IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The 18z GFS is more amped up lol. These models are all over the place. Very little run to run continuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It looks just like the NAM at 84hrs at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Bombs away CNJ after this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Another high end advisory event to low end warning event verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Another high end advisory event to low end warning event verbatim 6 PLUS .With room to amplify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Another high end advisory event to low end warning event verbatim Another? Are you sure we're getting that this go around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Still snowing at 102 . Slow mover because of what`s comes through Sat . 4 days out , File it . Come back in 2 . We are not running the table like last year . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Still snowing at 102 . Slow mover because of what`s comes through Sat . 4 days out , File it . Come back in 2 . We are not running the table like last year . Your posts become more enigmatic with every disappointment this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Your posts become more enigmatic with every disappointment this winter. Since I HAVE ACED THE COLD ALL YEAR I have no disappointments . When are you going to take a stand ? When are you going to contribute here ? When are you going to make a forecast ? The post was clear , " THE MODEL " shows its a slow mover . My opinion is since we haven't really run the table ( not sure if you even understand that analogy ) I would be inclined to wait a few days before ringing alarm bells . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I think this Gfs run is the best this thing could become and again it fits the pattern where moderate storms dominate. This run is plenty cold and would be a low warning event. I don't think this has a lot of room to amplify because the pattern is constantly in motion and there's no time for it to do so. If we were in a blocking pattern I could see this becoming a KU but alas we're not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 My opinion is since we haven't really run the table ( not sure if you even understand that analogy ) I would be inclined to wait a few days before ringing alarm bells . Or uncorking the champagne, which is what happened in the other thread for Saturday's storm. Until Saturday night, Monday's storm is all academic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Since I HAVE ACED THE COLD ALL YEAR I have no disappointments . When are you going to take a stand ? When are you going to contribute here ? When are you going to make a forecast ? The post was clear , " THE MODEL " shows its a slow mover . My opinion is since we haven't really run the table ( not sure if you even understand that analogy ) I would be inclined to wait a few days before ringing alarm bells . I know what run the table means, I just don't understand the context here. If I were to issue a snowfall forecast, right now the 1st event looks like a 2-4" deal S to N. The second event I won't throw out exact numbers, but the setup looks better than anything I've seen thusfar this winter. Fresh cold for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Upton says GFS has snow mon morning changing to a mix mon afternoon than back to snow mon night!! I believe that was based on the 12z run. The 18z run is colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I know what run the table means, I just don't understand the context here. If I were to issue a snowfall forecast, right now the 1st event looks like a 2-4" deal S to N. The second event I won't throw out exact numbers, but the setup looks better than anything I've seen thusfar this winter. Fresh cold for once. The context is because all we have seen this winter is the models back off favorable solutions as we get closer . So I say file it , and come back in 2 days ( not literally ) . So yes that's a deep trough and deep negatives with a max coming through should spin a nice SW up . The Euro does not see it, I am not sure if it`s because it struggles in the N branch or its right . So I am just posting the maps and being cautious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Ok that makes more sense. Thanks Don s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I believe that was based on the 12z run. The 18z run is colder. As of 4:30, they have us at snow throughout the day. But they also had us an 80% chance of snow all last night when not a flake fell. It's way too far out to really take what any forecasting agency says seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 As of 4:30, they have us at snow throughout the day. But they also had us an 80% chance of snow all last night when not a flake fell. It's way too far out to really take what any forecasting agency says seriously. So says me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 As of 4:30, they have us at snow throughout the day. But they also had us an 80% chance of snow all last night when not a flake fell. It's way too far out to really take what any forecasting agency says seriously. I agree. One should be careful about details especially with the kind of system that might or might not be in play on Monday. It's a clipper-type system dropping down from Manitoba. If there were blocking, one might be talking about the possibility of a major snowstorm or even blizzard as it reaches the coast and then deepens rapidly off the Delmarva. There won't be blocking this time around, but the system is much more energetic than the clipper that just sailed through the area. That, alone, might mean a higher probability of seeing snowfall if it takes the track that is currently modeled. There is a chance that it rapidly redevelops upon reaching the Atlantic and a period of