Jason215 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I know. I'll definitely be tuned to the webcams on Tuesday though. Long Beach is the best place to be during a blizzard-Boxing Day was amazing there even when the falling snow tapered off. Winds should easily gust to 60 and make for some 4-5 foot drifts easy. If anyone can get down to the Boardwalk I'd advise going for a nice Jebwalk. The forecast for Austin on Tuesday-sunny and 74 for the high. Yes a jebwalk is def in order! I prolly won't make it down to Long Beach, but just walking the neighborhood in a raging BLIZZARD would suffice. So we have close to a zero chance for mix? Even for the beaches and the twin forks? And btw, I think the proper way to spell the "b" word is that it should be in caps, lol. Especially when it's used to refer to one that's coming! I mean this with all sincerity, enjoy the great (boring @ss) weather in Austin! With the web cams, pics, and this site .. You'll be able to VPN into all the excitement. -Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What could have made the models overamped in the runs? I mean the pressure drops nearly 30mb in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 To be honest, we will see half of what the 00Z EURO is showing at the bullseye area. The EURO might have overdid it, but it can still be a full blown HECS. All the precip fields are just so tight its scary. I want this thing to happen as much as the next guy but we have to be honest that we're 50-100 miles away from a 3-6" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yes a jebwalk is def in order! I prolly won't make it down to Long Beach, but just walking the neighborhood in a raging BLIZZARD would suffice. So we have close to a zero chance for mix? Even for the beaches and the twin forks? And btw, I think the proper way to spell the "b" word is that it should be in caps, lol. Especially when it's used to refer to one that's coming! I mean this with all sincerity, enjoy the great (boring @ss) weather in Austin! With the web cams, pics, and this site .. You'll be able to VPN into all the excitement. -Jason Ehh, maybe I'll have a baseball-sized hail and EF4 tornado-packing supercell come through in April. Take that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I would wait to see what HM says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 All the precip fields are just so tight its scary. I want this thing to happen as much as the next guy but we have to be honest that we're 50-100 miles away from a 3-6" storm. It's okay to be cynical because the cutoffs are actually really close. If this were to shift some 50 miles east the totals would decrease dramatically and there's plenty of time for some adjustments. I still believe in our area LI is sitting pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 How about the cold thats coming through at least the first week of February??? Holy cow!!! No snow melt that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What could have made the models overamped in the runs? I mean the pressure drops nearly 30mb in 24 hours. It's about the energy hitting the Atlantic, negatively tilting and being able to spin a storm up. The pattern is temporarily made favorable by today's storm leaving the scene and hopefully the rest will soon be history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I would wait to see what HM says Shades of Boxing Day! DT made a post about this earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Back in March 2001 techonogly WAS way different with the models. Anyway, what happened march 2001? Also, remember that its january, I dont think u can really compare the two. Exactly. An iPhone 6 has more processing power than the supercomputers they used in 2001 to run the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJwx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 if euro verifies, can you imagine trying to drive on 195, the GSP,or Turnpike in NJ? Plows will be plowing other plows out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 RPM gives NYC about 8"...do TV mets hug the RPM too in NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 03z sref weakens the storm and shifts the precip shield east and really tightens up the spread. I mean **** I dont want this be to true but we can't just dismiss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 SREF now has the 1 inch contour past NYC. Way wetter than the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This will be a good indicator of what Mt.Holly will lean towards in their forecast when they update tonight. