SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The Euro has largely made more sense, you'd figure the previous system would push the baroclinic zone offshore and then also force this south due to the quasi 50/50...no other model really shows that yet, even the 12Z NavGEM develops this significantly off LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The gfs is pretty far north already with this and surface temps are borderline unless north of 78. GFS has 6+ for the area. Not borderline at all. Low goes south of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS has 6+ for the area. Not borderline at all. Low goes south of the area. Whatever the case there's no point in discussing specifics 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Are things so bad that we now have to find reasons to discard model runs that show snowstorms? What happens early next week is very dependent on the first system which has yet to be fully determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acvyse Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 As of last run, Euro has this guy going south and the Tr-State is the northern fringe..barely being scraped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I suggested in the other forum on Saturday's event that a 'psuedo' and temporary -NAO could evolve form that storm. It does go near 50/50 after passage and with the this one following so closely behind, we could pull it off. GFSx has 9" for us, 1/26-27. btw. GFS clobbers everyone from VA. to our area by Feb. 06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Whatever the case there's no point in discussing specifics 4 days out. Amen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Love it news 12 Long Island. Rain Saturday (maybe a little snow) dry monday. Cold next week. If this were to completely verify this winter is in the running for most miserable. I would put chances of this happening at about 25% (They just updated to show snow monday. Not sure why they weren't showing it before) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GGEM looks good for Monday . GGEM UKIE GFS all see it Monday system . 4 days away . Just so early , and a system 2 days out blew up , think it`s best to tread lightly . .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf316 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 how does monday look on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 how does monday look on the euro? CRAP GGEM UKIE GFS look better . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The Euro digs the trough to the Bahamas. One of the reasons why it develops the low hundreds of miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf316 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 i should have known from the lack of posts about it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 how does monday look on the euro? Better than at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Doesn't the EURO usually struggle with these kind of events? I believe the GFS usually does better, could be wrong tho.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Doesn't the EURO usually struggle with these kind of events? I believe the GFS usually does better, could be wrong tho.. In general, the model that does best with any given event is the one that shows the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Even as is the Euro is a solid 1"-3" snowfall for Monday. People really need to temper their expectations. Not every year or every storm will be 2010, 2011 or last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Quick comparison of 0z ECMWF and 12z ECMWF QPF for select cities: Bridgeport: 0z: 0.01"; 12z: 0.12" Islip: 0z: 0.04"; 12z: 0.07" New York City: 0z: 0.05"; 12z: 0.10" Newark: 0z: 0.07"; 12z: 0.11" Philadelphia: 0z: 0.21"; 12z: 0.26" White Plains: 0z: 0.02"; 12z: 0.11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Even as is the Euro is a solid 1"-3" snowfall for Monday. People really need to temper their expectations. Not every year or every storm will be 2010, 2011 or last year. The forecast state of the teleconnections, especially the lack of blocking, argues for a quick moving system. If the guidance is right, it should be quite a bit more energetic than the clipper that departed this morning. Nevertheless, something closer to the 12z ECMWF solution than the 12z GFS solution is probably more likely for the NYC Metro Area and nearby portions of NJ, NY, and CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Btw, nice Day 10 East Coast bomb on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 In general, the model that does best with any given event is the one that shows the most snow. Spot on analysis, as always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Spot on analysis, as always I do what I can to inject some levity on this board... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Doesn't the EURO usually struggle with these kind of events? I believe the GFS usually does better, could be wrong tho.. The euro has dominated the last few years in comparison to the GFS... The thanksgiving storm this past year is a perfect example, euro barely budged for 4 days prior while GFS wobbled all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18z NAM at the end of its run but it certainly looks pretty good. I'm not sure what sort of bias would come into play here as this is not your typical amped up phase job. I'm hard pressed to remember a similar storm. Typically these things dye off and redevelop offshore as they cross the Apps. In this case it's almost like a WAA snow which transfers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18z NAM at the end of its run but it certainly looks pretty good. I'm not sure what sort of bias would come into play here as this is not your typical amped up phase job. I'm hard pressed to remember a similar storm. Typically these things dye off and redevelop offshore as they cross the Apps. In this case it's almost like a WAA snow which transfers. I think this will hit decently to our south, we will get something but probably not as good as PHL or SNJ will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The Euro looks at the Monday system like a clipper and drives the max through SNJ and straight out. The NAM GFS GGEM UKMET are all more robust through our area. So another model war is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Mark my word... This will give significant to major accumulations around north of dc to probably around extreme snj. Advisory-watch snows around phl the rest of us will just bicker as we watch this go south , in shorter terms ( your hopes shud be at like 4 right now, don't put your hopes to high for this one) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18z NAM at the end of its run but it certainly looks pretty good. I'm not sure what sort of bias would come into play here as this is not your typical amped up phase job. I'm hard pressed to remember a similar storm. Typically these things dye off and redevelop offshore as they cross the Apps. In this case it's almost like a WAA snow which transfers. 1/20/2000 came to mind as a similar event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Mark my word... This will give significant to major accumulations around north of dc to probably around extreme snj. Advisory-watch snows around phl the rest of us will just bicker as we watch this go south , in shorter terms ( your hopes shud be at like 4 right now, don't put your hopes to high for this one) The setup at 500 and the NAM's positioning right now relative to its usual bias at 72-84 and the other models to me suggests exactly that...I don't think DC does well but SE PA and PHL very well might...if it were not for the system Saturday I think this could have been a monster and would have turned up the coast but it probably won't due to the baroclinic zone getting shoved east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 So do you think we get anything from this storm or is it another one like yesterday where we'll be lucky to se a flake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.