clueless Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 assume they are just riding temps for now .. Or something Or something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 assume they are just riding temps for now .. Or something Winter Storm Watch for increasing clouds and Flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Nam is very similar to 12z. I think it will tick west because the second S/W is digging ever so slightly faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 EPS mean for frozen in DC is 4-5". 10"+ the eastern shore. 6" halfway between Annapolis and DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 45... SLP getting ready between ILM and OBX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Correct me if I'm wrong, but the axis of the 500mb trough is better at 45, neutral as opposed to slightly positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 45... SLP getting ready between ILM and OBX? Too far off shore.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Too far off shore.. What are you out to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Or something... Might be SREF. It's consistently highlighted that area for precip. I know WPC likes SREF and think it goes into those accum product maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The NAM somehow rains on us. No snow accumulation through 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Too far off shore.. We need it getting ready between MYR and ILM, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I am not worried about the 18z run. It is just an extension of the 12z. I am waiting for the 0z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 What are you out to? 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 nam's close http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=045ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_045_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150124+18+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 NAM targets the WSW area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 48 hr sim/rad look at that stream of precip headed NNW off the coast http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_048_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150124+18+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The front end thump is better than 12Z for sure. It reminds me of the CMC actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I am not worried about the 18z run. It is just an extension of the 12z. I am waiting for the 0z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The NAM somehow rains on us. No snow accumulation through 45. I haven't looked at soundings but not sure how that's rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The NAM somehow rains on us. No snow accumulation through 45. Not saying the NAM is wrong but we have seen it too north many times. Honestly using the NAM at 48 hours isn't much different from using the RAP at 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Today's Euro looks real good right up until the panel it spreads the initial precip in the area. Definitely looked as though it should have been wetter for the front end, it just shears the precip too much or else we would be talking another .10-.15 in the first 24 hour period. I dunno I kind of like our chances with a dynamic system for back up wrap around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I haven't looked at soundings but not sure how that's rain? NAM takes a really long time to cool surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The NAM somehow rains on us. No snow accumulation through 45. Wouldn't that be the ultimate kick in the nuts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I dunno I kind of like our chances with a dynamic system for back up wrap around. there's still a chance on this nam run, but probably just miss http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=045ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_045_200_wnd_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=200_wnd_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150124+18+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I haven't looked at soundings but not sure how that's rain? It is like +2 at 950mb (at 06z). NAM temps though, so likely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 NAM takes a really long time to cool surface It might be rain at 36 but pretty sure this isn't rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Nam might give me a touch of rain but then the column would be cold enough to for, it backs precip in like the Euro, I think that's the biggest take away. As Matt notes, it's out of its range but it also has jumped completely way from it earlier forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 That's a lot of panels in a row with 0.10 for maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 nam does fine this run does give us some coastal love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It might be rain at 36 but pretty sure this isn't rain THat's why you look at soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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