Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM seems to have the trough more positively tilted through 32 hours compared to the 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 When is 6z Nam ..and what time 6z gfs GFS isn't until 4:30AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 06z NAM 027hr/09z Mon 5h trof neutral tilt going neg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 AnY answer? I'm from Ohio so 8 don't really watch the coast much. Which are seems to be hit the hardest. I may drive over. We won't really know until Monday, but if you're looking for true blizzard conditions, I would think that Long Island is starting to look like a good place to stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Heights ahead of the trough are a bit higher by 36, which is encouraging. Northern stream energy seems a bit stronger as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 More Euro Tweets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Man NAM wants to start snow here monday morning..with initial primary surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 so much for the 8" maximum potential huh ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 don't think this run of the nam isn't going to cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 And this is still conservative considering the ratios could be closer to 15:1 - 17:1 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This NAM run doesn't really look to do it. Late development far offshore.....It is throwing back more price, just not much. The coverage does look a bit "fuller" though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 6z NAM still isn't all that different from the 00z run. Low pressure developing well offshore with some light-mod precip over the area by 42 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 And this is still conservative considering the ratios could be closer to 15:1 - 17:1 ... hmmm, 10:1-12:1 is more like it for most of us here. it's cold but not that cold to really produce that type of ratios. the consensus looks like a -6 to -10C 850mb and that's when the system really bombs out just southeast of LI. you'll probably find those ratios north of us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 And this is still conservative considering the ratios could be closer to 15:1 - 17:1 ... High winds cut down on ratios. And look for where the dendrite growth zone is in the soundings, it's optimal where it's -12C at 650mb-700mb. That gives the highest ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 lol, that map is a far cry from the one upton put out today. I imagine theirs will change drastically. Not sure why they even capped western zones at 7 or 8" for Maximum potential graphic. WSW and blizzard watches will probably go up with this package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 6z NAM looks really funky. Whole thing is 10mb weaker than the other guidance and there seems to be hints of convective feedback with dual lows embedded in the highest QPF regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 And this is still conservative considering the ratios could be closer to 15:1 - 17:1 ... why do you think ratios will be that high? 17-1 is pretty rare. and there looks to be some decent wind with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM will come in a bit west I'm thinking, surface low is already NW of 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 At 51 hours, the NAM is getting ready to hammer ELI and SNE. Way too far east for most of us though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM will come in a bit west I'm thinking, surface low is already NW of 6Z it looks like there is more precip, not sure how much more west it is, but maybe a little. still a far cry from the Euro or even the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJwx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM will come in a bit west I'm thinking, surface low is already NW of 6Z Looks that way through hr 42 doing a compare to the 48 hr 00zNAM I expect there to be more snow this run in the area, although nothing like the GFS/Euro/GGEM show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looks that way through hr 42 doing a compare to the 48 hr 00zNAM I expect there to be more snow this run in the area, although nothing like the GFS/Euro/GGEM show. NAM doing something funky down by DC though, looks like it wants to give DC something like 10 inches of snow. It is a weird setup, but it doesn't mean it can't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM is further west with precip shield but is weaker overall with the system. We should be giving this 0% weight on a model blend just entertainment value. The Euro or a Euro/CMC/GFS blend seems a much more reasonable solution to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Watch the NAM score a coup over the globals lol. I'm not saying that'll happen (like a 0.00000000....1% chance) but I wouldn't want to be anywhere near this subforum if that occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This run is going to be 2-4" snow in and around NYC, up to 6-12" for LI, and thebigtime stuff 15-20" for SNE right around Boston. Its just a bit scary seeing it literally a few hundred miles off of the euro with the big snows......not even close.....I at least hope to see it most west, a lot, tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM is just a mess at 5h with the rushing s/w and when/how to phase it compared to the 00z gfs. Translates to the surface also. Think NAM will need some more time to come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM is further west with precip shield but is weaker overall with the system. We should be giving this 0% weight on a model blend just entertainment value. The Euro or a Euro/CMC/GFS blend seems a much more reasonable solution to me. i dont think it is fair to give zero weight to the NAM 36 hours from the event, especially when it isnt completely on an island alone (see UKmet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 why do you think ratios will be that high? 17-1 is pretty rare. and there looks to be some decent wind with this storm.Because of what I wrote a while back in the ggem. I was reading what the model was showing and they must have thought I was expecting 17:1.. 15:1 is a good shot though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM Is by itself for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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