Jason215 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Honestly, I won't be sold on more than 8-12 inches for my area until the Monday 12z run shows it. Gotcha! I know getting burned is not cool! Pardon the pun, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What time does the euro come out again? So many models one quickly forgets there times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 UKMET is 10MM - 15MM (0.40 - 0.60) for nyc with a lot more in LI over 1.00+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 safe to say likely eastern Suffolk is locked as well unless major change I'd say from the William Floyd on east looks pretty good as of now (maybe the Sagtikos-that's where a lot of these Long Island only events set up, such as March 2001). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'd be a lot more excited if the Euro and ensembles followed up with another mega hit on this run (and I don't even live on LI anymore!!). Sometimes the Euro can have a hiccup run but if it follows up with a similar solution, it's very likely onto something, especially when we're so close in. It put 36" of snow into Trenton last run for crying out loud. Let's not forget the euro brought this storm back during last nights 00z, today's 12z was its second consecutive run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What time does the euro come out again? So many models one quickly forgets there times Starts in 10-15 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'd be a lot more excited if the Euro and ensembles followed up with another mega hit on this run (and I don't even live on LI anymore!!). Sometimes the Euro can have a hiccup run but if it follows up with a similar solution, it's very likely onto something, especially when we're so close in. It put 36" of snow into Trenton last run for crying out loud. I don't even know if the 00z ECMWF can replicate what it had last run. It was just absolutely obscene with a 100 knot 850mb jet screaming into Long Island with a fire hydrant of moisture streaming directly into our sub-forum. At this point, I'd be happy to see it look a little better than the 00z GFS just so we can lock things down and start to issue Winter Storm Watches and some Blizzard Watches for the eastern burbs. 15:1 ratios and 1.2" of QPF is something that I'll never complain about, especially during this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAVGEM is nothing for us....big miss east....eastern LI/SNE get hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What time does the euro come out again? So many models one quickly forgets there timesEuro should start coming out in about 20 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What time does the euro come out again? So many models one quickly forgets there times it starts around 12:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAVGEM is nothing for us....big miss east....eastern LI/SNE get hit It's been there now 3-4 runs in a row, that's typical once close in, it's usually flatter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 UKMET is 10MM - 15MM (0.40 - 0.60) for nyc with a lot more in LI over 1.00+ Probably the one foot line starts on the Nassau/Queens border, east of the William Floyd is easily 18-24". Temp profiles support over 10:1 ratios, but high wind can cut down on ratios somewhat. 12 or 15:1 are probably the best bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Woah woah, let's wait for the Euro to come out.As much as I agree I think this smells big time. As others have said we will finally have good ratios and a shot at all snow at the coast. I would put chances of 20"+ somewhere in this forum at at least 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 UKMET is 10MM - 15MM (0.40 - 0.60) for nyc with a lot more in LI over 1.00+ Is that a shift west or east from its previous run? Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Is that a shift west or east from its previous run? Thank you. I don't think the CCB budged one bit, what did change was there was more initial WAA type snow ahead of the main low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Is that a shift west or east from its previous run? Thank you. West, and I think fairly significantly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think it's best we at least TRY to keep ourselves calm (tough for me to do) and exercise caution.....assuming most models do come to a consensus (which they have not yet.....they seem to be all or nothing.....with certain major models not looking too impressive) of 12-20" or so for all of us.....any slight shift or later development and shift just 25-50 miles E/NE with the heavy snow band could easily result in NJ/NYC being brought down to 3-6" or so.....Mostly all of SNE I would say is "secure" right now.....I know it's easy to get caught up in it, however, even some of the best mets in their discussions cannot deny that this is the type of system that will rob some area bigtime (in other words showing 12"+ 48 hours before the storm, just to bring it down to a much lesser snow event. We've seen it happen before when we're on the edge of a MAJOR snow event.....just outside of that band is a significant snow event that someone will get left with....CHEERS to all and lets get that Euro going Yes "TRY" is the operative word. I think I got sucked in with today's 12Z EURO. I gotta admit, I love the enthusiasm on this board with the "mother of G-d" posts, etc. It's amazing how we almost get a blizzard every year now. Where was all this snow when I was growing up? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 omg @ all the viewers this late at night.you guys in 'the city' have fun watching this one.ECM drum roll.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The GEFS is 1.5. The GGEM is 2.5 if the EURO goes back to its 2 plus like it did at 12z just throw the other modeling in the garbage They are just noise. You could be looking at a record setting storm at KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Is that a shift west or east from its previous run? Thank you. a bit west of old (sat 1/24 12z) run. uk tendency is east with coastals http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_qc_12/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Anyone volunteering to do a PBP for the 00z ECMWF? Preferably someone who wont care that one hundred plus strung-out weather junkies are watching the entire thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Dr. No initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I don't think the CCB budged one bit, what did change was there was more initial WAA type snow ahead of the main lowThank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The GEFS is 1.5. The GGEM is 2.5 if the EURO goes back to its 2 plus like it did at 12z just throw the other modeling in the garbage They are just noise. You could be looking at a record setting storm at KNYC Ehh, 26.9" at Central Park with the zookeeper is a really tough hill to climb. You guys have to keep expectations in check until the storm's actually here. Boxing Day and Feb 2006 were supposed to have their heaviest totals over Long Island and New England even the day of the storms, but ended up having best totals well west of there, and places that were supposed to jackpot got dryslotted. Lots and lots of intracacies to be worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 a bit west of old (sat 1/24 12z) run. uk tendency is east with coastals http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_qc_12/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif That's good ... Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Ok lets rehash what happened in the last 24 hours... yesterday's 00z UKMET and Euro were the first indicators that something was afoot. This occurred pretty much when the North American radiosonde network was properly sampling the leading shortwave. This feature is now in the process of droping into the central US. The second shortwave is now making landfall along the west coast of British Columbia. This feature will probably be better sampled by the 12z observations. This feature is important because the degree of phasing between this shortwave and the primary shortwave digging into the eastern US will govern the explosive cyclogenesis now forecast to occur. How well this second feature is sample the next 24 hours is important. Its likely that a lot of this remaining forecast uncertainty (which seems to be confirmed by the spread in the deterministic guidance and EC ensembles) is likely coming from this second piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 West, and I think fairly significantly so. Thanx man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Ehh, 26.9" at Central Park with the zookeeper is a really tough hill to climb. You guys have to keep expectations in check until the storm's actually here. Boxing Day and Feb 2006 were supposed to have their heaviest totals over Long Island and New England even the day of the storms, but ended up having best totals well west of there, and places that were supposed to jackpot got dryslotted. Lots and lots of intracacies to be worked out. When you start spitting out 1.5 to 2.5 at 12 to 1 its in sight . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Would be nice if we had just one person doing pbp, if at all possible. I know people are on tenterhooks, but lots of spurious, "it's east" and "storm cancel" posts are annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'd be a lot more excited if the Euro and ensembles followed up with another mega hit on this run (and I don't even live on LI anymore!!). Sometimes the Euro can have a hiccup run but if it follows up with a similar solution, it's very likely onto something, especially when we're so close in. It put 36" of snow into Trenton last run for crying out loud. True, but it's not like the EURO is on it's own. When the GFS and GGM have also followed suit. We will know soon enough. I didn't want to stay up for the EURO, but might as well at this point! This hobby umm I mean addiction is just not good for my sleep schedule. I'm sure TX has other great things going for it although snow isn't one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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