MJO812 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It's definitely not wetter and has shifted the 1" contour further east. Today will be full of nudges though it'll be interesting to see how that plays out. I would start off conservatively for the city and go from there. Slightly east which doesn't make a difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Becomes amateur hour in here late night people comparing the sref's (way out of range) the nam (way out of range) and even the rpm for god sakes vs the ggem the euro the gfs and gfs ensembles bunch op people need some time in the penalty box I made the RPM post in jest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Euro ensembles are an awesome hit, and the mean is around 15" or so with the 2ft+ amounts near Boston. obviously that is half of what the control run puts down. It is, in all ways, more realistic though 0z Ensembles are not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Becomes amateur hour in here late night people comparing the sref's (way out of range) the nam (way out of range) and even the rpm for god sakes vs the ggem the euro the gfs and gfs ensembles bunch op people need some time in the penalty box Honestly this is wishcasting. How can you say models specifically built for sub 84 hour forecasts are out of range at 48 hours? I love the euro, I really do, but god damn its so absurd its hard to believe with mesoscale support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It's definitely not wetter and has shifted the 1" contour further east. Today will be full of nudges though it'll be interesting to see how that plays out. I would start off conservatively for the city and go from there. I believe the 03z SREF is influenced by 00z nam data and that would explain the nudge east. The individuals will shed light. Either way 0.8 - 1.0 for NYC area. Not bad. ECM much more dependable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Ensembles not til around 3:15 am I believe. And really the only time to look at the sref's would be Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Honestly this is wishcasting. How can you say models specifically built for sub 84 hour forecasts are out of range at 48 hours? I love the euro, I really do, but god damn its so absurd its hard to believe with mesoscale support The SREFs are definitely out of range. The NAM, well it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 0z Ensembles are not out yet 3:30-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Need....sleep.....funny...we've gone full circle right up to a new NAM run in just a little over a half hour haha. The SREF's run off a series which INCLUDES the NAM, correct ? I could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 SREFs and NAM will always be similar, I'll take the globals and even the garbage GFS first, not because it shows snow, but because the euro by itself, has more than the fundong of the American trash combined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Slightly east which doesn't make a difference There's a consensus forming. The 12z euro is as far west as it could go but it's an outlier and majority models are a bit further east. I think a lot will depend on how intense the low becomes as they can sometimes tuck in closer to the coast. I would start the city off 8-12" and go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Honestly this is wishcasting. How can you say models specifically built for sub 84 hour forecasts are out of range at 48 hours? I love the euro, I really do, but god damn its so absurd its hard to believe with mesoscale support With all due respect the nam at 50 plus hours out is laughable maybe even beyond. Read more post none Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Need....sleep.....funny...we've gone full circle right up to a new NAM run in just a little over a half hour haha. The SREF's run off a series which INCLUDES the NAM, correct ? I could be wrong For PDII I went no sleep for at least 36 hours. Man up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 For PDII I went no sleep for at least 36 hours. Man up. Lol it's pretty difficult for me to get sleep when stuff like this is happening. My wife thinks i'm absolutely insane.....that's why she is a smart woman ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 With all due respect the nam at 50 plus hours out is laughable maybe even beyond. Read more post none its not though, its really not. Expectations may be set too high for it due its short range nature but its not that much worse than the globals within this range. Would you be singing the same tune if it was copycatting the euro atm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Jeez it's too late to dig up the verification scores but if you think the nam at 50 hours is in anywhere of the same universe as the euro ensemble, euro operational, ggem, gfs ensemble or even the gfs please share what you are smoking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 its not though, its really not. Expectations may be set too high for it due its short range nature but its not that much worse than the globals within this range. Would you be singing the same tune if it was copycatting the euro atm? Dude, honestly the NAM is not that good of a model. Comparing it to the Euro is..., well, it's not a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Lol it's pretty difficult for me to get sleep when stuff like this is happening. My wife thinks i'm absolutely insane.....that's why she is a smart woman ! I was in high school when PDII happened but I can definitely sympathize. My parents were asking me how I could possibly go outside when I hadn't slept in over a day, and shoveled the front of our house (admittedly with some help haha). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 There's a consensus forming. The 12z euro is as far west as it could go but it's an outlier and majority models are a bit further east. I think a lot will depend on how intense the low becomes as they can sometimes tuck in closer to the coast. I would start the city off 8-12" and go from there. Confused how the euro is being labeled an outlier when 3 other models showed the same trend. The only one that isn't on board with a western pattern is the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 its not though, its really not. Expectations may be set too high for it due its short range nature but its not that much worse than the globals within this range. Would you be singing the same tune if it was copycatting the euro atm? This statement is either blatant trolling or I don't know what please please stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 EURO is definitely an outlier and has been preforming terribly this season. Most models have NYC good for at least a foot which would not be a BECS or a HECS, but still a nice, tidy storm. I'm looking for a 24 hour range in which NYC can break 12" since 2010. I think this is the storm that will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Suddenly the negativity all but disappeared. No talk of NAO, MJO, PNA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 EURO is definitely an outlier and has been preforming terribly this season. Most models have NYC good for at least a foot which would not be a BECS or a HECS, but still a nice, tidy storm. I'm looking for a 24 hour range in which NYC can break 12" since 2010. I think this is the storm that will do it. The Euro has been performing terribly this season? That's news to me. And a 12+ inch storm is more than nice, it's freakin awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What appears to be bullseye? Me and my wifeelings are heading there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Image to save (actually been saving a few already)... I was in shock and silence for a good minute when I saw this image. Screams Feb 78. Amazing day, hopefully it continues into Sunday and Monday. If this verifies, we'll see it in future textbooks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 You can't just decide to end an argument by calling someone a troll. If I knew where to find verification scores I would post them which would end this argument one way or the other. I honestly don't know if the nam is that terrible at this range, I'm only assuming that claim is a subjective bias. If you have the verification to prove otherwise, then post it and the matter will be settled. The NAM is that terrible at this range, it has been known for years all over the weather community whether it's winter weather, severe weather, tropical weather, you name it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Confused how the euro is being labeled an outlier when 3 other models showed the same trend. The only one that isn't on board with a western pattern is the NAM. And the UKMET has yet to come aboard the MECS/HECS/BECS Train for NYC.I think it still nails Long Island pretty good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 EURO is definitely an outlier and has been preforming terribly this season. Most models have NYC good for at least a foot which would not be a BECS or a HECS, but still a nice, tidy storm. I'm looking for a 24 hour range in which NYC can break 12" since 2010. I think this is the storm that will do it. The Euro picked up on the further west/warmer solution for the previous storm before the other models did. Sure it wasn't a miller B but still... again since Sandy I think most on this board are in the "Euro is king" camp... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The Euro has been performing terribly this season? That's news to me. And a 12+ inch storm is more than nice, it's freakin awesome. Still confused how the euro is an outlier when the other models are showing the same trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Interesting, my www.wunderground.com forecast shows 13-23 inches of snow falling from monday through late tuesday (I just realized their forecasts are actually based on TWC's. Used to be NWS I believe)......Anyway, i'm surprised to see TWC biting this hard already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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