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Potential coastal storm 1/26-28


robertgny

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Anyone on the forum work for Sanitation or OEM and know how long it takes to gear the City up for this type of event?   

I would think they are at least half way there. Sanitation had all their plows and salt trucks geared up for today's event, so it's probably not like they would have to start from scratch. If models continue the trend, I bet they keep the plows on the collection trucks for Monday and brings them in to redeploy as plows as the snow starts.

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The coldest 5 day period is in front of us  Early Jan we had a week of - 12 , think we have a chance next week to beat it .

I have been saying we are going to beat the 4 we saw in early Jan , and Feb may just turn out to be BRUTAL .

 

I  love the Euro and I live and die by it , but I just want to see it replicate this 1 more x , these jump scenarios happen .

They get going late and smash SNE .  The misses are always on my mind . Great run if it verified would be one we will talk about over and over .

The Euro burned me at 12z Wed when I bought the CCB over the island , so I am cautious .

I think if it pulls this again tonight at 0z, there's a real chance of it happening. This run should get people's attention but it's been known to get overexcited sometimes. And the other models should hopefully keep coming west.

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Waiting to see indiv sref members, but there is also the chance that the mean shows what it does because there are some arw members which runs off the GFS which develop things different upscale. The NMM on ewall had its control going a bit south a little compared to others, which would likely result in the eastward track.

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While we don't have a -NAO today's storm acts as a 50/50 low and with the ridge spike out west..the energy really digs. This is doable. Folks if this storm materializes you can thank today's event

 

Yeah, today's event is the 50/50 with cold high pressure to our north. All our higher end snowstorms

were preceded by stronger -AO than this one was. So the Euro verbatim will be a first for us as that

December 2003 was a weaker event compared to the 12z Euro.

 

 

 

Lowest -AO readings leading up to NYC 12"or greater snowstorms since 1965:

 

 

February 13-14, 2014.....12.5........1-27......-2.605

January 26-27,2011.......19.0.........1-22.......-2.411

December 26-27, 2010..20.0.........12-18.....-5.265

February 25-27, 2010....20.9..........2-14.......-5.132

February 11, 2006..........26.9.........2-3...........-2.729

January 22-23, 2005......13.8........1-22............-2.621

December 5-7, 2003......14.0........11-15.........-0.382

February 16-17, 2003.....19.8.......1-22...........-3.575

December 30, 2000.......12.0........12-29.........-4.688

January 7-8, 1996..........20.2.........12-19........-4.353

February 11, 1994..........12.8..........1-10..........-3.073

February 11-12, 1983......17.6.........2-6............-3.410

February 19, 1979...........12.7.........1-25...........-4.387

February 5, 1978............17.7..........2-5............-5.291

January 19-20, 1978.......13.6.........12-21.........-2-274

February 9-10, 1969.......15.3..........2-8..............-3.448

February 6-7,1967..........12.5...........1-29...........-2.225

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Btw I know it's the GFS, and I hate Boxing Day references.. But NWS tossed the GFS when it brought the Boxing Day blizzard back 2 days out

Mike had asked me to look for that WPC discussion, could you possibly help me out with that? I'm having trouble finding it in the archives.
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Do you know why I'm so confident in the euros solution.. Not necessarily the amounts but the track and solution? How many times have we seen the euro bite this hard within 72 hrs on what was a far different solution a day ago then loose it again...anyone?

I've learned when it comes to the EURO, it has the best handle on coastal events. Another more important thing to point out, for the most part it likes to lock in to the track once inside 72 hours. With this potential rare event, we have both factors on our side. A potentially historic event is about to unfold, and everyone's going bonkers. I wish Earthlight would chime in and give us his thoughts cause he's always a voice of reason. 

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