6 of them over the last 19 years. Prior to that they came every 30 years. Cutoff used to be the high teens, but seems to have increased 10% in the last 20 years, meaning an addition .10"-.30" of liquid equivalent in the biggest storms. Thanks, good with NYC. I don't have access to my NJ data and wanted to list Newark's top snows like Blue has done for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 First up is the 9z SREF. Beautiful hit with members leaning west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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