moderate or heavy snow develops, but on account of the absence of blocking, it takes a wide swing upon exiting the coast. The result would be a short-lived period of such snowfall, but with much better amounts than what recently occurred (perhaps widespread amounts in the 2"-4"/3"-6" range under that scenario, as ratios will also be higher than 10:1).. Parts of Long Island and the Cape might do best under such a scenario with Atlantic Canada possibly seeing a blizzard afterward. Right now, this is too speculative. Let's see what other guidance shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 As of 4:30, they have us at snow throughout the day. But they also had us an 80% chance of snow all last night when not a flake fell. It's way too far out to really take what any forecasting agency says seriously. I really couldn't agree more. This does however have the best chance to produce a real nice snow event for the coast. For once we are talking a pure snow event with cold air available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I agree. One should be careful about details especially with the kind of system that might or might not be in play on Monday. It's a clipper-type system dropping down from Manitoba. If there were blocking, one might be talking about the possibility of a major snowstorm or even blizzard as it reaches the coast and then deepens rapidly off the Delmarva. There won't be blocking this time around, but the system is much more energetic than the clipper that just sailed through the area. That, alone, might mean a higher probability of seeing snowfall if it takes the track that is currently modeled. There is a chance that it rapidly redevelops upon reaching the Atlantic and a period of moderate or heavy snow develops, but on account of the absence of blocking, it takes a wide swing upon exiting the coast. The result would be a short-lived period of such snowfall, but with much better amounts than what recently occurred (perhaps widespread amounts in the 2"-4"/3"-6" range under that scenario, as ratios will also be higher than 10:1).. Parts of Long Island and the Cape might do best under such a scenario with Atlantic Canada possibly seeing a blizzard afterward. Right now, this is too speculative. Let's see what other guidance shows. Great analysis, good thoughts. I definitely think this Manitoba Mauler will outperform the Saturday storm. I think if everything goes right it COULD drop 4-8" for areas near the coast as it redevelops due to ratios. I think a widespread 2-4" is a good call for now but it definitely possess the possibility for more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Great analysis, good thoughts. I definitely think this Manitoba Mauler will outperform the Saturday storm. Sadly, it seems that won't take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The euro sucks on Miller B storms.Its one the last model to pick up on this. It amazes me how people dont rember this? I guess because its been so long since we had a chance to track one this winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 T - You are lucky I thought that was ur call for Sat . OK that`s ur call for Monday KOOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 UPTON NOT A BIG FAN A SHORTWAVE TRACKS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHTAND MONDAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH. QUESTIONS ARISEWITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW...STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF THISUPPER SHORTWAVE...WITH GFS QUITE ROBUST WITH THE STRENGTH OF THISOVERALL SYSTEM. LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION IS WEAKER ALOFT...ANDSFC LOW IS SUPPRESSED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY.INITIALLY PLENTY OF COLD AIR IS IN PLACE. AS SUCH...ANYPRECIPITATION THAT WE DO OBSERVE SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OFSNOW. HOWEVER...SOME WARM AIR COULD ADVECT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAYMONDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX...AGAIN IF GFS IS CORRECT.ECMWF THOUGH WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP REMAINSJUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.ANY WINTRY MIX CHANGES BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING MONDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The GFS also thought the clipper would have rain 3 days out and even ACY ended up mostly snow, it stinks in the boundary layer at that range, I have no concern with that air mass of seeing rain with either the GFS or Euro setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 UPTON NOT A BIG FAN A SHORTWAVE TRACKS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH. QUESTIONS ARISE WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW...STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE...WITH GFS QUITE ROBUST WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS OVERALL SYSTEM. LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION IS WEAKER ALOFT...AND SFC LOW IS SUPPRESSED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY. INITIALLY PLENTY OF COLD AIR IS IN PLACE. AS SUCH...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT WE DO OBSERVE SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...SOME WARM AIR COULD ADVECT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX...AGAIN IF GFS IS CORRECT. ECMWF THOUGH WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANY WINTRY MIX CHANGES BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING MONDAY NIGHT. Get the blowers ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM is way south now at 84, we probably lose the GFS at 00Z most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM is way south now at 84, we probably lose the GFS at 00Z most likely.and so we go from to potential biggies to a small event and a non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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