Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I'd be thrilled with the nam. Basically keeps the shield nw of the developing low offshore intact through the process. Confidence in the nam with a complicated system is low but I'd be completely happy with this run if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 ain't over either at this point http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=057ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_057_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150124+18+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The front end thump is better than 12Z for sure. It reminds me of the CMC actually. 0.50"+ QPF for the eastern panhandle of WV through 45h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It is like +2 at 950mb (at 06z). NAM temps though, so likely wrong. That's 36 though. even it looks like it might be mild because we barely miss the better rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It might be rain at 36 but pretty sure this isn't rain Right, the problem is that from 06z to 15z or so where it is probably snow, there is like 0.1". Then we have to depend on the wraparound backing up to us. This could easily turn out to be a 1" snowfall for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I'd be thrilled with the nam. Basically keeps the shield nw of the developing low offshore intact through the process. Confidence in the nam with a complicated system is low but I'd be completely happy with this run if it happens. great run imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Right, the problem is that from 06z to 15z or so where it is probably snow, there is like 0.1". Then we have to depend on the wraparound backing up to us. This could easily turn out to be a 1" snowfall for DC. great run imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Right, the problem is that from 06z to 15z or so where it is probably snow, there is like 0.1". Then we have to depend on the wraparound backing up to us. This could easily turn out to be a 1" snowfall for DC. Yeah I see what you're saying in theory though for most of the panels we just barely miss the better rates that are often surrounding us. I'd be surprised if we see much rain with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 perspective and location I guess still snowing at 57 hrs too http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=057ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_057_700_rh_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150124+18+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 He's not wrong. Verbatim it is a decent run for DC north. I just don't buy the amount of snow on the backside. Without that, we are in a tough spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spud Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Back up!! Just in time for the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 AND WE ARE BACK! NAM PLEASE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 We are back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 From DT.... Rule #1 one when you are dealing with explosive and rapid developing MILLER B Low pressure areas... Is that somebody in the northeast or the Middle Atlantic states is going to get screwed. Someone is going to expect a significant amount of snow but they will end up seeing very little. Want to guess who that will be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Welcome back AmWx. Good thing the site crashed on such a slow weather news day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I've only killed two people because of the site being down. Oh well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM through 24 has 1006mb SLP in N KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Trough she's a digging. C'mon negative tilt! Already more neutral at 18hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 although NCEP hasn't updated, SREF mean is way up from last run and thanks to all for getting it back up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yes! Finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Come on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM looks a little warm, I think the freezing line is north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Come on install the damn Zend optimizer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Even for DCA? They looked meh when I looked, but I never look at SREFs.. that's what was posted over in the accuwx forum from a few diff people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 that's what was posted over in the accuwx forum from a few diff peopleTrue, I did say that over there Mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Come on install the damn Zend optimizer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Not as much of a disaster as the 18z 4km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM looks a touch warm to me. No snow in DC metro as 34 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Any idea when the AmWx Model Center will be up and running again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Trough axis is about the same as 18z at 27 hrs, but looks to be slightly more positive tilted. Not that it means much at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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