Stormlover74 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The atmosphere has been doing some really wild stuff in recent years. This. Sandy, March 2010, tornadoes in brooklyn, august 2011/Irene. We're due for an epic widespread blizzard, if not now certainly in the next few winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It's a shocking turn of events for sure but I just can't get excited for this yet. This is just one euro run. Please keep in mind it has no support and we can just as equally be fringed with lighter snows while SNE gets theirs.With all due respect, it has plenty of support. Granted it's not the exact same support on the other models, but this model is not on an island. Also, it's the second run its showing a strong storm, yes not for the whole tri state but it's a second very strong run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 *starts doing the snowmagedden dance * I don't know if I have ever seen a more beautiful setup aloft. Even the 300 mb jet streak is just mouth watering. Let's get the ensembles on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Man this forum will shut down tonight of we see more and more models jump on board! Insane run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 While this definitely has gotten way more interesting, I'm not ready to jump on the insane train for Monday until we have more models join the EURO. It wasn't too long ago that we were drooling over a 969mb bomb over the benchmark, so it's probably best to err on the side of caution for another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 No matter how bad of a start winter may have.....a lesson to never throw in the towel til Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Let's get the ensembles on boardHonestly, with what it just showed, if the ensembles are not on board, I'll be exceedingly surprised.Edit : but yes, as always, one step at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I would think that if things stay on track that Winter Storm/Blizzard Watches would be issued either tomorrow morning or afternoon by the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Anyone on the forum work for Sanitation or OEM and know how long it takes to gear the City up for this type of event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Until the GFS gets the kind of funding that the European model Center gets for the euro it will never stack up, people don't realize how much more advanced the euro is in terms of algorithms and upgrades, and we just don't fund enough to keep up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I would think that if things stay on track that Winter Storm/Blizzard Watches would be issued either tomorrow morning or afternoon by the NWS. Watches probably tomorrow afternoon. Blizzard warnings require a lot of model agreement and criteria in order to issue, so there would need to be some consistency and probably those would go up Monday during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Anyone on the forum work for Sanitation or OEM and know how long it takes to gear the City up for this type of event?Working hand in hand with Suffolk County Oem most of the time,; we won't have the time to gear up completely for this storm. But, in Suffolk, if they pulled out all the stops by tomorrow afternoon, we could be somewhat prepapared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 While this definitely has gotten way more interesting, I'm not ready to jump on the insane train for Monday until we have more models join the EURO. It wasn't too long ago that we were drooling over a 969mb bomb over the benchmark, so it's probably best to err on the side of caution for another day. Wow, that would be one insane easterly jet coming in from the Atlantic=tons of moisture transport for tremendous snow banding. 2/8/13 had many of the same features, which drove the superband over Suffolk County and CT. Looking at surface winds, they should also easily gust to 50-60 mph if not higher along the coast. Hopefully tonight's runs solidify the trending from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro gets something like $90 million a year and NCEP combined I believe gets $45 mil a year. Money talks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Watches probably tomorrow afternoon. Blizzard warnings require a lot of model agreement and criteria in order to issue, so there would need to be some consistency and probably those would go up Monday during the day. If 0z models show this, blizzard watches will almost surely be hoisted by midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 What's this talk by the WPC on convective feedback on the EURO resulting in this solution? Any mets care to chime in on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 What winds are we looking at here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 While this definitely has gotten way more interesting, I'm not ready to jump on the insane train for Monday until we have more models join the EURO. It wasn't too long ago that we were drooling over a 969mb bomb over the benchmark, so it's probably best to err on the side of caution for another day. 100% agree - best to take the cautious approach ATM - either way, that will be a run Ill always remember - if something like that were to verify - it would be a storm of a lifetime - cant let myself get hooked yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 What's this talk by the WPC on convective feedback on the EURO resulting in this solution? Any mets care to chime in on that? Hmm. Agree, would like to hear someone like Snowgoose or Forky chime in. Typhoon Tip posted something in the NE thread about the Euro forming a wave off the Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 What's this talk by the WPC on convective feedback on the EURO resulting in this solution? Any mets care to chime in on that? CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM EVOLVING INTO A NOR'EASTER MON/TUE~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: UKMET/CANADIAN COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGETHERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH SOME OF IT INTRODUCEDBY AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE STREAKING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND SOMEINTRODUCED BY ITS BURGEONING SIZE OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM AS ITAPPROACHES THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND. THE 12Z GFS IS THESTRONGEST/MOST CONSOLIDATED ALOFT. THE 12Z ECMWF USES WHATAPPEARS TO BE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYE AT 60-66HOURS/MONDAY NIGHT TO DRAG ITS SURFACE LOW DUE NORTH ONCE ITEMERGES OFF CAPE HATTERAS, WHICH LOOKS UNREALISTIC. WITH AT LEASTTWO NOTABLE SHORTWAVES MERGING TO CREATE THIS LARGE SYSTEM, ITCOULD TAKE A WHILE TO CONSOLIDATE ALOFT, IMPLYING THE GFS ISPROBABLY TOO DEEP ALOFT. THE TREND IN THE ECMWF IS TOWARDS A MORESOUTHERLY SYSTEM, WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS/UKMET HAVE TRENDED STRONGERALOFT OVER THEIR PAST DAY OR SO OF RUNS, WHICH HAS FORCED AWESTWARD TREND AT THE SURFACE. WITH THE STRENGTHENING TRENDALOFT/WESTERLY SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK TREND, THE 00Z GLOBALENSEMBLE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE UTILITY TODAY. ACOMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF, CLOSE TO THE 12Z UKMET/12ZCANADIAN, IS PREFERRED WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO THELARGE DAY-T0-DAY CHANGES SEEN IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. Very interesting...don't think they like the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH SOME OF IT INTRODUCED BY AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE STREAKING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND SOME INTRODUCED BY ITS BURGEONING SIZE OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND. THE 12Z GFS IS THE STRONGEST/MOST CONSOLIDATED ALOFT. THE 12Z ECMWF USES WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYE AT 60-66 HOURS/MONDAY NIGHT TO DRAG ITS SURFACE LOW DUE NORTH ONCE IT EMERGES OFF CAPE HATTERAS, WHICH LOOKS UNREALISTIC. WITH AT LEAST TWO NOTABLE SHORTWAVES MERGING TO CREATE THIS LARGE SYSTEM, IT COULD TAKE A WHILE TO CONSOLIDATE ALOFT, IMPLYING THE GFS IS PROBABLY TOO DEEP ALOFT. THE TREND IN THE ECMWF IS TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY SYSTEM, WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS/UKMET HAVE TRENDED STRONGER ALOFT OVER THEIR PAST DAY OR SO OF RUNS, WHICH HAS FORCED A WESTWARD TREND AT THE SURFACE. WITH THE STRENGTHENING TREND ALOFT/WESTERLY SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK TREND, THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE UTILITY TODAY. A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF, CLOSE TO THE 12Z UKMET/12Z CANADIAN, IS PREFERRED WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LARGE DAY-T0-DAY CHANGES SEEN IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. I would like to hear what DT has to say about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro gets something like $90 million a year and NCEP combined I believe gets $45 mil a year. Money talks. Exactly my point, trust the euro folks, especially if it's trending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I would like to hear what DT has to say about this. probably something to the affect of "they're all idiots, they can Bleep my Bleep - i Know everything -" just paraphrasing of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Very interesting...don't think they like the ECMWF. When do they lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The atmosphere has been doing some really wild stuff in recent years. The coldest 5 day period is in front of us Early Jan we had a week of - 12 , think we have a chance next week to beat it . I have been saying we are going to beat the 4 we saw in early Jan , and Feb may just turn out to be BRUTAL . I love the Euro and I live and die by it , but I just want to see it replicate this 1 more x , these jump scenarios happen . They get going late and smash SNE . The misses are always on my mind . Great run if it verified would be one we will talk about over and over . The Euro burned me at 12z Wed when I bought the CCB over the island , so I am cautious . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 probably something to the affect of "they're all idiots, they can Bleep my Bleep - i Know everything -" just paraphrasing of courseWPC said the exact same thing when the models brought boxing day back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Credit to Typhoon Tip in the NE forum : " Quick notes of caution... This system has evolved in the models to be a very large, and powerfully dynamic system. So much so that it will have "it's own" internal idiosyncrasies that will inevitably emerge, and be poorly modeled when they do. Such nuances can and do have an impact on sensible as well as more meaningful strike events... Having said that, the Euro actually is processing details that may not even exist ... or, perhaps they will; but the point being, with immense systems of certain power comes along equally daunting complexities, and the Euro's creating a wave out over the Gulf Stream may have a couple considerations.... One, it may rob some moisture from wrapping W into the CCB band. It may also cut off some of the WCB ingest into the core deep layer mechanics. The 2ndary result of that (if in deed it is an error) is that the system may actually not be currently modeled deep or prolific enough in that particular guidance source... That said, there is soooo much incredible dynamics with this thing, satellite vortices (to borrow an expression from our Plains brethren) almost seem necessary. I could almost even envision a wave forming over the Bahamas after the cold front clears Florida." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 They might wanna look at the new srefs. Lol. Oh my. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 WPC said the exact same thing when the models brought boxing day back. The WPC is just pissed that the GFS didn't pick up on it first. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Very interesting...don't think they like the ECMWF. Nope. no support really for such an extreme solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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