cjr231 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What is NYC looking at wind wise? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Better find a place to put your 30 because you may be shoveling again on Friday and Saturday. Jm how in gods name do you pick this year to move to Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Euro has another snowstorm at 144 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Euro gives the area an encore performance by Friday/Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Back in March 2001 techonogly WAS way different with the models. Anyway, what happened march 2001? Also, remember that its january, I dont think u can really compare the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Is it wrong of me to be excited but slightly worried we're going to see another March '01 with this storm? Forecasts were just as high this far out. I'm excited, but nervous that the storm may underperform like March 01. Models weren't nearly as good 14 years ago... and this is a different system. I'm still not sold on my area (West NJ) just yet but for you guys NYC on NE this seems like it's almost a lock you get at least a foot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm worried as well. Best to remind us that we just do not see 30-40". Could it happen? Yes. Odds? Well tomorrow we'd be better off tracking UFOs. This run actually made me even more anxious than if it DID NOT show a big hit....geez.... Yeah. It could happen, but it's a bit nerve-wracking seeing it especially since the last time we had the models pointing out 30-40" snowfall we got a bust with March 01. It could happen, but I need to see the models showing consistent runs until HRRR confirms it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I never though that with what this model is putting out would get me this high! Cheers to the BLIZZARD! Regarding flying out here to catch this? Don't do it. You're in a new job and need to hit the ball outta the park. Just plan a nice ski trip to Kirkwood CA or Alta/Snowbird UT in the right pattern and get your feet of snow! I know there's nothing quite like having a BLIZZARD at home in the CP. -Jason I know. I'll definitely be tuned to the webcams on Tuesday though. Long Beach is the best place to be during a blizzard-Boxing Day was amazing there even when the falling snow tapered off. Winds should easily gust to 60 and make for some 4-5 foot drifts easy. If anyone can get down to the Boardwalk I'd advise going for a nice Jebwalk. The forecast for Austin on Tuesday-sunny and 74 for the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Whats great about this pattern that is starting to take shape is that mixing issues will not be the primary concern. Cold+Stormy=Epic pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 BECS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I know. I'll definitely be tuned to the webcams on Tuesday though. Long Beach is the best place to be during a blizzard-Boxing Day was amazing there even when the falling snow tapered off. Winds should easily gust to 60 and make for some 4-5 foot drifts easy. If anyone can get down to the Boardwalk I'd advise going for a nice Jebwalk. The forecast for Austin on Tuesday-sunny and 74 for the high. I might be working down there Monday night. I'll see if I can get some video of East Park and Long Beach after I close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Tony, I have 2.70" for NYC on the NAM (I meant Euro, which seems to be impersonating some of the crazy NAM runs of the past). Thanks, Don. Perhaps some more history in the making. Been a lot of that lately, so this isn't completely shocking. Does this buck the historical tendencies of the indices, time (48 hours) will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 whos ready? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah. It could happen, but it's a bit nerve-wracking seeing it especially since the last time we had the models pointing out 30-40" snowfall we got a bust with March 01. It could happen, but I need to see the models showing consistent runs until HRRR confirms it. We're close enough in now that this should be a real trend. March 2001 was supposed to be huge 3-5 days out and then the storm decided to blow up too late and nail only New England and eastern LI. DT is absolutely right about Manitoba Maulers being dangerous when they can get trapped over the Atlantic near the New England/NJ coast. Some of the worst blizzards in our history have come from those events-Maulers have tons of energy and when they meet up with the Atlantic and can cut off, watch the fook out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Sandy was also an unlikely event which the euro showed. 30-40 is hard to come by but not impossible so let's just keep dreaming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm crying. I don't know why. But. I am. I have no words. I just... I can't even. Lolololololill!!!! Not sure you've seen this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Calm down weenies there's still a few runs to go. You can't lock in anything yet and if you take the consensus it's probably like 1.25" of liquid equivalent which is a MECS at least. I'm not buying the extreme totals yet unless the other models tick upward and the Euro at least holds for another 24 hrs or two runs. Better to be safe than sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 If that run were to verify someone will have 10 or 12 foot drifts of snow. People will be trapped in their homes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Calm down weenies there's still a few runs to go. You can't lock in anything yet and if you take the consensus it's probably like 1.25" of liquid equivalent which is a MECS at least. I'm not buying the extreme totals yet unless the other models tick upward and the Euro at least holds for another 24 hrs. Better to be safe than sorry. Who is locking in? GGEM is quite similiar to the Euro. GFS gave us 15 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Thanks, Don. Perhaps some more history in the making. Been a lot of that lately, so this isn't completely shocking. Does this buck the historical tendencies of the indices, time (48 hours) will tell. Perhaps, but the AO could be diving by the storm's onset if some of the guidance is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 1/25 00Z Summary NYC QPF (Snowfall) SREF: 1.25 - 1.50 (>12") NAM: 0.15 - 0.25 (>2") GFS: 1.10 - 1.25 (>15") GGEM: 1.75 - 2.00 (>20") GEFS: 1.20 - 1.50 (>15") UKMET : 040 - 0.60 (>5") ECM: 2.50 - 2.70 (GULP >25") Updated based on Don's numbers and PB for the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayson Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What's the latest timing of this event? What time do flakes start to fall on Mon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Pity your fallen comrades in dc, we will have to watch in envy as we get an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Timing would be Monday afternoon start time / peak tue morning into afternoon. Ends overnight tue into wed or later wed if stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I just set up a conference call in my company (I work for a private jet company) the same time the EURO was coming out and they couldn't understand my excitement when I relayed them what the latest run was. Looks like I'm going to be busy for the next couple of days, haha! My only question right now since I haven't paid attention to this since Thursday, is that what spurred the big change in the last 24 hours? I thought with the shortwave digging farther south that it was just going to scoot OTS? Was it the Saturday storm that caused all these changes? I'll take a stab at answering this. The storm that just went through you guys effected our weather out here. A couple of days ago the clipper was forecast to go thru Northern MN/WI. That didn't happen because it could not break down the air mas between here and the east coast. Therefore the clipper was forced to drop further south and west of MSP. Since it is taking a further south path it didn't take a turn to the east until it was way south of us. It actually looks now like it will head to the Caroline coast and be picked by the gulf stream. This surprise was born by the models not handling the air mas between us and the US eastern coast correctly. When this type of thing happens look to your west to find the error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 There''s too much positivity in this thread, we need some cynics. Considering climo even if every model was showing a 2 foot storm 48 hours out Id still hold it at less than 20% chance. Esp since this is a Miller B and entirely dependent on the storm blowing up quickly and in the right spot. The fact that we have the nam absolutely buttholling this area makes me want to reduce that probability to 5-10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I remember when you got over 30". I don't pity you Pity your fallen comrades in dc, we will have to watch in envy as we get an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 There''s too much positivity in this thread, we need some cynics. Considering climo even if every model was showing a 2 foot storm 48 hours out Id still hold it at less than 20% chance. The fact that we have the nam absolutely buttholling this area makes me want to reduce that probability to 5-10%. To be honest, we will see half of what the 00Z EURO is showing at the bullseye area. The EURO might have overdid it, but it can still be a full blown HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 BECS.... BECS.png I wish DC was in on the action, but enjoy it! Cherish the memories, this is a once in a generation event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Pity your fallen comrades in dc, we will have to watch in envy as we get an inch. This isn't DC's kind of storm, PDII and 2/6/10 are your storms. Miller B offshore blowups have never worked out for you guys. Watch the webcams like I'll have to and live vicariously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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