DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I'm no meteorologist, but my forecasts are almost always accurate. I can comfortably state that for KNYC 10+ is a high probability bet at this point with up to 20" locally. If i had to put a number on it right now I would say 14". The euro is a top all time storm, but I'd have to see great ensemble agreement or 0z doing it again before I jumped on that train. ISP east 16-22" looks likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 they said the same thing in dec 2010. and we got 20 inches of snow. Ahh good old convective feedback issues huh? lol anytime they're being cautious and don't wanna bite quit yet the outlier model has "convective feedback" I would take that excuse with a grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 JEFF SMITH @ ABC7 tweets: "Growing concern for a major Nor'easter early next week.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ahh good old convective feedback issues huh? lol anytime they're being cautious and don't wanna bite quit yet the outlier model has "convective feedback" I would take that excuse with a grain of salt Right, exactly and yet when the same excuse is used by some to dismiss a less snowy solution, none of these same cautious people ever claim that it's correct to say that there is convective feedback and we get a bust in snowier direction and those cautious people again look foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks like a long duration event, 18-24 hours maybe longer?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks like a long duration event, 18-24 hours maybe longer?? The euro seems to dump most of what falls in a 6-hour period.....which is both awesome and scary. Scary because it makes you realize how just a small shift with that insane 6 hour period of VERY heavy snow could result in making this still a significant, but not extreme storm like it's showing. Fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Right, exactly and yet when the same excuse is used by some to dismiss a less snowy solution, none of these same cautious people ever claim that it's correct to say that there is convective feedback and we get a bust in snowier direction and those cautious people again look foolish.however I've rarely seen a model run that doesn't verify BASED on convective feedback issues alone yet it's thrown around a lot, but i see what ur saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Btw I know it's the GFS, and I hate Boxing Day references.. But NWS tossed the GFS when it brought the Boxing Day blizzard back 2 days out yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The euro seems to dump most of what falls in a 6-hour period.....which is both awesome and scary. Scary because it makes you realize how just a small shift with that insane 6 hour period of VERY heavy snow could result in making this still a significant, but not extreme storm like it's showing. Fingers crossedScary also becaue if this storm dumps that much in six hours, well it'll be like what happen to Brookhaven in February 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro ensembles look great . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 noreaster.png Umm, that's insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Scary also becaue if this storm dumps that much in six hours, well it'll be like what happen to Brookhaven in February 2013 You're right. I remember when they got that dumping, even right before it happened.....many were saying "there's no way that's actually snow is it?!?!" as the band approached on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The euro seems to dump most of what falls in a 6-hour period.....which is both awesome and scary. Scary because it makes you realize how just a small shift with that insane 6 hour period of VERY heavy snow could result in making this still a significant, but not extreme storm like it's showing. Fingers crossed Six hours of intense snowfall rates, but that's s 15-20 hour duration storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro ensembles bm crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Well, here is our clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro ensembles bm crush job For all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro ensembles bm crush job For the entire metro or mostly eastern sections? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 For all? For all. At least 10"+ ..more as you head towards nyc and LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Would not be shocked to see NAM bite towards the Euro at the 18z run. The 12z move reminded me of the old EE rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 East of the op but not by a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Wow, the 12z ECMWF are excellent. There does seem to be an interesting trend with some of the individual members having a double-barreled low, in which the stronger low is the far eastern one. 44/51 (87%) members have 6" or more for the city. Mean of 1.2" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 EURO ENSEMBLES go BOOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Six hours of intense snowfall rates, but that's s 15-20 hour duration storm.96 falls in 6 hours in mid 20s temps. that could translate into 15 inches in a six hour span Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 For the entire metro or mostly eastern sections? The ensemble mean has the bullseye over SNE/SNJ/ELI around 15-20" (2 feet south of BOS), but still a foot in and around NYC even down to DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Umm, that's insane. I have no idea what this means; just someone here who always enjoyed weather and now my kids do, too. We're near KMMU, what would that mean for us? Thanks to anyone who can explain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looking at weatherbell, many of the individuals are clustered west of the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The ensemble mean has the bullseye over SNE/SNJ/ELI around 15-20", but still a foot in and around NYC even down to DE That's insane for a 50 member mean. Huge signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 do ensembles contain convective feedback issues like OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 do ensembles contain convective feedback issues like OP? Depends on who's analyzing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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