UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM is way south now at 84, we probably lose the GFS at 00Z most likely. What's your reasoning? Why would the NAM at hour 84 be a source to assume the GFS follows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM is way south now at 84, we probably lose the GFS at 00Z most likely. Correct. GFS is way south. Congrats DC and SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyBlizzard17 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looks like 4-6" in Philly on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I dont even know which model is worst..but. How can we say the monday storm will be south just because it shows that now..if i recall this same model was showing the saturday storm 200 miles east..like 4 runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I dont even know which model is worst..but. How can we say the monday storm will be south just because it shows that now..if i recall this same model was showing the saturday storm 200 miles east..like 4 runs ago. The pattern does not really support the track being far enough north for us here, I would not be surprised if even Philly partially is screwed in the end, we may get in on it again if and only if the shortwave really amplifies and is able to turn up the coast slightly. Someone mentioned 3/8/84 in the MA thread, we need it to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 0z Navgem looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The pattern does not really support the track being far enough north for us here, I would not be surprised if even Philly partially is screwed in the end, we may get in on it again if and only if the shortwave really amplifies and is able to turn up the coast slightly. Someone mentioned 3/8/84 in the MA thread, we need it to do that. Yeah the pattern didnt support the saturday storm coming up the coast neither. If i recall this was OTS..and most said the same thing. The pattern supported to move ots thru the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 We've had this issue more than once now of clippers digging too much and exiting too far south. The progressive pattern also prevents them from strengthening too much and turning more northerly before they're gone. I'd venture a guess at this point that this will be another such occasion. The ridge out west looks fairly amplified, and there's no blocking to the north to slow down whatever dives south so it can turn left. From the looks of it, there's a shot at a narrow area of good snow around the M/D line and just south, especially inland. DC's temps look to be borderline as does coastal NJ. In the cold enough air up around NYC, there doesn't look to be much precip. Same story, different day this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yeah the pattern didnt support the saturday storm coming up the coast neither. If i recall this was OTS..and most said the same thing. The pattern supported to move ots thru the south. I was one of those who said early that this should come up the coast, and it is-just as a strung out mess that won't be able to generate much frozen precip-where it's too warm takes up most of the precip. Progressive +AO/+NAO patterns suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The UKMET is very sharp at 72 hours...I cannot see it past that, but I'd say there is a chance it tries to bring it up the coast after 84-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 This storm really reminds me of Jan 22 / 2005. Look at Narr renalysis...and this looks quite similar. The clipper dog pretty south and closed off. The gfs is more neg tilt at 00z and will likely close off on future runs. Ukmet below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This storm really reminds me of Jan 22 / 2005. Look at Narr renalysis...and this looks quite similar. The clipper dog pretty south and closed off. The gfs is more neg tilt at 00z and will likely close off on future runs. Ukmet below. The big difference is that the Arctic Oscillation was negative and diving at the time this storm turned into a blizzard. The rapidly developing blocking contributed greatly to how things unfolded. In contrast, the AO is forecast to be positive on Monday. That increases the prospects of a more progressive solution with a wider turn than what occurred in 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The big difference is that the Arctic Oscillation was negative and diving at the time this storm turned into a blizzard. The rapidly developing blocking contributed greatly to how things unfolded. In contrast, the AO is forecast to be positive on Monday. That increases the prospects of a more progressive solution with a wider turn than what occurred in 2005. Its really too bad Don, the position of that high is a beauyiful sight & the air mass would assist with some nice ratios. It really rfelects how difficult it is to get 6+ systems into all major I95 cities (south of BOS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Its really too bad Don, the position of that high is a beauyiful sight & the air mass would assist with some nice ratios. It really rfelects how difficult it is to get 6+ systems into all major I95 cities (south of BOS) Boston's in the same dinky boat as everyone else this year. El Nino seasons very rarely treat them better than the other cities (weak Ninos like 04-05 can be exceptions), and in some Ninos such as 09-10 they often get shafted by suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Boston's in the same dinky boat as everyone else this year. El Nino seasons very rarely treat them better than the other cities (weak Ninos like 04-05 can be exceptions), and in some Ninos such as 09-10 they often get shafted by suppression. Yes its true the EC has , largely suffered equally. Even PWM is down siginficantly from historical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Euro?Looks wetter and colder to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looks wetter and colder to me. Looks to be further south to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 4-6" is worthless now. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 6z navgem went further south. What once looked like a possible big storm isn't looking good anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 4-6" is worthless now. Lol. For Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The big difference is that the Arctic Oscillation was negative and diving at the time this storm turned into a blizzard. The rapidly developing blocking contributed greatly to how things unfolded. In contrast, the AO is forecast to be positive on Monday. That increases the prospects of a more progressive solution with a wider turn than what occurred in 2005. We just can't seem to get a sustained -AO this year. (and -NAO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Does this one look like a complete miss now? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 SREF is still way south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 We just can't seem to get a sustained -AO this year. (and -NAO) I agree. Almost as if to add insult to injury, the AO has again gone positive today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Not that it will make much of a difference since it looks like the brunt (or maybe all) of this storm goes south of us, but timing on public forecasts for this "event" is Sun night-Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Not that it will make much of a difference since it looks like the brunt (or maybe all) of this storm goes south of us, but timing on public forecasts for this "event" is Sun night-Monday morning.How far south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 12z GFS is going to have a different outcome. It's diving south at hour 45 and amped up. If we had a southern stream vort to work with it would blow up another big phase job, but everything is cut off over the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Nice snowstorm for Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's almost diving all the way to the Gulf. What a waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's going to transfer to a coastal well offshore. Just nothing there to force it up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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