jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM gives close to nothing for the city. These blow-up storms often go from nothing to a huge blizzard within 50 miles. Look at Boxing Day and 12/30/00. It's good to be a Boston snow weenie right now, that's for sure. If the models start to edge east tonight, it's probably not a great sign for the city and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 These blow-up storms often go from nothing to a huge blizzard within 50 miles. Look at Boxing Day and 12/30/00. It's good to be a Boston snow weenie right now, that's for sure. If the models start to edge east tonight, it's probably not a great sign for the city and west. I would be outright shocked if the models which were all east, came back west for several runs only to bounce back... If it wasn't the euro within 72 hrs I would be nervous, I'm remaining cautiously optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Lol there playing cat and mouse with us...the computers have brains.....terminator movie lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hey weenies, if you want a lift, take a look at the HI-RES 0z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hey weenies, if you want a lift, take a look at the HI-RES 0z nam Or the euro or the gfs or the sref or anything else lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Or the euro or the gfs or the sref or anything else lol I love this place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Back to typical Nam. Watch it shift like a 100 miles next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hey weenies, if you want a lift, take a look at the HI-RES 0z namIt's not good West of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It's the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hey weenies, if you want a lift, take a look at the HI-RES 0z nam http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam4km®ion=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2015012500&fh=3&xpos=0&ypos=148 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 1/25 00Z Summary NYC QPF (Snowfall) SREF: 1.25 - 1.50 (>12") NAM: 0.15 - 0.25 (>2") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Upton 10 pm update&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- NOTE ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS FOR STORM SYSTEM MONDAY-TUESDAY. THE 18Z AND 00Z NAM HAVE MOVED TO A TRACK/IMPACT SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS...WITH MOST OF THE IMPACT E OF THE CT/NY STATE LINE. THE 18Z GFS THOUGH HAS A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE 12Z ECMWF/CMC-GLOBAL/NAM WITH A POTENTIALLY POTENT STORM IMPACTING THE ENTIRE CWA. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING...WHICH FOLLOWS BELOW...BASED ON THESE TRENDS. MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER NW REGARDING A STORM THAT IS PROGGED TO EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING MONDAY. AS THE STORM HEADS TO THE NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES STRONGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED BEFORE A 500 MB LOW CLOSES SOUTH OF US AT SOME POINT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD DRAW THE STORM CLOSER TOWARDS IT...EFFECTIVELY SLOWING DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE NE IN SPITE OF A BLOCKING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVING AWAY. HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF AND DEEPENING OF THE STORM...MESOSCALE BANDING BECOMES MORE LIKELY AS WELL...BUT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE WHERE IT WOULD SET UP. BUT BASED THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEFORMATION THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING...BANDED PRECIPITATION WOULD MOVE AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA...PERHAPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS LIKE TO BE ALL SNOW. RIGHT NOW ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THIS SYSTEM AND CAUSES MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES FOR EASTERN SECTIONS. SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE THE NW TREND OF THE STORM`S TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES COULD BE A BIGGER CONCERN. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT A COLD AIR MASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING THROUGH SE CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PROMOTING PRECIPITATION TYPE OF SNOW. DID NOT WANT TO TREND UPWARD TOO MUCH REGARDING POPS AND TOO HIGH WITH QPF/SNOW TOTALS AT THIS POINT AS LIKELY POPS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST UNTIL THE 5TH PERIOD...BUT WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO RFC AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FROM THE HIGH QPF OUTPUT FROM ECMWF AND NAM...AND THE OTHER MODELS THAT DO NOT SHOW AS MUCH. BUT BASED ON THE NW TREND OF THE STORM...DID MAKE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY WEST OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. FORECAST WINDS DURING THIS STORM COULD BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW...THINKING IS THAT EASTERN AND OTHER COASTAL SECTIONS HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. TOO EARLY FOR ANY HEADLINES REGARDING THE SNOW AND WIND POTENTIAL...BUT WILL ADDRESS AT LEAST THE SNOW ASPECT IN THE HWO AS WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA IS INCREASING IN LIKELIHOOD. BEHIND THE STORM...DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A WEAKER LOW AFFECTS US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CAPPED POPS A CHANCE FOR SNOW...WITH PRECIPITATION MORE LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT MIXED PRECIPITATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 1/25 00Z Summary NYC QPF (Snowfall) SREF: 1.25 - 1.50 (>12") NAM: 0.15 - 0.25 (>2") Big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 for us amateurs what does a negatively tilted trough mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Is it just me, or as the Euro been the most accurate so far this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Upton 10 pm update&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- NOTE ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS FOR STORM SYSTEM MONDAY-TUESDAY. THE 18Z AND 00Z NAM HAVE MOVED TO A TRACK/IMPACT SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS...WITH MOST OF THE IMPACT E OF THE CT/NY STATE LINE. THE 18Z GFS THOUGH HAS A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE 12Z ECMWF/CMC-GLOBAL/NAM WITH A POTENTIALLY POTENT STORM IMPACTING THE ENTIRE CWA. