Rjay Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 You can't just decide to end an argument by calling someone a troll. If I knew where to find verification scores I would post them which would end this argument one way or the other. I honestly don't know if the nam is that terrible at this range, I'm only assuming that claim is a subjective bias. If you have the verification to prove otherwise, then post it and the matter will be settled. It's always terribLe. This isn't a weenie statement. It's often different from its last run starting at hr 6 or even 12...and it's almost always wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 And the UKMET has yet to come aboard the MECS/HECS/BECS Train for NYC.I think it still nails Long Island pretty good though. So the UKMET would be the outlier, not the Euro which is agreement with several other models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hey rjay getting pumped yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Interesting, my www.wunderground.com forecast shows 13-23 inches of snow falling from monday through late tuesday (I just realized their forecasts are actually based on TWC's. Used to be NWS I believe)......Anyway, i'm surprised to see TWC biting this hard already I watched some of heir coverage this afternoon and they were pretty bullish on heavy snow from Philly on northeast (they had a light/mod/heavy snow shading and most of NJ on NE were under the heavy snow shade). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 00z EPS are looking better than the 12z Just an absolute crush-job after 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 well 06z nam will sort it all out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 00z EPS are looking better than the 12z Just an absolute crush-job after 60 hours. Better than 12z good lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 anyone doing nam pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 anyone doing nam pbp? Hoping superstorm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 You can't just decide to end an argument by calling someone a troll. If I knew where to find verification scores I would post them which would end this argument one way or the other. I honestly don't know if the nam is that terrible at this range, I'm only assuming that claim is a subjective bias. If you have the verification to prove otherwise, then post it and the matter will be settled. I've been lurking these boards for like 14/15 years and I can tell you everyone bashes the NAM 25 hours a day/ 8 days a week. This model is butt ugly. Outside 36 hours they say it's utterly useless. Mets/amateurs/ weenies alike.in fact the only 1 thing pretty much everyone agrees on is that Low pressure spins counterclockwise and that the NAM stinks. I hope everyone gets nailed big time. Have a great night everyone! Sweet dreams. -Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'll do the NAM once I finish looking at the ensembles. I have to set up a bunch things up in preparation for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I watched some of heir coverage this afternoon and they were pretty bullish on heavy snow from Philly on northeast (they had a light/mod/heavy snow shading and most of NJ on NE were under the heavy snow shade). It's really nerve-racking, but our areas tend to do the best when the far western suburbs don't. Sure, there's storms that both camps can reap the rewards from, but usually our most dynamic storms with the most impressive inch per hour rates are those that are better along the coast and pushing NE......only thing is you ride the line. High bust potential. I remember December 2000.....Overperformer.....Though areas like West Milford got CRUSHED, just west of there the amounts dropped off very, very quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 00z Control run is west of the operational run. Another very intense solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'll do the NAM once I finish looking at the ensembles. I have to set up a bunch things up in preparation for tomorrow. When u get a sec if u wouldn't mind going into a little detail on the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 1.6"+ mean on the 12z EPS through 72 hours for NYC. I don't even have a clue what I'd forecast for a first call. I'm inclined to stay conservative, but its hard seeing the Euro suite glaring at me with over two feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 After the NAM I'm going to sleep. Gotta get some rest before the big tracking day begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hey rjay getting pumped yet? Been pumped since last night. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Euro ensembles mean 15"-20" or so for all of eastern NJ pretty much up and down to the coast across long island and into SE MA. Control run 20"+ for all, jackpot interior NNJ with 2 feet+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 In all honesty, like before the Boxing Day blizzard in throwing out the GFS, could be famous last words in downplaying the Euro. The Euro and it's ensembles agreeing are a huge confidence boost in a forecast. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Euro Ensembles held. Shows 15+ inches for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 So the UKMET would be the outlier, not the Euro which is agreement with several other models.. Exactly! But you only mentioned the NAM was in disagreement. I think the UKMET is an important model as far as verification scores go (I could be wrong though) But when you have the EURO, GFS, GGM plus ensembles, we're looking pretty darn good brother! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It's really nerve-racking, but our areas tend to do the best when the far western suburbs don't. Sure, there's storms that both camps can reap the rewards from, but usually our most dynamic storms with the most impressive inch per hour rates are those that are better along the coast and pushing NE......only thing is you ride the line. High bust potential. I remember December 2000.....Overperformer.....Though areas like West Milford got CRUSHED, just west of there the amounts dropped off very, very quickly Miller b rule 1 someone always gets screwed. I wouldn't be surprised to see the western cutoff tightened in future runs. Add a minor shift east and western nj could potentially become a screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Euro Ensembles held. Shows 15+ inches for the NYC area.Wow, just wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The individuals have a large spread at 60 hours that seems to consolidate by 66 hours over the BM as a sub 984 low. Entire state of NJ is above 1" with LI and the Jersey shore jackpotting with 1.8"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 00z Control run is west of the operational run. Another very intense solution. Fantastic news. Thanks for all the info you've been providing tonight superstorm....a real service to all. Starting to get excited we could have a storm in the class of 1996, PD2 and Boxing Day. I can't remember the euro showing snowfall amounts like this so close to the start of a storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 No major differences on the 6z NAM through 27 hours. Broad low taking shape over the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 AnY answer? I'm from Ohio so 8 don't really watch the coast much. Which are seems to be hit the hardest. I may drive over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 When is 6z Nam ..and what time 6z gfs Thered a pinned thread directed above this http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39231-forecast-model-information/#entry2659025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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