UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I feel like the GFS and Canadian will come further back west tonight. Regardless, massive improvements on both models Both models didn't get last nights storm right till 12 hrs before event and even then they were still off slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The UKMET gives snow and narrowly misses hitting NYC hard, ERN LI does get hit, a 75 mile shift and its a world of difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 If the Euro holds or trends even more favorably then confidence increases greatly if not then just the opposite. Still time for change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Is this an evening no or morning event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Is this an evening no or morning event Right now, it's late evening into early morning, but if it trends more favorably it would probably last for a good bit of the day on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 If the Euro holds or trends even more favorably then confidence increases greatly if not then just the opposite. Still time for change. I was comparing it earlier to 2/25/99, to me it looks like a more west version of that, the ridge out west is further west and the system is captured a bit earlier, nobody west of the Hamptons saw much with that, I think this event could hit fairly good for all of Suffolk county, west of there I think we may be relying on energy from the merging in vort, those can deliver 3-4 inches easily in these setups at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The UKMET gives snow and narrowly misses hitting NYC hard, ERN LI does get hit, a 75 mile shift and its a world of difference. close and usual UKMET error argues a bit west but time will tell/ Great trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Not a bad looking sounding for Eastern MASS this run. Blizzard conditions with gusts near hurricane force. SND.gif That's a great looking sounding! Heavy wind blown snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 12z GGEM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It seems like there's a good consensus that the storm will be very strong, and that there will be sufficient cold air. A 50-75 mile shift (which is definitely in the range of possibility due to the recent trending) would smash NYC and its immediate surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 1ST GUESS WILL BE HUGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 1ST GUESS WILL BE HUGE Any specific analogs for this one. Jan 25, 2000? Feb 2013? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I'd watch the overrunning potential for this area in the SSE mid-level flow as the system develops off Virginia, the high is well positioned to the north and we could see snow break out in that setup as evidenced in this frame right here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Any specific analogs for this one. Jan 25, 2000? Feb 2013? I liked snowgoose's analog of 2/99 but further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I would like to see another 50-75 mile shift west, if not, it is going to be pretty painful watching places just east of the city getting a blizzard while the city west get much less especially west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 12Z Summary (NYC) Timing : Monday evening - Tuesday morning NAM: >8" (LI / SNE Crushed) GFS : 0 - Trace (LI / SNE special) GEFS: >2" (LI / SNE special) UKMET: >4" (LI / NSE crushed) GGEM: >5" (LI / SNE crushed) GGEM ENSEMBLES: ECM: ECM Ensembles: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 ANALOGS Break out the KU 2 volumes books 8-10 FEB 1969 the Lindays storm 5-7 FEB 1978 .. Enough said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 There is a time to go woof and time NOT toooJAN 23-24 Not this one ? woofKNOWING the difference doesnt make me anti snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I would like to see another 50-75 mile shift west, if not, it is going to be pretty painful watching places just east of the city getting a blizzard while the city west get much less especially west of the city. I need more of a shift. Not expeting much of anything in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I was comparing it earlier to 2/25/99, to me it looks like a more west version of that, the ridge out west is further west and the system is captured a bit earlier, nobody west of the Hamptons saw much with that, I think this event could hit fairly good for all of Suffolk county, west of there I think we may be relying on energy from the merging in vort, those can deliver 3-4 inches easily in these setups at times. Where can I find more information about that analog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 There is a time to go woof and time NOT tooo JAN 23-24 Not this one ? woof KNOWING the difference doesnt make me anti snow How much further west if any do you think it trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Just looked at the 500mb map of the Lindsay storm DT it looks amazingly similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Just looked at the 500mb map of the Lindsay storm DT it looks amazingly similar Both of those storms did have big impacts on NJ, not sure of exact amounts in NJ, if anyone has them please post them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Is this going to come any west to impact our NJ area or should we stop looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 ANALOGS Break out the KU 2 volumes books 8-10 FEB 1969 the Lindays storm 5-7 FEB 1978 .. Enough said Serious company 5-7 1978, best storm i have ever seen, nothing close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bikerman262 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Both of those storms did have big impacts on NJ, not sure of exact amounts in NJ, if anyone has them please post them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Is this going to come any west to impact our NJ area or should we stop looking Some of the models do impact NJ, especially the eastern half. It is just a matter of how big the impacts will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Hopefully the models trend more for the earlier negative tilt. That's what will trap the low from going out to sea and force it north, and develop a CCB as the low closes off. Right now on most models it happens a little too late for NYC but the trends are encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Both of those storms did have big impacts on NJ, not sure of exact amounts in NJ, if anyone has them please post them. Ask and u shall receive Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.