Animal Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 6z NAM still isn't all that different from the 00z run. Low pressure developing well offshore with some light-mod precip over the area by 42 hours. Need to watch for the trend east on the models today. Still plenty of time for this to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 6z gfs is west...stronger..and crushes us. Gn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Need to watch for the trend east on the models today. Still plenty of time for this to occur. hi Jonger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Rgem drops 12mbs in six hours. That's explosive intensification even for a hurricane. Gonna get a few hours of sleep before things pick up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 06Z GFS puts out 15"-20" of snowfall from NE NJ/NYC into Western LI. Epic CCB from HR 48 through HR 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 6z gfs is west...stronger..and crushes us. Gnmy God. Stronger than the the 0Z would be MORE than 15!! Details anyone w the GFS plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 my God. Stronger than the the 0Z would be MORE than 15!! Details anyone w the GFS plz I already posted the amounts for the NYC Metropolitan Area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Geez the GFS annihilates Boston and E-LI ! Wow....a nice hit here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 my God. Stronger than the the 0Z would be MORE than 15!! Details anyone w the GFS plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think 1983 and 1996 were the ones in that time frame. We have had a bunch since 2003 I seem to remember one around the Super Bowl in 1987. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 6 z gfs too another step towards another euro like solution. Big snows, just not as extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Shifts overall west a little and is stronger ~ 21z Tues. My goodness...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What an incredible hit ! Too bad we can't just lock this one in as it is now. I'd take 15-20" without a second thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 06Z GFS puts out 15"-20" of snowfall from NE NJ/NYC into Western LI. Epic CCB from HR 48 through HR 60. Hits all of nj hard. 15 to 20 for the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 We should all start preparing as we really haven't been in a true blizzard in a few years,extreme safety should be exercised weather its 5 inches or 25 inches in these conditions.As it's looking now all models have a bomb,all we need to see is how far due north it gets before it slows down and crawls nne..n.y.c might be a special location because snow will pretty much come in from every direction without stopping for more then 2 days,plus the cold air is already there unless your in extreme eastern l.i and extreme se new england depending on the exact track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Am I looking at the wrong maps? The NCEP qpf amount doesnt get past 1" for NYC on the 6z gfs. How come snow maps show 12+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Am I looking at the wrong maps? The NCEP qpf amount doesnt get past 1" for NYC on the 6z gfs. How come snow maps show 12+?Clear your cache? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yes I had the wrong map. Thankfully! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Am I looking at the wrong maps? The NCEP qpf amount doesnt get past 1" for NYC on the 6z gfs. How come snow maps show 12+? prob hasnt fully updated yet,and even at a inch of liquid these ratios are going to be in excess of 16 to 18 to 1 = a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 is jim kosak doing a forecast for this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This is incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The HPC QPF forecast has the 1.5" isohyet bisecting KNYC and the 2.0" isohyet bisecting Upton, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 6z Gfs is 15-25" for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 absolutely incredible...we went from a winter on life support about 36 ago hours to potentially one of the greatest storms weve ever had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 So, correct me if I'm wrong, according to the 06z GFS Long Island should be under six inches of snow by 10 pm Monday and a foot by Tuesday 1-2 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Haven't seen a gradient like this in about 49 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I already posted the amounts for the NYC Metropolitan Area. No one in this area ought to sweat amounts yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This one should be moving out late Tuesday.....with maybe another 3-6 inches coming in Thursday into friday.....setting the stage for another larger event early the following week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 UPTON's latest, ominous discussion: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWERING AND THICKENING AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES TO WORK INTO THE AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MON. THE INGREDIENTS ARE THEN COMING TOGETHER FOR A POSSIBLE HISTORIC NOR`EASTER AS A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY MON. THIS LOW UNDERGOES RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE LOW CUTS OFF ALOFT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC MON NIGHT...LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MSLP DROPS NEARLY 30 MB IN 24H FROM MON TO TUE MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY FILLING. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NW FLANK OF THE LOW WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MDT-HVY SNOW IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MEMBERS SUPPORTS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT. THAT BEING THE CASE...SNOW BANDING WILL LIKELY EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR AT TIMES. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A FOOT WITH AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 2 FT POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE MOST INTENSE BANDING IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS JUNCTURE. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW TRACK AND ITS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER PCPN HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL CREATE NEAR OR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR LI AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CT...WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH ELSEWHERE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUST OF 35 TO 50 MPH...HIGHEST TO THE EAST. LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS MON MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY PICKS UP IN THE LATE AFT. MDT-HVY SNOW WILL FALL FOR MUCH OF MON NIGHT INTO TUE BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUE EVENING. TEMPS DURING THE STORM WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Nice AFD out of PHI from the great Walt Drag. Check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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