Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Over/under 1" at DCA. Under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 When you lead the bearish crowd it puts the fear of God in me. It may be for the best though, because my expectations are so low I can't really get heartbroken lol. Good thing. Because this has all the earmarks of a classic mid atlantic screw job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 DT's first call for DC is 3-6". Pretty much hugging the Euro I guess. Or the 0z NAM (lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 my gut tells me atmospheric imbalances from the Swallows on their way back to Capistrano have interfered with the ingestion of accurate data in the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 When you lead the bearish crowd it puts the fear of God in me. It may be for the best though, because my expectations are so low I can't really get heartbroken lol. I've lived here for 37 of the last 44 years and have been punched in the face by a lot of similar evolutions. Sometimes they do surprise but I'll never ever bet on it. If it happens great. I'm mentally prepared for the worst. Beating the 3.8" from the 1/6 storm is still possible but an uphill battle from what I'm seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This is the NAM that gave us 6" of snow during a rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Talk about model chaos as well as atmospheric chaos. This won't become clear until tomorrows midday runs, if then. Too many changes taking place in too short a time. Sort of like how are server has been reacting to everyone's interest in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Great run Oh but you know it will not hold up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Talk about model chaos as well as atmospheric chaos. This won't become clear until tomorrows midday runs, if then. Too many changes taking place in too short a time. Sort of like how are server has been reacting to everyone's interest in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Talk about model chaos as well as atmospheric chaos. This won't become clear until tomorrows midday runs, if then. Too many changes taking place in too short a time. Sort of like how are server has been reacting to everyone's interest in this storm. then it's not a forecast, it's a nowcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Seems like most big storms start this way. Suddenly the models pick up on it like 36 hours out. Then they go wacky due to what seems like a overload of info. I have a feeling the GFS will make us forget about the pos NAM. I've been "NAM'ED" too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 my gut tells me atmospheric imbalances from the Swallows on their way back to Capistrano have interfered with the ingestion of accurate data in the NAM YOU MADE ME LAUGH. THANK YOU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The NAM gives IAD more snow than NYC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NOT quite the same thing... EURO has massive lzziard for NJ NYC PHL NAM has NO snow for those areas20" of snow si not the same as 1 " or less DT's first call for DC is 3-6". Pretty much hugging the Euro I guess. Or the 0z NAM (lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NO wonder JI thinks its a good run... the good news is that reality says its not The NAM gives IAD more snow than NYC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NOT quite the same thing... EURO has massive lzziard for NJ NYC PHL NAM has NO snow for those areas 20" of snow si not the same as 1 " or less I know. The reference to the NAM was a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This would be my guess. I think its pretty solid actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 how can it be a trend since it total reversal the last run ? East trend on the NAM I suppose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Over/under 1" at DCA. Over. But not by much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 then it's not a forecast, it's a nowcast the 18z GFS run was forming the secondary off the SC coast which I think was a big change in 6 hours. Then straight up the coast. Sort of like the 12z EURO?. The NAM has problems within 24 hours with a cold front. Out of its league with this set-up imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 how can it be a trend since it total reversal the last run ? What are you trying to say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 yeah... last time MILLER b did that was when? This would be my guess. I think its pretty solid actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NO wonder JI thinks its a good run... the good news is that reality says its not Get a grip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This would be my guess. I think its pretty solid actually I'm just waiting with bated breath for my car top covering of rain drops. Dale City is definitely a raintown. My backyard's a quagmire, whats a quarter inch more of rain, with more on the way for Monday night geeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 yeah... last time MILLER b did that was when? Is there a reason why you need to act like a d to everyone who doesn't have the exact same thoughts as you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 You can see on the 4K loop that 95 and the Bay are like a damn wall for the precip. It just dies right on the doorstep. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam4km®ion=neus&pkg=ref&runtime=2015012500&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=582 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM hass 2 " of snow in RICHMOND from a clipper ??... sure ... happens all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This would be my guess. I think its pretty solid actually That's a rather bizarre forecast given most model trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 well if it pisses you off its worth it Is there a reason why you need to act like a d to everyone who doesn't have the exact same thoughts as you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 well if it pisses you you its worth it Please type in some legible form if you're going to insult everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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