usedtobe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18 z gfs was a step towards what we need. It was, the 500 is quite a bit better than the 12Z version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It was, the 500 is quite a bit better than the 12Z version.The euro has been consistent showing the vort tracking under us and the low firming to our southeast and stalling. It's been a weak mess though. Gfs inconsistent jumps make me believe that track right now. Issue is does this amp a bit as we get closer. I think it does.ETA: besides this super clipper is the type of storm we can score with lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It was, the 500 is quite a bit better than the 12Z version. Almost identical in many ways to the 0z run last night. New GFS is jumpier than the old one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I can't wait till the first stretch of multiple days I can go outside without a jacket. Well, we had a few of those days in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Really? Tracker and I are offended. You get a pass.. for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18 z gfs was a step towards what we need. It was, the 500 is quite a bit better than the 12Z version. Almost identical in many ways to the 0z run last night. New GFS is jumpier than the old one. Totally agree. It's not great, but it is a step back in the right direction. The vort pass looks better, and the 850 low looks a bit stronger (though it still skims to our north). GFS does seem to have been all over the place with this; not sure if it's endemic to the new version or just this particular system. We'll see if this is a blip or something real that will continue for the better. Hard to say at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18 z gfs was a step towards what we need. It was, the 500 is quite a bit better than the 12Z version. Co-sign. Still would like it about 50-100 miles farther south, but it went the right direction on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 You get a pass.. for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Co-sign. Still would like it about 50-100 miles farther south, but it went the right direction on this run. One more jog south and the gif comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Co-sign. Still would like it about 50-100 miles farther south, but it went the right direction on this run. So would I. Right now I can see this thing skipping right over my area and nailing both west and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM will be south of 18z this run at least it looks that way at 57 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The NAM is a pretty good hit. Looks like the low might jump just to our south. Predicts a solid .25 plus with temps around 33 or so. It's a nice step towards snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Damn....nam. Hard not to be reeled back in by this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The NAM is a pretty good hit. Looks like the low might jump just to our south. Predicts a solid .25 plus with temps around 33 or so. It's a nice step towards snow. Man, 50 miles south and it would be close to a regionwide low end warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 If we cant trust this model 24 hours out...why even look at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Guess we all got named tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 If we cant trust this model 24 hours out...why even look at it you couldn't get a date with a SI swimsuit model, but you'd look at her Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Damn....nam. Hard not to be reeled back in by this run. Like that scene near the beginning of Shawshank Redemption..."we're reelin' 'em in!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I can feel the clipper pain already. I envision a fading radar here blowing up just to my east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 You get a pass.. for now. Who pays you for your forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 you couldn't get a date with a SI swimsuit model, but you'd look at her Many people have said my wife looks like kathy ireland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I can feel the clipper pain already. I envision a fading radar here blowing up just to my east. Its very close to being good for everyone. Besides we will do well tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Its very close to being good for everyone. Besides we will do well tomorrow night. NAM is 0.19 at KOKV so not bad I guess. I hope WxUSAF gets his wish of 75 miles further south. Might get real then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM puts out .61" qpf at BWI for this event and it's ALL SNOW http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kbwi.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The NAM is a pretty good hit. Looks like the low might jump just to our south. Predicts a solid .25 plus with temps around 33 or so. It's a nice step towards snow. Yeah, NAM really looks way better tonight. Maybe the Mitchnick rule is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yeah, NAM really looks way better tonight. Maybe the Mitchnick rule is true. if you look at the precip, it is eerily similar to yesterday's in NVA and MD as far as cut-off/areas with qpf for example, while BWI gets .61", PHL gets .25" yesterday, BWI did real well and PHL got screwed relatively speaking with qpf EDIT: apparently, something to do with the location of the mean trough this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM puts out .61" qpf at BWI for this event and it's ALL SNOW http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kbwi.txt Sweat index could be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 So, unless I'm looking at the wrong maps, GFS is MUCH further south at 57 hours at h5 vs 18z at 63 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 So, unless I'm looking at the wrong maps, GFS is MUCH further south at 57 hours at h5 vs 18z at 63 hours It's is. H5 and lp track better. We'll see where it goes but nice improvement early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's is. H5 and lp track better. We'll see where it goes but nice improvement early on. oh yeah, looking at 60 hrs, she's heading on south this run EDIT: vs. 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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