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html General mix between the 0z gfs and the 12zecm from yesterday. If 6z suites fall in line with 0z euro run I believe we'll see a more bullish approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Exactly. An iPhone 6 has more processing power than the supercomputers they used in 2001 to run the models. Is that true at all- i doubt that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Ehh, maybe I'll have a baseball-sized hail and EF4 tornado-packing supercell come through in April. Take that!! I've never seen a tornado, that would be pretty amazing brother! Ok gimme the BECS, and you get an F5, do we have a deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 03z sref weakens the storm and shifts the precip shield east and really tightens up the spread. I mean **** I dont want this be to true but we can't just dismiss itThe trend's your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 SREF now has the 1 inch contour past NYC. Way wetter than the last run. I think youre mixing it up with the 21z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 First I hear 03z SREF Weakens the storm, then I hear 1 inch contour past NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 03z sref weakens the storm and shifts the precip shield east and really tightens up the spread. I mean **** I dont want this be to true but we can't just dismiss it Looks good to me. Wetter than 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 WPC bashes the ECMWF again: CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM CROSSING THE EAST COAST SUN NIGHT ANDSTRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW OFF OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUE~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 00Z GFS / 00Z ECMWF THROUGH 12Z/27 BLEND OF 00Z GFS / 12Z EC MEAN BETWEEN 12Z/27-12Z/28CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGETHERE HAS BEEN A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE SINCE YESTERDAY TOBE CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST COAST TUE MORNING REGARDING A SURFACELOW...PARTIALLY DUE TO A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINSAND DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH SHARPER AND WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS.TAKING A LOOK AT 12Z/27...F060 HRS...THE LATEST ENSEMBLEDISTRIBUTION OF SURFACE LOWS FROM 12Z/24 SHOWS THE ECMWF MEMBERSSTRONGLY CLUSTERED TO THE WEST OF THE RELATIVELY WELL CLUSTEREDGEFS WHILE CMC MEMBERS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS BOTH REGIONS. SUBTLERUN TO RUN CHANGES TRANSLATE INTO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DIFFERENCESACROSS NEW ENGLAND.THE CURRENT THINKING IS CLOSE TO WPC CONTINUITY BUT ADJUSTED FORTHE LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF CLOSE TOWHAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL ROUGHLY 12Z/27...AT WHICH POINTTHE 00Z ECMWF STARTS TO STRAY FROM THE PACK IN HOLDING THE SURFACELOW MORE SOUTH WHILE BETTER ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING AND THE LATESTMEANS LIE TO THE NORTH. THIS PREFERENCE REFLECTS MODEL TRENDS ANDIS AWAY FROM THE EDGES OF THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING. HOWEVER...POORRUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND ABOVE AVERAGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD LOWERSCONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST.www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...OTTO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 weatherweather what in the world are you talking about. It looks wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looks good to me. Wetter than 21z. no way, 21z had the 1" covering the top half of new jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 03z sref weakens the storm and shifts the precip shield east and really tightens up the spread. I mean **** I dont want this be to true but we can't just dismiss it Again, storms like this always have a very tight gradient. There won't be the gradual decrease in precip west like previous model runs had. It will almost certainly be a blizzard in one place and 50 miles west flurries. Huge lift over where it's snowing=sinking air west of the snow shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 We're close enough in now that this should be a real trend. March 2001 was supposed to be huge 3-5 days out and then the storm decided to blow up too late and nail only New England and eastern LI. DT is absolutely right about Manitoba Maulers being dangerous when they can get trapped over the Atlantic near the New England/NJ coast. Some of the worst blizzards in our history have come from those events-Maulers have tons of energy and when they meet up with the Atlantic and can cut off, watch the fook out. I agree the models are better now, but most mets were still touting 1-2 feet of snow as late as 12 hours before the storm was slated to start. Huge bust. That was the storm during which I started communicating with Craig Allen by email (and we continue to do so today once in awhile - he's a very nice, helpful guy). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 no way, 21z had the 1" covering the top half of new jersey You are right but this run is still great. It's the SREF so no point in discussing it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 no way, 21z had the 1" covering the top half of new jersey Looks to me a little bit NE of where the last run had the 1" contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It's definitely not wetter and has shifted the 1" contour further east. Today will be full of nudges though it'll be interesting to see how that plays out. I would start off conservatively for the city and go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Becomes amateur hour in here late night people comparing the sref's (way out of range) the nam (way out of range) and even the rpm for god sakes vs the ggem the euro the gfs and gfs ensembles bunch op people need some time in the penalty box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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