clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I hate Boston's cheating football team, their stupid accent,, and most of all I hate their ****ing snow, but gosh dammit I like their beer. A case of Winter Lager will help me ease the sting of this next screw job. I already started. I think that might b obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm just playing the odds based on past experience. I've been reality slapped too many times for being too optimistic in this kind of setup. There is upside potential just a lot of bad history already written. PSU's point is valid. Even between 12-18z on the gfs the vort dug deeper and more neutral. A couple ticks and things change. If 0z digs less with a more pos tilt than 18z then I'll remain quite skeptical. It's definitely possible with how far south its ended up. Just look where the euro wet in 1 run. History makes us doubt anything good.. I'd doubt it if a model shows it or assume it would disappear in the end or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Something I noticed looking at the h5 on the models today and comparing them to a lot of the analogs being thrown around...the H5 with this storm is digging way further south then a lot of those screw job analogs. 2005 for instance, the h5 tracked across PA. This time it is digging well south of DC. There are other ways to get screwed over of course, but I am not as sold this is a done deal that way yet. 18z RGEM seemed to be heading towards something really big when it cut off at 48 hours. The low was developing down off NC. The h5 would argue for that IMO. exactly what i said earlier. the dec 2000 event setup was further north in general. not a lot further north, but noticeable. onto the 0z gfs i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It's definitely possible with how far south its ended up. Just look where the euro wet in 1 run. History makes us doubt anything good.. I'd doubt it if a model shows it or assume it would disappear in the end or something.Exactly. I think the real models are just getting use to the idea of a big coastal. It could trend either way at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Back edge of the troff ticked west. That may help offset the positive tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 45 -- 996mb SLP. 48 -- 991mb SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GFS popped the coastal due south of OBX at hour 39. Better position for us. We'll see how the rest of the run goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 YES the LAST storm was mostly rain in DC whicv as we all know is JUST the exact same as 6" of snow in DC or BWI Wes never called for 6" in DC, so I'm not sure that this is even a relevant statement. Wes said we would have a pattern that would give us opportunities at snow, and that's what we are in, he also said even though it's a decent pattern for cold and some snow opportunities we could miss out. Not sure how any of that is wrong at this point, unless you (DT) totally misunderstood what Wes' was saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 YES the LAST storm was mostly rain in DC whicv as we all know is JUST the exact same as 6" of snow in DC or BWI Wes never called for 6" in DC, so I'm not sure that this is even a relevant statement. Wes said we would have a pattern that would give us opportunities at snow, and that's what we are in, he also said even though it's a decent pattern for cold and some snow opportunities we could miss out. Not sure how any of that is wrong at this point, unless you (DT) totally misunderstood what Wes' was saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GFS ticked ever so slightly better at h5. I'd take this run all day long either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Lol GFS. 0.5+ for all of DC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 0.6 for dc, great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 .60 dca and west. Very nice indeeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm cool with it. Come on baby.. you can do it. Just a little bit more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 wow you cant be this stupid... the issue was likelihood of accumulating snow in either DC or RIC from Miller B events Who said anything about Richmond? We all know it doesnt snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GFS looks pretty great to my weenie eyes through H48. Still in the snow at H54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Lol GFS. 0.5+ for all of DC metro We really needed this run RGEM will be up in a min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I only have thru 39, but this looks like it has a fair amount of up potential with that vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Solid hit from GFS, let's see where RGEM goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 wow you cant be this stupid... the issue was likelihood of accumulating snow in either DC or RIC from Miller B events The whole thing has been twisted. Wes said the pattern had normal to above normal chances of snow. It's already snowed once and it's going to snow again. You said the chances were below normal or non existent. Talking specifics was never in the article. Wes' article panned out perfectly. I'm not sure why this is even being debated anymore. We ALL know how miller B's go around here. There are no weenie goggles or unrealistic expectations or analysis going on in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Gfs looks great. Low goes inside the bench too so there's still hope on that. Euro will pique my interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 wow you cant be this stupid... the issue was likelihood of accumulating snow in either DC or RIC from Miller B events Go back and read the posts carefully. Then you decide who looks stupid. There is so much more I want to say. But you do have that red tag and all. GFS is solid for the entire metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Sucks for me. Bring on the February storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Nice I get 6+ on this run. Much better than the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Woah... RGEM is transferring way south it seems http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/513_100.gif As in south of ILM it would appear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Also, for those comparing miller Bs, there aren't many analogs for a miller B moving SSE out of Canada south of DCA latitude. The analogs being used had more of an Eastward transfer of energy across DC, so we shouldn't rely so heavily on miller b history for this situation of a low going from WVA to south of the obx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Gfs also likes the inverted trough for the area once the coastal takes over. And is more robust overall than the nam. Pretty tenuous to rely on features like that but both models have it so just have to hope it doesn't move around in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 If only it could be a bit further west. As it is, DC north is good for a respectable event. PHL north/northeast gets it good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 then send it to me in PM..... just be sure that you arent the one doing the twistinglike for example you comment non the winchester forecast it was 1-3 then mixing then another 1-3 it wasnt REALLY 2 to 6" and you know that ...perhaps you can come up a new charge Like the time said the winter is over Go back and read the posts carefully. Then you decide who looks stupid. There is so much more I want to say. But you do have that red tag and all. GFS is solid for the entire metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.