NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Allsnow easy on the posts. Forum's still glitchy as hell so not really his fault... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Allsnow easy on the posts. Forum's still glitchy as hell so not really his fault... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Wow hr54 984 se of long Island. Mod to heavy snow for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Forum's still glitchy as hell so not really his fault...It's fine and I know there're still issues from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Upton 10 pm update&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- NOTE ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS FOR STORM SYSTEM MONDAY-TUESDAY. THE 18Z AND 00Z NAM HAVE MOVED TO A TRACK/IMPACT SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS...WITH MOST OF THE IMPACT E OF THE CT/NY STATE LINE. THE 18Z GFS THOUGH HAS A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE 12Z ECMWF/CMC-GLOBAL/NAM WITH A POTENTIALLY POTENT STORM IMPACTING THE ENTIRE CWA. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING...WHICH FOLLOWS BELOW...BASED ON THESE TRENDS. MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER NW REGARDING A STORM THAT IS PROGGED TO EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING MONDAY. AS THE STORM HEADS TO THE NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES STRONGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED BEFORE A 500 MB LOW CLOSES SOUTH OF US AT SOME POINT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD DRAW THE STORM CLOSER TOWARDS IT...EFFECTIVELY SLOWING DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE NE IN SPITE OF A BLOCKING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVING AWAY. HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF AND DEEPENING OF THE STORM...MESOSCALE BANDING BECOMES MORE LIKELY AS WELL...BUT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE WHERE IT WOULD SET UP. BUT BASED THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEFORMATION THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING...BANDED PRECIPITATION WOULD MOVE AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA...PERHAPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS LIKE TO BE ALL SNOW. RIGHT NOW ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THIS SYSTEM AND CAUSES MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES FOR EASTERN SECTIONS. SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE THE NW TREND OF THE STORM`S TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES COULD BE A BIGGER CONCERN. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT A COLD AIR MASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING THROUGH SE CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PROMOTING PRECIPITATION TYPE OF SNOW. DID NOT WANT TO TREND UPWARD TOO MUCH REGARDING POPS AND TOO HIGH WITH QPF/SNOW TOTALS AT THIS POINT AS LIKELY POPS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST UNTIL THE 5TH PERIOD...BUT WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO RFC AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FROM THE HIGH QPF OUTPUT FROM ECMWF AND NAM...AND THE OTHER MODELS THAT DO NOT SHOW AS MUCH. BUT BASED ON THE NW TREND OF THE STORM...DID MAKE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY WEST OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. FORECAST WINDS DURING THIS STORM COULD BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW...THINKING IS THAT EASTERN AND OTHER COASTAL SECTIONS HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. TOO EARLY FOR ANY HEADLINES REGARDING THE SNOW AND WIND POTENTIAL...BUT WILL ADDRESS AT LEAST THE SNOW ASPECT IN THE HWO AS WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA IS INCREASING IN LIKELIHOOD. BEHIND THE STORM...DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A WEAKER LOW AFFECTS US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CAPPED POPS A CHANCE FOR SNOW...WITH PRECIPITATION MORE LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT MIXED PRECIPITATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. -- End Changed Discussion -- Only the first paragraph is new (bolded part) - the rest was in the 4 pm update.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Fox 5 on board but no snow totals. Glad there not writing anything off like this past storm, being slightly under forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Fox 5 on board but no snow totals. Glad there not writing anything off like this past storm, being slightly under forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hr 57 ccb ownage for the area Hr 60 still going Mother of god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Echo echo echo echo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hr 57 ccb ownage for the area Hr 60 still going Mother of god Tell me more lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 984 inside the benchmark...Euro ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yes I meant to say only the top part was changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 H5 captured quicker... It's stalled inside the bm lol...huge hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Sv maps 12-24 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Echo echo echo echo....If people see the error message just hit the back button to the thread and click on the NYC Metro subforum tab. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Blizzard on the gfs. 15+ for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 KU! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 RGEM @ 36 hours looks more amped than GFS, looks amazing. Can't wait for 48 hours to come out https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/513_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Everyone, just click post once. It's appearing on the forum but the site is running very slowly. If you clicked more than once go back and delete the duplicate posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Wow the Euro is king of the east coast...let's do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I just finished watching that GFS run and all I can say is KING EURO!!!!!!! Thise CCB bands at epic, being in the northern burbs I'm glad all of you are snow, I don't feel so alienated lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 RGEM @ 36 hours looks more amped than GFS, looks amazing. Can't wait for 48 hours to come out https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/513_100.gif Going to be better then the srefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The ARW was so amped at 21z that much of the precip from the city and east was rain, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The ARW was so amped at 21z that much of the precip from the city and east was rain, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Rgem looks very Euro like on the black and whites at hr 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I know, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 These snow maps are assuming a 10:1 ratio this storm will be higher then that maybe 15:1 or more so add at least 50% to those totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Def going going to be a boxing day type cutoff in totals...Very sharp gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Huge run of the gfs...if the euro holds game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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