Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Keep in mind for the GFS, at least in DC, it is in the 40s when it starts and we probably aren't snow until 3-4am....and even after that we mix at some point.....it is really more 3-4" than higher amounts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Keep in mind for the GFS, at least in DC, it is in the 40s when it starts and we probably aren't snow until 3-4am....and even after that we mix at some point.....it is really more 3-4" than higher amounts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Seriously - can we keep this limited to actual storm/model discussion. Keep the debate to the banter thread. Unacceptable behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Keep in mind for the GFS, at least in DC, it is in the 40s when it starts and we probably aren't snow until 3-4am....and even after that we mix at some point.....it is really more 3-4" than higher amounts... yea, tomorrow's pregame temps have me a little concerned with the initial qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Keep in mind for the GFS, at least in DC, it is in the 40s when it starts and we probably aren't snow until 3-4am....and even after that we mix at some point.....it is really more 3-4" than higher amounts... yea, tomorrow's pregame temps have me a little concerned with the initial qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I have a weenie feeling this is only going to get better. Now, I leave this trend and leave it to the pros. Thanks to everyone that adds to the forum. Peace.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 LOL, yes you are one for bold calls...and I like it. Is the board still acting screwy for others? I mean I make forecasts on numbers a lot, but I usually do well I fell as though at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 RGEM is "close" to really good but its actually really warm, lots of rain in that qpf, but its close to a really good solution if it bombs just a little faster. At 48 hours it has wrap around precip all the way back to Front Royal and State College PA. Just need temps to cool a few degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 yea, tomorrow's pregame temps have me a little concerned with the initial qpf. GFS has 18z temps in the low 40's even here. Then it says we crash into the low 30's by 0z. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 yea, tomorrow's pregame temps have me a little concerned with the initial qpf. yeah...for me and you, I wouldn't assume accumulating snow until at least 10-11pm and probably later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 well you can always re do the 3rd grade Exactly. Im done bickering with him. The man is just a miserable human being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I have a weenie feeling this is only going to get better. Now, I leave this trend and leave it to the pros. Thanks to everyone that adds to the forum. You're welcome. I do try. I don't know if you should have called me a pro. You were talking to me, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I hate Boston's cheating football team, their stupid accent,, and most of all I hate their ****ing snow, but gosh dammit I like their beer. A case of Winter Lager will help me ease the sting of this next screw job. A good way to ease the torture of the impending sting job is to go play a few rounds of craps. I get shyte luck with snow in this raintown/screwtown, but I do much much better with craps. I leave feeling really great every time. The best part is, West Virginia has no effin clue how to remove snow. I love getting to slide all over Route 9. Besides, if I land in a deep ditch, I'll just enjoy a jebwalk in the snow up there. The colder, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 forget the RGEM http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015012500&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=228 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Keep in mind for the GFS, at least in DC, it is in the 40s when it starts and we probably aren't snow until 3-4am....and even after that we mix at some point.....it is really more 3-4" than higher amounts... Raw temps are 35 in DC at 1am but 32 line is basically over my house. Temps are crashing quick with the heavier rates. Not sure how much is lost to rain but definitely some to melt on contact. It's close enough not to get hung up too much on it. We'll know much more tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Problem in DC will be 2m temps. We should get enough precip for a 6" storm if it were in the 20s. The euro dryslot has little merit in the SLP or 700mb maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 RGEM temps at the end of its run are the last thing I'd be worrying about... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 New thread has been started. Mods/admin delete one of the duplicates, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 forget the RGEM http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015012500&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=228 qpf is great, problem is temps, its mostly rain even up here for me. Its a torch and I am not sure why given the h5 digs well south and the SLP is developing off the NC coast..and all that equals the warmest model run yet. weird huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 and it's another rain storm. lol. what a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45496-125-127-mauler-thread-2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 if you look at these LARGER maps of the rgem at 36 hrs there appear to be a huge dry slot over at 36 hrs a that move up into most of VA at 48 hrs ... and I dont see any significant precip being produced east of the Blue Ridge http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/513_100.gif http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Well, so looks like I missed some interesting stuff, between the GFS almost going coastal and the DT controversy! Just managed to log in successfully (finally), after some failures. Glad the board is back up. Things running slow on my end right now, a bit behind, but I did see the latest 00Z GFS and see what everyone is talking about. That is a nice turn-around. Forgive the basic question here, but I'm wondering if the orientation of the ridge out west is prohibiting this thing from going negative tilt earlier? If that were more north-south and sharper, in other words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Apologies for the multiple posts, folks. Guess others have had similar problems. I removed the extras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Keep in mind for the GFS, at least in DC, it is in the 40s when it starts and we probably aren't snow until 3-4am....and even after that we mix at some point.....it is really more 3-4" than higher amounts...Yes it is warmis early. It was a really nice vort pass tho. in theory some hefty temp drop potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 qpf is great, problem is temps, its mostly rain even up here for me. Its a torch and I am not sure why given the h5 digs well south and the SLP is developing off the NC coast..and all that equals the warmest model run yet. weird huh? oddly, RGEM was the coldest model for yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45496-125-127-mauler-thread-2/ I'm taking the convo into this thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The Canadian is like super warm....I dont really get it, it looks like a decent run but conditionals are showing mostly rain. Its strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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