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING...WHICH FOLLOWS BELOW...BASED ON THESE TRENDS. MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER NW REGARDING A STORM THAT IS PROGGED TO EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING MONDAY. AS THE STORM HEADS TO THE NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES STRONGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED BEFORE A 500 MB LOW CLOSES SOUTH OF US AT SOME POINT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD DRAW THE STORM CLOSER TOWARDS IT...EFFECTIVELY SLOWING DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE NE IN SPITE OF A BLOCKING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVING AWAY. HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF AND DEEPENING OF THE STORM...MESOSCALE BANDING BECOMES MORE LIKELY AS WELL...BUT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE WHERE IT WOULD SET UP. BUT BASED THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEFORMATION THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING...BANDED PRECIPITATION WOULD MOVE AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA...PERHAPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS LIKE TO BE ALL SNOW. RIGHT NOW ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THIS SYSTEM AND CAUSES MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES FOR EASTERN SECTIONS. SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE THE NW TREND OF THE STORM`S TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES COULD BE A BIGGER CONCERN. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT A COLD AIR MASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING THROUGH SE CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PROMOTING PRECIPITATION TYPE OF SNOW. DID NOT WANT TO TREND UPWARD TOO MUCH REGARDING POPS AND TOO HIGH WITH QPF/SNOW TOTALS AT THIS POINT AS LIKELY POPS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST UNTIL THE 5TH PERIOD...BUT WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO RFC AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FROM THE HIGH QPF OUTPUT FROM ECMWF AND NAM...AND THE OTHER MODELS THAT DO NOT SHOW AS MUCH. BUT BASED ON THE NW TREND OF THE STORM...DID MAKE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY WEST OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. FORECAST WINDS DURING THIS STORM COULD BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW...THINKING IS THAT EASTERN AND OTHER COASTAL SECTIONS HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. TOO EARLY FOR ANY HEADLINES REGARDING THE SNOW AND WIND POTENTIAL...BUT WILL ADDRESS AT LEAST THE SNOW ASPECT IN THE HWO AS WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA IS INCREASING IN LIKELIHOOD. BEHIND THE STORM...DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A WEAKER LOW AFFECTS US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CAPPED POPS A CHANCE FOR SNOW...WITH PRECIPITATION MORE LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT MIXED PRECIPITATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. -- End Changed Discussion -- they are really covering their behinds in that update especially after last sundays freezing rain advisory cancellation fiasco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The tilt is the angle the trough axis makes with lines of longitude. A negatively tilted trough tilts horizontally (parallel to surface) from the northwest to the southeast. Troughs are usually positive, and when an upper level disturbance reaches maturity it tilts the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 for us amateurs what does a negatively tilted trough mean? http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/127/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The EE rule is when the Euro and the old eta would agree on a storm...which usually meant we were golden. The nam replaced the eta many years ago. The nam is very erratic and usually wrong outside 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 for us amateurs what does a negatively tilted trough mean? A negatively tilted trough is essentially a trough that is tilted to the left from the base on a map. It enables a storm to strengthen very rapidly because the negative tilt enables tremendous lift ahead of the vorticity max (notice how much further height lines spread out from the base of a negatively tilted vs positively tilted trough-spread out height lines mean evacuating air aloft, meaning air rises at the surface to replace it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Is it just me, or as the Euro been the most accurate so far this winter? The Euro is always the most accurate. No other model is really even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The tilt is the angle the trough axis makes with lines of longitude. A negatively tilted trough tilts horizontally (parallel to surface) from the northwest to the southeast. Troughs are usually positive, and when an upper level disturbance reaches maturity it tilts the trough Also, more often than not an indication of a developing or intensifying low pressure system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 There's a lot of posters asking really basic questions like what time do models run and is there a 18z euro lol (which got deleted) and i understand your here to learn and I wouldn't discourage you from asking cause I was like that too but please pm someone or ask it in the Banter so we're not so clogged Mods feel free to delete this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Gfs has light snow starting 7am Monday...hgts looked a little more compressed this run so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Thank you everyone for the explanation on a negatively tilted trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Sw definitely stronger then 18z. Hr 42 light snow Continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Sw definitely stronger then 18z. Hr 42 light snow Continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Sw definitely stronger then 18z. Hr 42 light snow Continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Sw definitely stronger then 18z. Hr 42 light snow Continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Allsnow easy on the posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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