ravensrule Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm not sure GFS was even top end yet either. GFS was a good look for this range in old GFS day. I may set my bar high.Everyone was laughing at Roger Smith 2 weeks ago but he was right on with his call. He is going balls to the wall again so im in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm not sure GFS was even top end yet either. GFS was a good look for this range in old GFS day. I may set my bar high. The real fun starts when we get a run tomorrow with a 1-2 contour closed h5 pass. Euro and gfs are both really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I remember a clipper in 87? that blew up with thundersnow as it passed just south and off the coast. You guys with rainman snow memory would prob know it off the top of your heads. Seeing how organized it is as it passed and then deepens off the coast is a bit exciting. I'll be up for the euro to knock me back to reality. That was the one that dumped 6 inches of snow on my gloved hand in Jan 1987 in 10 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Insomnia strikes again. For anybody up, 6z NAM is even farther south than 0z so far at hour 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Unfortunately I am up and on my way to work where I am cut off from the outside world for 10 hours. Indeed the NAM is looking better at this time. I am hoping that when I return to the world the 06 and 12z runs are still rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Took a little better vort track in the end, but looks like less precip. coverage. hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Took a little better vort track in the end, but looks like less precip. coverage. hmm. Probably because the NAM is not good at this range... The 6z GFS would be warning level snows for DC to PHL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Enters in the same area. eta: image messed up.. one sec. edit 2: eh, it's imgur. you can deal: http://imgur.com/dMl4Mk1 I was gonna draw this comparison... 2/10/10 was a crazy strong ns vort that blew up off the coast. But to be fair that was a bona fide blizzard... looking at the SLP on the maps it was only 1000 when it passed.. There was a double barrel look with and another storm already forming off the coast in advance... The whole complex phased and pivotted right over top of us... it got most of its moisture from the Atlantic so its possible to see the kind of solution we saw last nightI figured I would have been blasted if I drew the comparison... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Let's lock up the 6z gfs, 0.5+ for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Let's lock up the 6z gfs, 0.5+ for most of the area. It's not great for NOVA. Taken literally, maybe 1-2", while north gets slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I like what State College mentioned in their disco this morning -- we just need a little shift south: BLEND OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS QPF IN THE 0.25 TO0.50 INCH RANGE...IMPLYING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL. HIGHESTTOTALS LIKELY TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BASED ON CURRENT TRACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 What would be nice is for a series of good solutions today building on last night's euphoria. We've had a tough time backing up multiple good runs this winter. An actual legit winter storm watch would be a nice thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's not great for NOVA. Taken literally, maybe 1-2", while north gets slammed. Looks to me like close to dc in nova is 0.5 and then a broad area of 0.25, you have to go pretty far to get into the 0.10. Looks like it would be a nice event for just about everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 One thing I noticed on the GFS is it is showing what I think is an inverted trough feature that kind of sits over E PA, E MD, & DE. That is why we are seeing a QPF max in that area; 500mb kind of reminds me a little of Feb 2-4 2009. The EURO is very close, and we all know as bad as the GFS is it does handle N branch storms a lot better than the EURO. The 6z RGEM @ 48 hours shows a potent shortwave diving SE-ward Excited for the 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The shortwave that is eventually going to cause this storm is originating in a location that tends to be difficult for models to handle so I wouldn't be shocked if we see some significant changes either way on the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'll take the 00z GFS please -- cobb output; 11.6" snow 06z GFS isn't bad either; 8.7" snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The GEFS is getting close to a perfect vort pass for our area. I usually dont get very excited for clippers as they tend to screw us out here and bloom east of us. Just like a few days ago. But this is a Mauler. Its a pretty strong storm. If it can track just 30 or 40 miles south of where it is right now. We all do good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'll take the 00z GFS please -- cobb output; 11.6" snow 06z GFS isn't bad either; 8.7" snow I knew 0z was great, didn't know it shows almost a foot. Where do you find that info? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I knew 0z was great, didn't know it shows almost a foot. Where do you find that info? http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=w54 w54 is westminster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=w54 w54 is westminster Thanks! I think I'll use both Westminster and BWI... my climo is right in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Wow...overnight runs look amazing for this event. Vort trended stronger and farther south. Looks like it could take a near-perfect pass for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 SREFs made a nice jump towards the event .25 over DC with some spread for more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 10.0 on the cobb for MTN on 6z. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Is it just me or is this becoming like 1/21 last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Is it just me or is this becoming like 1/21 last year? I got 9" with that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 I got 9" with that one Believe i scooped up 7.5 in that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 0z Euro ens mslp track went south. OH/KY border-RIC-off the coast. Lots of spread on precip. Around .15 on the mean but unlike 12z, there are more members showing a moderate event. Looks like a light to moderate event is becoming likely. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Lets hope south trends continue and DCA south gets jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I got 9" with that one Yeah that was a nice one and it sucked for me to miss out... not only was it 6-10" but it also had temps falling into the teens right when it happened. Pretty sure it was also a strong clipper that exploded at the right time and place. A repeat would be sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yeah that was a nice one and it sucked for me to miss out... not only was it 6-10" but it also had temps falling into the teens right when it happened. Pretty sure it was also a strong clipper that exploded at the right time and place. A repeat would be sweet. That was a very nice event. It doesn't look like this airmass will be as cold as that one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.