NYC Weather Lover Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 For those wanting to see the GGEM, here's the free link that I use: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 LOL-maybe we were all just NAM'd right now with the way the globals seem to be going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GGEM QPF totals -- 1.50 - 1.75"+ central and northern NJ, 2"+ for the city, as high as 3 as u go east to LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 1.75" for the city http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchaser20079/2014-2015%20Winter/ScreenHunter_120%20Jan.%2024%2023.37_1.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GGEM QPF totals -- 1.50 - 1.75"+ central and northern NJ, 2"+ for the city and up to 3" as you go east to LI.Ratios are around 15/17:1.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 1/25 00Z Summary NYC QPF (Snowfall) SREF: 1.25 - 1.50 (>12") NAM: 0.15 - 0.25 (>2") GFS: 1.10 - 1.25 (>15") GGEM: 1.75 - 2.00 (>20') Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Ratios are around 15/17:1.... GGEM just painted one for the record books lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 My lord.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This looks like another epic 20" situation. With more to come late week and all of the snowiest month of the year to go this winter can still shoot for an A. We are going to have glacier type snow pack which will lower temps on it's own moving forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The UKMET is still 60-80 miles east of where many would want it, but its better than 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This will be crippling to the NE if this materializes. Short lay over from the last storm, it seems this came out of no where. Warnings should be issued very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This looks like another epic 20" situation. With more to come late week and all of the snowiest month of the year to go this winter can still shoot for an A. We are going to have glacier type snow pack which will lower temps on it's own moving forward Woah woah, let's wait for the Euro to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 FOR ME,EASTERN LONG island, lack of snow up to now,and basically all of long island will likely be quickly erased and we well be in a good snow range for season! and more storms to freaking come Omfg the beast of winter has finally awoken .... In other news blizzard party in orient,ny EASTERN most part of long island minus Montauk lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 1/25 00Z Summary NYC QPF (Snowfall) SREF: 1.25 - 1.50 (>12") NAM: 0.15 - 0.25 (>2") GFS: 1.10 - 1.25 (>15") GGEM: 1.75 - 2.00 (>20") GEFS: 1.00 - 1.25 (>15") UKMET : 040 - 0.60 (>5") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Let's hold off on the celebrations just yet. The storm went from OTS to MECS in a day. We've got one model that has 20" solutions. If the Euro is similar we've got something to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwDvF0NtgdU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Let's hold off on the celebrations just yet. The storm went from OTS to MECS in a day. We've got one model that has 20" solutions. If the Euro is similar we've got something to talk about. It's gonna be 15:1 ratios if not higher, look at the qpf outputs, we have 5 major models that show 20+ in many areas lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Things are looking very interesting, I officially mention in my official forceast that there is a possibility of a historic storm. I am waiting to see what the computer models say tomorrow before I go "all in". I did not like the NAM run, to me it was odd, it went crazy @12Z than dropped it, like the GFS got I hope that NCEP upgrades it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Things are looking very interesting, I officially mention in my official forceast that there is a possibility of a historic storm. I am waiting to see what the computer models say tomorrow before I go "all in". I did not like the NAM run, to me it was odd, it went crazy @12Z than dropped it, like the GFS got I hope that NCEP upgrades it. The NAM should pretty much never be looked at outside of 36 hrs. It has prettier graphics than the other models so I guess it makes for better eye candy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 So "IF" tonight's EURO show the mega hit, is a 1ft - 2ft Blizzard a lock for NYC/LI or do we wait until the 12Z suite? Someone said the GGM had up to 3" of QPF on E-LI with 15:1 ratios, that's 45 inches of snow, imagine if that actually verified? Lol -Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It use to be 60 then 48 now it's 36 something is wrong. I remember one forecast last winter when the 72 hour panel had about 18" of snow for NYC only to slowly decrees it towards the other models solution of none, by its 36 hrs out run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 So "IF" tonight's EURO show the mega hit, is a 1ft - 2ft Blizzard a lock for NYC/LI or do we wait until the 12Z suite? Someone said the GGM had up to 3" of QPF on E-LI with 15:1 ratios, that's 45 inches of snow, imagine if that actually verified? Lol -Jason Euro run would be encouraging however the UKMET being east prevents this from being a lock until 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 So "IF" tonight's EURO show the mega hit, is a 1ft - 2ft Blizzard a lock for NYC/LI or do we wait until the 12Z suite? Someone said the GGM had up to 3" of QPF on E-LI with 15:1 ratios, that's 45 inches of snow, imagine if that actually verified? Lol -Jason Honestly, I won't be sold on more than 8-12 inches for my area until the Monday 12z run shows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Good point! Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think it's best we at least TRY to keep ourselves calm (tough for me to do) and exercise caution.....assuming most models do come to a consensus (which they have not yet.....they seem to be all or nothing.....with certain major models not looking too impressive) of 12-20" or so for all of us.....any slight shift or later development and shift just 25-50 miles E/NE with the heavy snow band could easily result in NJ/NYC being brought down to 3-6" or so.....Mostly all of SNE I would say is "secure" right now.....I know it's easy to get caught up in it, however, even some of the best mets in their discussions cannot deny that this is the type of system that will rob some area bigtime (in other words showing 12"+ 48 hours before the storm, just to bring it down to a much lesser snow event. We've seen it happen before when we're on the edge of a MAJOR snow event.....just outside of that band is a significant snow event that someone will get left with....CHEERS to all and lets get that Euro going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm guessing some may exceed 15:1 ratios, Monday overnight into Tuesday looks to produce very cold 850's and possibly 20:1 or higher, would anyone please confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 So "IF" tonight's EURO show the mega hit, is a 1ft - 2ft Blizzard a lock for NYC/LI or do we wait until the 12Z suite? Someone said the GGM had up to 3" of QPF on E-LI with 15:1 ratios, that's 45 inches of snow, imagine if that actually verified? Lol -Jason I'd be a lot more excited if the Euro and ensembles followed up with another mega hit on this run (and I don't even live on LI anymore!!). Sometimes the Euro can have a hiccup run but if it follows up with a similar solution, it's very likely onto something, especially when we're so close in. It put 36" of snow into Trenton last run for crying out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 safe to say likely eastern Suffolk is locked as well unless major change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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